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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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18 minutes ago, anotherman said:
  • New York City: This winter has gone the ninth longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Jan. 29.
  • Philadelphia: This winter has gone the 12th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 3, although no snow fell in the winter of 1972-73.
  • Atlantic City: This winter has gone the 13th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 16.
  • Baltimore: This winter has gone the 11th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 21.
  • Washington: This winter has gone the 16th longest without measurable snow. Its latest first measurable snow is Feb. 23.

Hey At least we are on pace.

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10 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?


.

it’ll be tough for ensemble means to do that until a shortwave is identified, which is absolute hell in this type of pattern

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27 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?


.

Pretty sure that's right where we want it at this range. Oh wait (flips frantically thru weenie handbook) nevermind. 

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19 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Fine I’ll do it. Don’t hate me please. Anyone find it at least a little concerning that H5 looks great on EPS, but there’s little if any members showing snow in the next 15 days?
 

Not overly. I’m more concerned it’s just wrong about the pattern. There is a wave around the 20th that’s going to go north of us. But it’s also very likely the next wave around the 23-25 does also. Imo it’s likely to take multiple waves to establish a cold enough regime. That puts our first good opportunity near the very end of the eps run. And by then the war is getting beat down and it looks like a more favorable setup Imo. The mean does start to increase some at the very end. I bet if it went out another 72 hours you would see something. 
 

But ya it is concerning that the pattern on the eps only seems to cool temps to near avg.  It should be way colder. But we aren’t having that talk again. Personally if we get the eps pattern and it’s too warm I’d rather find that out and know. Then at least we can end the debate!  

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

not much support from EPS & GEPS tho. GEPS has a transient SE ridge but we turn to cold again w/ no end in sight at the end of the run

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18 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

not much support from EPS & GEPS tho. GEPS has a transient SE ridge but we turn to cold again w/ no end in sight at the end of the run

All 3 are better than now though so we’ll get what we get and make a huge fit. Is that how that saying goes?

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

All 3 are better than now though so we’ll get what we get and make a huge fit. Is that how that saying goes?

Yep they all look reasonably favorable going forward, and we are getting into prime snow climo. There should be chances if something close to those h5 looks verify. Beyond that, we just can't know.

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