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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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On 5/15/2023 at 10:43 PM, high risk said:

 

      All good points.     As you said, our best potential for a good combination of shear and instability is that mid-May to mid-late-June period.    Events prior to that usually lack instability, and events later in summer often lack good shear.   That said, we still usually get a few severe watch boxes in July and maybe August, and a tornado season can occur in the fall if the tropics are active.

Going back to 2000 within the LWX CWA, the highest number of tornado years are ones with a landfalling tropical cyclone. The exception to that rule was 2012 when we had two "big" events.

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28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I know that June is our peak severe climo, but we're really in a valley when it comes to any interesting weather of late.

CIPS extended range is showing some hope late in the period... But it's at range and it's not any major signal. 

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Super long range GFS for June 13th has what looks like an EML plume potential severe event. It has been hinted on a few runs here and there the last few days but at that range - nothing consistent. Good mid-level lapse rates would be a rarity to see around here...paging @Eskimo Joe

image.thumb.png.cf9d0d4d0a447aa9bddbec10db9245d9.png

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5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Super long range GFS for June 13th has what looks like an EML plume potential severe event. It has been hinted on a few runs here and there the last few days but at that range - nothing consistent. Good mid-level lapse rates would be a rarity to see around here...paging @Eskimo Joe

image.thumb.png.cf9d0d4d0a447aa9bddbec10db9245d9.png

I heard thunder for the first time this month yesterday. 

Though not to this extent AND not implying that the pattern will repeat but... I remember 2012 being quite convection-wise before the end of May into June. :weenie::tomato::weenie:

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1 minute ago, George BM said:

I heard thunder for the first time this month yesterday. 

Though not to this extent AND not implying that the pattern will repeat but... I remember 2012 being quite convection-wise before the end of May into June. :weenie::tomato::weenie:

Well we all anecdotally know about the "rubber band" effect. Long periods of quiet often come to an end with an exciting bang...no guarantees...but this cool-ish and boring pattern will break eventually. 

And banking on heat/humidity and storms (how severe remains TBD) is always a safe bet in the DC area in summer. 

We'll see how it plays out over the next few weeks. 

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On 5/30/2023 at 12:23 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I don't think I've had a thunderstorm in several years. About as long as I haven't had snow, actually. New post-climate change normal is rather boring tbh

I've had quite a few good ones the last couple years here in Frederick...especially the stretch around August/September 2021.

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Day 3 MRGL is east of here, but the 12Z NAM Nest an HiResW FV3 have slower timing of the front, so convection is better timed for much more of the area.    Lapse rates are iffy, but shear is workable.     If this trend continues, Day 2 products issued tomorrow would move the MRGL back into our area.         

Let's get the timing first.    Then we can work on upgrading the environment to make it to SLGT.    B)

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9 minutes ago, high risk said:

Day 3 MRGL is east of here, but the 12Z NAM Nest an HiResW FV3 have slower timing of the front, so convection is better timed for much more of the area.    Lapse rates are iffy, but shear is workable.     If this trend continues, Day 2 products issued tomorrow would move the MRGL back into our area.         

Let's get the timing first.    Then we can work on upgrading the environment to make it to SLGT.    B)

I always say it - but often times things seem to speed up as we get closer. Not always - and may be solely anecdotal...but if lines of storms are expected 4-8pm - can usually bet on something coming through between 2 and 5

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Afternoon AFD from LWX hints at maybe a non zero tor threat

 

The aforementioned area of low pressure lifts and occludes into
southeastern Ontario, with a cold front draped southward through
the southeastern CONUS. The cold front is expected to traverse
the region during the afternoon and evening hours. High
temperatures reaching the mid 80s and dew points in the upper
60s to low 70s should provide plenty of instability for
thunderstorms to develop. This, paired with at least 30-40 kts
of deep-layer shear, could bring some severe thunderstorms to
the region during this time. Gusty winds would be the primary
threat with these storms. Will have to watch the areas around
the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River for any small variations in
surface winds however, as this may provide just enough
localized shear to produce a brief spin-up. This is a low-
probability scenario, but something worth mentioning.
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21 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I always say it - but often times things seem to speed up as we get closer. Not always - and may be solely anecdotal...but if lines of storms are expected 4-8pm - can usually bet on something coming through between 2 and 5

    I totally hear you on this, but I think there are 2 different types of "speeding up" with convection here.     There is the synoptic speed up, where the timing of the front and associated forcing end up arriving earlier, and things erupt on the other side of the Bay.     Then there is the speed up of just the actual propagating convection itself - the front is handled well and all, but the line perhaps initiates slightly earlier than progged and then moves east faster.

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

This is one of the quietest May--> June periods in my recent memory from a local severe wx standpoint. 

The NAM nest shows a chance for some storms tomorrow. 

Last year was very quiet as well. Has to be notable historically with how few thunderstorms we’ve had.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Last year was very quiet as well. Has to be notable historically with how few thunderstorms we’ve had.

Purely going off the supercell composite parameter - long range GFS isn't really excited about anything through the end of the run either. Unless there's something anomalous we may skip right into summer pulse-style storm season and skip over the "meaty" severe season locally. At least last year there were some decent storm days even if sub-severe. 

Pairing it with this past winter's lack of snow...this has been a really tame stretch for weather weenies in this area. I'm a big fan of the "rubber band" effect coming to get us at some point...but who knows...

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Season's going to be a dud. You can just feel it. If we had a closed low over Kentucky or Tennessee, maybe things would be interesting but this is just garbage. My pool isn't even 65 degrees.

Should we start putting all our chips into an August-Oct tropical threat for our weather weenie excitement?

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