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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)


Kmlwx
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22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason.

I was outside watching all the eagles flying around in the wind and then I heard the front coming in was pretty loud, one little bit of thunder and then it roared through here at 40 mph

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1 hour ago, 09-10 analogy said:

Seems as if Friday severe potential around here — such as it was— is evaporating as quickly as the winter storm potential did a few days ago. 
 

I’m sure we’ll get 5 or 6 Wind Advisories in the next week or two, though. Maybe a Dense Fog Advisory as well, to make things really memorable. 

I wasn't even watching it - seems any severe parameters were shunted south and east of us if anything. Meh. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD 

 

An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected
to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The
stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a
strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the
Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring
more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge
clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is
the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60
kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through
the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures
will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now
have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around
sunset.
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Saturday maybe? From afternoon LWX AFD 

 

An embedded shortwave within the broad upper trough is expected
to move into the Midwest and the Great Lakes on Saturday. The
stalled cold front to the south will advance northward as a
strong warm front associated the the low pressure system in the
Ohio Valley approaches from the west. This feature will bring
more rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms. Thunderstorm
chances will be dependent on how quickly the cold air wedge
clears out. If thunderstorm activity isn`t suppressed, there is
the potential for some severe given decent CAPE and around 60
kts of shear. Current guidance keeps the area wedged in through
the morning and possibly into the afternoon. High temperatures
will be dependent on the timing of wedge breaking, but for now
have upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area right around
sunset.

You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

You know how these things go, @yoda - wedge will win this time of year! But maybe we pull a miracle early season thunderstorm event for our sorrows of no snow during the winter. 

True... but its the only interesting weather we've got for a while... at least storm-wise... so maybe we get lucky

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Well surprise lol

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

MDC021-031-VAC107-240400-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-230324T0400Z/
Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA-
1143 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTH
CENTRAL FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHEASTERN
LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

At 1143 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near
Germantown, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Germantown, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Boyds,
Clarksburg, Darnestown, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Barnesville, Park
Mills, Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville and Tuscarora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 7753 3938 7738 3929 7715 3910 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 298DEG 43KT 3924 7735

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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Way too far out for any clarity - but here's a little shoutout for our area in the D4-8 outlook

Severe potential could continue eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and
   Southeast on Day 6/Saturday. A moist boundary-layer will exist
   across these areas ahead of the east/south advancing cold front.
   However, timing and location of the surface low and focus of strong
   shear/large-scale ascent is uncertain, and predictability is too low
   to delineate any areas at this time.
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By no means am I predicting anything similar...but the 500mb and surface low is not insanely dissimilar compared to April 28th, 2002 (La Plata) for this coming weekend. It even shows up as the last place ranked analog on one of the sectors on CIPS (had to go digging). GFS has the H5 pass much more positive but there's a lot of time to go. LWX had a good writeup in their afternoon discussion. I'm intrigued enough for this range...and this is a few weeks earlier than that event...but of course we are in a warmer climate since 2002 and again...H5 is not worlds apart. 

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It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. 

One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook. 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

It seems the models are keeping things positively tilted - 2002 was a negatively tilted trough as it went through the Great Lakes region. Again, never was saying it would be anything close to that...but the EC *was* yesterday more neutral/negative than the GFS but it seems to have gone more positive overnight. 

One thing that looks nice thus far is that the GFS has ample clearing on Saturday afternoon. It's still early in the season, but there could be some severe potential. We still got mentioned in the D4-8 outlook. 

Not convective severe but... what else stands out to you about this skew-t profile?

485271605_gfs_2023032806_fh108_sounding_77.78W76.45W38.56N39_53N.thumb.png.6d24818eb37b789ba7b82881c4bde6bf.png

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