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January 2023 Banter


George BM
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Check out the 8200' webcam tonight! I have lost track of how many days in a row they have been getting blasted by snow, but another atmospheric river is gonna dump about four MORE feet of pow on them over the MLK weekend. https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

There is already yet ANOTHER storm behind that, too.

I need to go up there and help them dig out, with one of my patented Jebman Shovels.

YOU HAVE GOT TO CHECK OUT THIS BLOG!!!!!!

Jan 10th: Ripping and Riding an Atmospheric River

https://blog.palisadestahoe.com/conditions/jan-10th-ripping-and-riding-an-atmospheric-river/

With 8.5 FEET of new snow so far this month they are absolutely getting JanuBuried !!!!!!

Yeah. I am definitely getting my SNOW FIX.........

And then some!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

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Sitting here listening to every sports program heaping praise on the Giants and picking them to win I'm starting to wonder if the Vikings should even show up....maybe just mail it in I suppose. I'm already on to baseball anyway....how about that Correa signing?!?!

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4 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Sitting here listening to every sports program heaping praise on the Giants and picking them to win I'm starting to wonder if the Vikings should even show up....maybe just mail it in I suppose. I'm already on to baseball anyway....how about that Correa signing?!?!

I honestly have no idea what will happen, but the teams played a close game a few weeks ago and it’ll probably be the same.  
 

The Twins need to stay healthy.  Last season was a disaster by midway thought the season.

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Don't look now, but...............................

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
308 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

CAZ072-NVZ002-132315-
/O.UPG.KREV.WS.A.0004.230114T1200Z-230118T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KREV.WS.W.0003.230114T1200Z-230117T1800Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
308 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY...

* CHANGES...Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter
  Storm Warning.

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations through
  Tuesday of 1-2 feet for the Tahoe Basin, except 3 to 5 feet
  above 7000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 100 mph.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. Strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Multiple storms will move through this
  weekend and early next week. While snow will begin on Friday
  afternoon, the heaviest snowfall rates and wider spread impacts
  are expected on Saturday and Monday with a brief lull in
  intensity on Sunday. Snow levels for Friday 5500-6000 feet,
  then falling to valley floors Saturday night. Travel will become
  hazardous, especially for Saturday and Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

 

 

And this folks, is on top of the nine FEET of fresh pow, that they have already gotten just in the New Year alone!

They're getting Janu-Buried, or they are about to be!

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Just gotta love their Area Forecast Disco, I actually got a few chuckles out of it......

 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
105 PM PST Thu Jan 12 2023

.SYNOPSIS...

Enjoy the break in the weather today, another period of active
weather returns this weekend and into early next week. Expect
additional disruptions to travel and mountain recreation through
the weekend as periods of heavy snow return to the Sierra. The
active pattern is forecast to continue through much of next week
with a period of drier conditions likely for the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

All together now, breathe in, breathe out. This break in the action
is short-lived so we should all take some time to appreciate the
relative quiet and be present in this moment. Well, enough of that,
we are gearing up for yet another active period...starting
tomorrow. Taking a look at satellite imagery over the Pacific
Ocean, we see yet another system lurking over the open waters and
closing in on the West Coast.

Today`s general flow pattern will bring southeasterly winds through,
allowing for some warmer air to filter in. Our temperatures will
hover just above average ahead of the next round, bringing snow
levels ranging 7000-8500` for the afternoon. Highs will top out for
today for most of us in the mid-to-upper 40s, then overnight lows
will dip as the storm moves in overhead. Sierra locations will
see 20s, while the western Nevada valleys will hover near
freezing. Well, that portion of the discussion was brief and
pleasant, now onto the weekend series of systems.

Wind gusts pick up tonight with ridges gusting to 65+ mph, a
precursor of things to come. For Friday morning wind gusts get even
more excited, ridges gusting around 85 mph just ahead of the
precipitation moving in. We get right into the action starting early
Friday, when the first in our series of storms brings snow showers
back to the Sierra, and begins to disrupt travel over the range. For
western Nevada valleys, little to no accumulation is expected as the
spillover potential is underwhelming. Anything that falls in the
valleys will be rain or a light mix. The Tahoe Basin could see 2-5"
of new snowfall with higher amounts on the western shores. Sierra
passes could see 8-12" out of this first round. Snow totals for Mono
County will be lighter, with areas west of Hwy 395 getting 3-8".
This will be minor in comparison to what is to come Saturday, but
will be enough to create some travel headaches, especially for
mountain passes. If you plan to travel through the weekend, be sure
to check current road conditions via CalTrans or NDOT.

If the western Nevada valleys were thinking we were leaving them out
of the excitement, they get their turn starting Saturday. Snow
levels begin to fall between 5000-5500` for Saturday, bringing snow
into the foothills. Snow will become heavy for the Sierra during the
day, when we will again be measuring in feet for The Tahoe Basin up
to the passes. Elevations below the snow line will see rain/snow mix
during the day, changing over to snow after dark. This will bring
light totals to the valley floors overnight, with 0.5-1" possible.

Although Sunday will be a relative break in the action, with lighter
snowfall overall, there will still be snow accumulating in the
Sierra. An additional 3-5" is possible for the Tahoe Basin, Sierra
passes could see another 6-8".

