Genug Shoyn Mit warm and brown! Is Jan 19-20 a storm to shift the vibe?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like south of rt 2 or so will have to wait until an Orchids of Asia happy ending.

[DJln491]

13 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nice thump on the nam with the first batch down to maybe route 2-ish, and especially closer to the NH border on north. 

looks a tick or two colder as well for NE in general.  that in itself makes me happy

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like south of rt 2 or so will have to wait until an Orchids of Asia happy ending.

Yeah this never looked good on the front end for SNE anywhere south of Rt 2....a few teaser RGEM runs aside. We know the deal on these....if it's not slamming N CT/S MA border on the model guidance, then I ignore for snow in the pike region.

The ULL hangback energy does look pretty interesting though. Could def see grabbing a couple to 3 inches from that if it works out. Hopefully it still looks good tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this never looked good on the front end for SNE....a few teaser RGEM runs aside. We know the deal on these....if it's not slamming N CT/S MA border on the model guidance, then I ignore for snow in the pike region.

The ULL hangback energy does look pretty interesting though. Could def see grabbing a couple to 3 inches from that if it works out. Hopefully it still looks good tomorrow.

Could be fun in a few spots with that. Soundings are decent, hopefully it looks good tomorrow as you said.

[wx2fish]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like south of rt 2 or so will have to wait until an Orchids of Asia happy ending.

I think it goes over the FZDZ or snizzle right into Central NH for a bit once the mid-level dryslot punches through. The DGZ completely dries out, then resaturates by late-morning/midday Friday. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wx2fish said:

I think it goes over the FZDZ or snizzle right into Central NH for a bit once the mid-level dryslot punches through. The DGZ completely dries out, then resaturates by late-morning/midday Friday. 

Man pack. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be fun in a few spots with that. Soundings are decent, hopefully it looks good tomorrow as you said.

It's too bad we don't have any type of antcedent airmass for this one...this would be a warning event right down to HFD-PVD line probably. All of the synoptic features are pretty classic for a solid SWFE for SNE with the one glaring exception of any type of cold antecedent airmass.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's too bad we don't have any type of antcedent airmass for this one...this would be a warning event right down to HFD-PVD line probably. All of the synoptic features are pretty classic for a solid SWFE for SNE with the one glaring exception of any type of cold antecedent airmass.

Yeah, not a ton of warm air flooding the coast, it's like a 34-36F rain lol. Oh well. Decent low track if we had a good airmass prior.

[mreaves]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm surprised the saps not flowing with these temps.

There were some sugar makers who boiled earlier this month.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

There were some sugar makers who boiled earlier this month.  

I'm sure, Days in the 30-40's, Nights in the teen 20's, Let it flow.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, not a ton of warm air flooding the coast, it's like a 34-36F rain lol. Oh well. Decent low track if we had a good airmass prior.

That’s why I was thinking ice the other day. 31-32 in NW CT up into WC Mass. 

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm sure, Days in the 30-40's, Nights in the teen 20's, Let it flow.

I think the producers with sealed vacuum systems it makes sense to try and capitalize on it. Always a risk vs reward for gravity/open air systems. Taps could dry out and lose the end of the season

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why I was thinking ice the other day. 31-32 in NW CT up into WC Mass. 

There's just very little sfc cold to tap into in this. You typically want to see cold draining from a good source and we don't have that until you are up in Maine.I think a band of sleet is prob more likely than ZR....somewhere betwen the MA/NH border and down to near the pike could get pelted for a while...esp in the latter stages of the first wave of precip. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I think the producers with sealed vacuum systems it makes sense to try and capitalize on it. Always a risk vs reward for gravity/open air systems. Taps could dry out and lose the end of the season

More up here are going that way too, More efficient.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM still trying to hit the pike hard on the front end....not buying it....but it's a good sign for like Ray's area and the far S NH peeps that the NAM ticked colder and the RGEM didn't tick warmer.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM still trying to hit the pike hard on the front end....not buying it....but it's a good sign for like Ray's area and the far S NH peeps that the NAM ticked colder and the RGEM didn't tick warmer.

And it’s noticeably colder too. I agree, not biting but it’s being stubborn. Probably good for people like Ray. 

[Cyclone-68]

At least I got a good 12 hours of snow cover 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And it’s noticeably colder too. I agree, not biting but it’s being stubborn. Probably good for people like Ray. 

