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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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On 12/31/2022 at 10:55 AM, buckeyefan1 said:

*Raises glass*  :drunk:

Here's to the best second half of winter ever where fantasy blizzards lock in and verify and mood flakes fill the skies in between :snowing: :wub:  

Happy New Year to the best amwx has to offer, the SE CREW! :wub:  :snowing::drunk::snowwindow:

1673136000-ZQIcgNNcMUc.png

1674518400-w0UiSaJSZ2k.png

 

So how did this work out???

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 There's still no -AO/-NAO late on the ensemble means near the end of the month. If that were to verify along with no prospects for it in early March (say, on model runs two weeks from now), only then would I start to think that a multi-week long SSW generated -AO/-NAO isn't going to happen. But it is still very early with the major SSW not even becoming official (shift of 60N 10 mb winds from W to E) for another 3-4 days. Then there's the typical 2 or so week lag.

 So, we're still a good ~2-3 weeks from when this hypothetical SSW generated -AO/-NAO would typically get started. And as I've shown, the troposphere is notoriously much more difficult to forecast than the strat out just two weeks.

 So, the 12Z EPS like the others has no -AO/-NAO of significance at the end based on my eyeballing it. However, it and the 12Z GEFS do fwiw have a Scandinavian block that forms on Feb 25th as have the last 3 runs. What is needed for SE cold lovers is for that block to instead be 1,500 miles to the west.

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 There's still no -AO/-NAO late on the ensemble means near the end of the month. If that were to verify along with no prospects for it in early March (say, on model runs two weeks from now), only then would I start to think that a multi-week long SSW generated -AO/-NAO isn't going to happen. But it is still very early with the major SSW not even becoming official (shift of 60N 10 mb winds from W to E) for another 3-4 days. Then there's the typical 2 or so week lag.

 So, we're still a good ~2-3 weeks from when this hypothetical SSW generated -AO/-NAO would typically get started. And as I've shown, the troposphere is notoriously much more difficult to forecast than the strat out just two weeks.

 So, the 12Z EPS like the others has no -AO/-NAO of significance at the end based on my eyeballing it. However, it and the 12Z GEFS do fwiw have a Scandinavian block that forms on Feb 25th as have the last 3 runs. What is needed for SE cold lovers is for that block to instead be 1,500 miles to the west.

Ga… do you know when 2-3 weeks from now is? This isn’t Montana.

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Ga… do you know when 2-3 weeks from now is? This isn’t Montana.

 Indeed, I do. At 2-3 weeks from now, the SE is still at the tail end of prime winter storm season that goes into early March. Also, keep in mind that there were big SE winter storms in the first half of March during 1924, 1927, 1934, 1942, 1948, 1960 (3 of them), 1962, 1969, 1980, 1993, and 2009 along with quite a few more that were sub 4". We're actually due for the next one. Even way down here, there was 1"+ on 3/1/1986. Also, SAV's 2nd biggest snow on record was on Mar 3-4.

 The second half of March had big SE storms in 1940, 1971 and 1983 along with others that were sub 4".

 It is still too early to give up per climo!

*Edited to add more early March storms 

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This is definitely the worst winter I've seen for my backyard. Got a near 30 year record and have never seen a winter without measurable snowfall, and I imagine that streak goes back much much further. Definitely a few that cut it close but in the end there'd always be at least a dusting before all was said and done. Right now the only flakes I've seen were a few stray flurries the day after Christmas. I'm not giving up until climo says to, but I'm not optimistic at this point.

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45 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is definitely the worst winter I've seen for my backyard. Got a near 30 year record and have never seen a winter without measurable snowfall. Definitely a few that cut it close but in the end there'd always be at least a before all was said and done. Right now the only flakes I've seen were a few stray flurries the day after Christmas. I'm not giving up until climo says to, but I'm not optimistic at this point.

 Here the winter to date is tied for the all-time worst of no wintry precip. Of course, that's not saying much since the majority have been like that.

 Meanwhile, the major SSW is on schedule. What still isn't clear is whether or not a significant and longlasting -AO/-NAO period will follow by early March. There have been hints of that on certain runs, but nothing definitive.

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Not a good run of the Euro weeklies today if you want a cold March. This new run has a much weaker -AO/-NAO 2/27+ vs the prior run and is warmer than the old run. Not what I wanted to see although not surprising based on the fact that the prior run's 360 (for 2/24) already had a developing -AO/-NAO vs the 0Z of today still having what appears to me to still be a +AO/+NAO or at best neutral as of its end on 2/28.

 There's still time for it to change back but I'd like to see it trend back in that direction by the next run (Thursday).

 Don Sutherland agrees for the NE and you can see in his tweet on the maps that it is ~2 F warmer in the SE 2/27-3/5 on the new run vs old run with ~2 AN instead of NN.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a good run of the Euro weeklies today if you want a cold March. This new run has a much weaker -AO/-NAO 2/27+ vs the prior run and is warmer than the old run. Not what I wanted to see although not surprising based on the fact that the prior run's 360 (for 2/24) already had a developing -AO/-NAO vs the 0Z of today still having what appears to me to still be a +AO/+NAO or at best neutral as of its end on 2/28.

 There's still time for it to change back but I'd like to see it trend back in that direction by the next run (Thursday).

 Don Sutherland agrees for the NE and you can see in his tweet on the maps that it is ~2 F warmer in the SE 2/27-3/5 on the new run vs old run with ~2 AN instead of NN.

 

 

The pattern has been wash, rinse, repeat all winter. No reason to believe that's going to change now. 

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The 12Z EPS as well as 0Z GEFS/GFS/GEPS all are suggesting a -NAO period starts ~3/1-2. Based on the last weeks worth of 0Z GEFS runs, which go out much further than other runs, 3/1-2 has been the start of a -NAO. So, it isn't slipping back. Let's see what the 0Z EPS does.

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5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Starting to see a signal for a CAD event around the last week of the month. It's kinda more shocking we haven't had anything close to frozen from CAD this year than that we haven't had any snow. This time of year, cold rain is the more likely outcome though.

Actually in Greensboro, 90-91 had two ZR/Sleet events (as well as one period of light snow) and 91-92 had one light zr event (mid February).  So this year would be truly unprecedented if no more frozen fell through the end of the winter.

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3 hours ago, JoshM said:

GFS has went from 75 degrees at KCLT on 2/22 @ 18z to 39 degrees in just a few runs. We should keep an eye on that period, just to see how cold our rain will be.

6z clown map

gfs_asnow_seus_36.png

That would be a front ender if it verified (which it won't). It would be a snow to rain scenario depending on how long the CAD can hold.

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