I wish I could say we were expecting a break after the weekend, but
that would be a lie. Monday into Tuesday is shaping up to be yet
another potent round of snowfall for the Sierra. A bit of
uncertainty remains with timing and snow totals, but a preliminary
glance suggests at least another foot or so for the Tahoe Basin,
Sierra passes could see another 1-2`.

Looking beyond Tuesday, we see this album just keeps skipping, with
the same old story of more active weather into Wednesday. The first
break appears to be Friday, when ridging starts to take control of
our weather pattern and offer some light at the end of this snowy,
wet tunnel. HRICH

&&
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On 1/11/2023 at 6:23 PM, Terpeast said:

Was considering a family chase to either Blackwater or Snowshow this weekend, but now we are a no go. 

2 year old daughter sprung a 103 fever. Going to call the doctor soon.

At this moment, snow or lack thereof has zero significance.

Those kinds of temps are scary with kids. My youngest went through that back in the fall. She is 16 but at your daughters age it just zaps them down. 
 

Hope she is feeling better. And hope you are doing ok. Hugs 

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5 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

I was a senior in high school for that one...oddly don't remember it well but it looks like it was a great one.

The deformation band was just puking snow. It started out slowly the 2nd half of Saturday Feb 11 but by midnight (NW of Philly) it was ripping. Had a lull around daybreak, then the deathband pressed thru with sustained 35mph winds and thunder for about 45 minutes.....rates of 3-4"/hr.

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3 hours ago, Mrs.J said:

Those kinds of temps are scary with kids. My youngest went through that back in the fall. She is 16 but at your daughters age it just zaps them down. 
 

Hope she is feeling better. And hope you are doing ok. Hugs 

She’s better. Still running a temp but not as dramatic. Bit fussy but otherwise seems to be getting back to normal. Thank you for the kind words.

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20 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

I was a senior in high school for that one...oddly don't remember it well but it looks like it was a great one.

I vaguely remember that one being more of an overnight system while I was living in Bethesda, though I might have been at my gf's place in Arlington for that particular one.

Here's the radar loop from it...looks pretty healthy:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=0&minute=0

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9 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I vaguely remember that one being more of an overnight system while I was living in Bethesda, though I might have been at my gf's place in Arlington for that particular one.

Here's the radar loop from it...looks pretty healthy:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=10&hour=0&minute=0

Thanks!  Looks like the ever elusive Miller A

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Currently watching home video of my wife, myself, and 2 dogs taking a Jebwalk under the death deformation band during the big Feb 2006 storm. Ahhh, memories. 

I did not get to experience this snowstorm. Was on the lower eastern shore of MD in college and it did not snow there. :( 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the issue is there is way too much crossover between the pattern and the fact it’s warming to avoid some bleed over. Because a lot of the analysis we do in winter is centered on “is it gonna snow” and the analysts we do of the long range pattern is grounded in historical precedence and expected outcomes, it’s relevant and stupid to just ignore it. The issue seems to be that when it comes up in relation to the pattern the simple mention of it upsets some. Some for emotional reasons some for political maybe I dunno, but that then starts a side debate about it and then veers off on a tangent and I get the result isn’t good.
 

Take today. I didn’t talk about climate change at all. I simply refuted some claims that “this is just a normal cyclical thing” by showing the data that this is the least snowy period ever. That’s it. Then I addressed some individual “causes” you brought up one by one and said there is more to this than to just keep cycling between different variables as a cause but I didn’t say the elephant in the room.  But we have to discuss what’s impacting the pattern right?  But that started 20 posts on climate change again because everyone knows what’s really going on. 
 

I do understand I just think it’s kinda silly and a lost cause. 

I dont disagree with a thing you're saying. Honestly. I'm trying to look for at the cause of things by utilizing those tools that have been studied and written about much deeper and longer ie enso, pdo, nam, mjo, etc. The whole (can't say the word) thing is still relatively in infancy of studies. You would be an AMAZING asset to that group.  You have alot to offer in that regard. I hope I didn't offend you which I probably didnt....I've been around long enough to know you are a debater with thick skin. Have a good one fellow PSU alum.

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7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We're the same now. Beat into submission or had some sense knocked into us. One or the other lol. 

I also agree with your thoughts. Epic turnaround is possible but imho, winter has spoken and it will make few happy in the east no matter what.

I don't agree that this is the "new normal". The mid Atlantic has had terrible stretches going back to the early 70s when my memory tape ends. Early 70s totally sucked until 76-77 and that was just frigid. Feb 79 turned me into a weenie. Then the early 80s came... I have plenty of memories of absent winter...

It may not snow as often but the string of big storms since 2000 is absolutely not what the 80s or 90s looked like. Or even the 70s. It's not like things fells off a cliff. Lol. It's pretty much the same types of winters we've been having. Mostly warm and disappointing with some zingers. 

I agree with you, Bob. We might lose a bit on the margins, but overall I don't believe we're staring at mild temperatures and inability to snow year on year.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am almost positive Ji was just trying to be funny.  But if he was actually being mean spirited, highly doubt it, then the way you responded wouldn't exactly have been the most effective way to deal with it anyways.   

How could I have responded better? Felt I had to defend myself

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