I could see a brief period of steady snow/sleet down to the pike near the end of round 1....esp over eastern areas. Even the NAM had it kind of collapsing before it shuts off. So maybe something to watch if that process happens a little faster.

 

There have been a few events where the RGEM was a cold outlier and won. I want to say the March 23, 2020 storm and the Jan 23-24, 2017 storm where both times the RGEM had marginal snow profiles down into the pike region and both times it flashed over in the middle of the storm....the 2017 storm was that weird cutoff with like no cold air but the ORH hills maybe benefited from upslope cooling to turn mostly sleet into a lot of snow mixed in and we got like 4-5" of really dense stuff.

 

But I won't be biting unless we see other guidance continue the colder trend.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I'm surprised the saps not flowing with these temps.

Sun plays a role in that from what conversation with sappers and maple syrup folk.  

I 'think' that sun warms the tree limbs and that starts evaporation off the ends, setting that into motion. 

[mreaves]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

More up here are going that way too, More efficient.

There have been some huge scale operations that have been set up over the last 10-15 years here in VT.  100 -150,000 taps is not unusual to hear about now.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Nice thump on the nam with the first batch down to maybe route 2-ish, and especially closer to the NH border on north. 

yeah it's been remarkably consistent with that axis... 

I looked at the old FOUS grid. It maintains essentially an isothermic 0C sounding through 800 mb over Logan, with .53" QPF ... hmm..  The numbers were 0C, 0C, +1C,  at 980, 900, and 800 mb respectively.

Not sure that much QPF loaded through a column like that would necessarily be rain... Comparing those numbers to the synoptic tapestry, it's near-by.  Probably that's +2, +2, +4 just south of Logan out along the Pike  - first batch...    

IF IF IF that layout verifies, we probably end up with 6" along Rt 2, ranging to almost nothing along the Pike. 

That may chap some winter enthusiast asses but ...I don't make the rules of these games.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sun plays a role in that from what conversation with sappers and maple syrup folk.  

I 'think' that sun warms the tree limbs and that starts evaporation off the ends, setting that into motion. 

The sun can be very damaging to fruit trees during these warmups when it gets the sap flowing and then it freezes hard overnight. Look up "southwest injury" .

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The sun can be very damaging to fruit trees during these warmups when it gets the sap flowing and then it freezes hard overnight. Look up "southwest injury" .

Oh yeah - can imagine that's the case with intuitive ease.    It's really also no different than a late cold snap -it's the same principle at either ends.   Bottom line ...can't refreeze or your refucked

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sun plays a role in that from what conversation with sappers and maple syrup folk.  

I 'think' that sun warms the tree limbs and that starts evaporation off the ends, setting that into motion. 

The wind has an effect to it as well and we've had plenty of that too.

[TalcottWx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I could see a brief period of steady snow/sleet down to the pike near the end of round 1....esp over eastern areas. Even the NAM had it kind of collapsing before it shuts off. So maybe something to watch if that process happens a little faster.

 

There have been a few events where the RGEM was a cold outlier and won. I want to say the March 23, 2020 storm and the Jan 23-24, 2017 storm where both times the RGEM had marginal snow profiles down into the pike region and both times it flashed over in the middle of the storm....the 2017 storm was that weird cutoff with like no cold air but the ORH hills maybe benefited from upslope cooling to turn mostly sleet into a lot of snow mixed in and we got like 4-5" of really dense stuff.

 

But I won't be biting unless we see other guidance continue the colder trend.

Sounds like I'm too far West for the front end, and the ULL.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Nice thump on the nam with the first batch down to maybe route 2-ish, and especially closer to the NH border on north. 

Isothermal basically up to H75. We'll see...

[dryslot]

GFS stuck in neutral.

[jbenedet]

The 6z EPS pops the secondary about 3-6 hours earlier than the 12zNAM. If we take the EPS run verbatim and shift 12zNAM 850 thermals accordingly, the risk is asymmetrically tilted in favor of more snow where 850 is the warm layer, and surface sufficiently cold. Worcester west/North, line for example. Could be talking a few more inches than the clowns advertise. We watch.

[wx2fish]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Isothermal basically up to H75. We'll see...

Yeah its dicey, definitely want the thumpier solutions with big lift for 3-4 hours

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any thoughts as to what might be falling around Wachusett during the afternoon on Thursday?

I'm leaning cold rain with some pingers... hopefully not in big amounts