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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2023


IrishRob17
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Aside from tonight per the attached NWS 5AM map (northern edge might be too far north?)
 
Next general wintry mix risk I-84 corridor is Thursday-Friday. This storm has become more complicated so confidence is low on expectations and changes will probably occur in future modeling. A little snow is possible Thursday, and then ice or snow early Friday, changing to rain everywhere. This may provide some travel slow down complications. Meanwhile for nw NJ this seems to be mostly rain. Eventually when this storm moves away later in the weekend, it may end as period of snow but any accumulations would be generally reserved for the Poconos.
 

 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:
Aside from tonight per the attached NWS 5AM map (northern edge might be too far north?)
 
Next general wintry mix risk I-84 corridor is Thursday-Friday. This storm has become more complicated so confidence is low on expectations and changes will probably occur in future modeling. A little snow is possible Thursday, and then ice or snow early Friday, changing to rain everywhere. This may provide some travel slow down complications. Meanwhile for nw NJ this seems to be mostly rain. Eventually when this storm moves away later in the weekend, it may end as period of snow but any accumulations would be generally reserved for the Poconos.
 

 

 

68DE07ED-CC06-4188-A50C-4F03EBA81274.png

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20 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

68DE07ED-CC06-4188-A50C-4F03EBA81274.png

I think the models are getting there but too late...  warmth has arrived before this picture so its just rain except maybe an inch or 2 of snow I84 corridor Thursday and maybe a little back side.  A receding high is not good news. 

 

Let's just enjoy what comes down tomorrow morning at 4,5,6,7   I84, I80 and I78 corridors.  

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On 1/8/2023 at 3:00 AM, gravitylover said:

I think my total is around 2" :tomato:

 

On 1/8/2023 at 11:10 AM, IrishRob17 said:

7.8"

 

17 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I got a dusting :snowing: 

 

15 hours ago, Hitman said:

Partial dusting

Good morning all. The Atmospheres PAC Swiffer, in short order, took care of the postage stamp. Any resemblance to Anthony’s former avatars is purely coincidental.  Stay well, as always …

 

61C3EC2F-B0FD-4FF0-A4D5-6C82ADFCB044.jpeg

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Yes, I'm still having fun on the edge of the I84 corridor!  Next hope to see something a little white for the I84 corridor is midnight tonight to about midday Thursday with amounts mainly hills (1/2" or less) and maybe top it off with an hour or 2 of ice Thursday before the change to 33F rain-drizzle.  All ensembles have this very minor snowfall but conservative is the way I have to look at this. 

19th is of interest til modeling makes it too warm for snow or ice.

 

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So far as of 655AM, 0.1" snow sleet and slippery all untreated surface. Temp was 32.5 prior to the start, then fell to 32.0 now. I think the NAM3K temps will be helpful today...VERY slow rise.

Also I am paying attention to Tue 1/17 and especially Thu-Fri 1/19-20 as possible ice related event.

 

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18 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Pretty impressive lightning out there and thunder snow is much preferred in January rather than a regular thunderstorm. Just saying. 

Thunder by you now?

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
631 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067>069-130000-
Western Passaic NJ-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Orange NY-
631 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Passaic,
Orange, western Putnam and Rockland Counties through 700 PM EST...

At 630 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms centered over Warwick, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Middletown, Ringwood, Monroe, Walden, West Point, Warwick,
Goshen, Sloatsburg, Cold Spring, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Chester,
Montgomery and Greenwood Lake.
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27 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Thunder by you now?

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
631 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067>069-130000-
Western Passaic NJ-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Orange NY-
631 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Passaic,
Orange, western Putnam and Rockland Counties through 700 PM EST...

At 630 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms centered over Warwick, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Newburgh, Middletown, Ringwood, Monroe, Walden, West Point, Warwick,
Goshen, Sloatsburg, Cold Spring, New Windsor, Gardnertown, Chester,
Montgomery and Greenwood Lake.

I was driving but didn’t notice thunder. 

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Looking ahead:  Aside from what eastern MA and far eastern CT receive from the grazing large ocean storm this Sunday into Monday... it still looks interesting to me for our NYC subforum of the I84 corridor. You saw the spotty 1" amounts yesterday in the Catskills and nw CT, with many reports 0.1-0.7".  My perception of what may be ahead and temporarily worthy of monitoring until it does its northeast winter 22-23 M.O. fade to nothing. 

Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor.  Significant winter storm compared to what we've had since Christmas, with for now mostly ice to rain I84 corridor but could see some snow involved.  Potential for slippery travel, especially high terrain I84.  The Canadian Model (overall worlds second or third best model) has been persistent about this occurrence since January 8th.

The following week of Sunday the 22nd-Friday 27th poses one or two wintry weather challenges for the northeast USA, particularly the I84 corridor northward. LOOOONNG ways off=uncertainty on precip type. 

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6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Looking ahead:  Aside from what eastern MA and far eastern CT receive from the grazing large ocean storm this Sunday into Monday... it still looks interesting to me for our NYC subforum of the I84 corridor. You saw the spotty 1" amounts yesterday in the Catskills and nw CT, with many reports 0.1-0.7".  My perception of what may be ahead and temporarily worthy of monitoring until it does its northeast winter 22-23 M.O. fade to nothing. 

Thursday-Friday Jan 19-20 I84 corridor.  Significant winter storm compared to what we've had since Christmas, with for now mostly ice to rain I84 corridor but could see some snow involved.  Potential for slippery travel, especially high terrain I84.  The Canadian Model (overall worlds second or third best model) has been persistent about this occurrence since January 8th.

The following week of Sunday the 22nd-Friday 27th poses one or two wintry weather challenges for the northeast USA, particularly the I84 corridor northward. LOOOONNG ways off=uncertainty on precip type. 

Today’s 12z runs are more favorable for the 19-20th event,(still waiting on the Euro run). We’ll see if they start keeping with continuity for the next couple of days.

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