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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 RDU received significant snowfall the last two late January's (2.7", 1.6"). Based on the ensembles as they look now, it appears that they'll have a halfway decent shot for a third wintry late January in a row. Anyone want to make a prediction on whether or not they'll get 1"+ of SN/IP and/or 0.10"+ of ZR between January 21st and 31st?

 This impending pattern change for late January looks fun to me and that's even with me having very little chance for wintry precip due to poor climo for that this far south. I just enjoy cold patterns. Many times in late January we don't have this kind of change to look forward to. So, I feel fortunate. In the meantime, the last week or so of wx here has been quite enjoyable for walking. I'm also looking forward to the upcoming cold weekend with highs of only 50-55 and lows of 30-35. The weekend looks to average ~8 BN with very low dewpoints. Great for outdoors!

I’d take +300 odds on that if you’re offering lol.  

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GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS and some of the hi-res models throw a little moisture back into eastern NC as the shortwave digs strengthening the LP offshore Saturday. This has trended with more lift/moisture in recent runs. Won’t be a big deal but with cold air rushing in there could be some snow showers over eastern NC Saturday 

Yep! And high and dry for the piedmont 

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_40.png

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7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yep! And high and dry for the piedmont 

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_40.png

If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the NAM is correct there would actually be some heavier squalls with some isolated accumulation with that look. Too bad the trough is positively tilted and this runs out not up, that’s a banger low that gets going quickly along the frontal boundary

Actually the clown map has an isolated area with 6"+. Which if anything like that happens would be hilarious, the way this winter has gone . It's funny because the mid Atlantic forum was drawn in by this wave a few days back.

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Actually the clown map has an isolated area with 6"+. Which if anything like that happens would be hilarious, the way this winter has gone . It's funny because the mid Atlantic forum was drawn in by this wave a few days back.

That would be one of the funnier random events to see new Bern get 3-4 inches out of an unexpected isolated snow band while most of the MA heads into February snowless 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well, the 6z Euro has it now too all the way back into central NC

I'm suspicious, but subtle trends make all the difference. I think it's too little, too late for the triad (besides we don't normally do well in these setups), but perhaps a glimmer of hope for the Triangle.

9341e96a-fc1a-4e76-a52f-410c1327cbb2.gif

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So you're telling me there's a chance:

Friday Night
A slight chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 1am and 4am, then a slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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On 1/11/2023 at 1:58 PM, GaWx said:

Longest -AO streaks back to 1950:

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days

-------------------

Current 11/23/2022-1/11/2023+: 50 days+

 

 0Z 1/11/23 GEFS 14 day fcast is even more emphatic about keeping the streak throughout, which would make 64+ days if verified, would mean at least a tie for third longest, and would then be only 5 days from tieing second place.

 At RDU, the current 50 day -AO streak  has averaged ~2 AN. We'll see where this ends up whenever the streak finally ends. If it were to end up AN or even NN, it would be notably mild vs the other four -AO streaks that were noted:

 

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 5 BN

2/2-4/11/1958: 6 BN

2/5-4/9/2013: 4 BN

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 6 BN

vs

11/23/2022-1/11/2023: 2 AN but streak ongoing

 Followup: Today's GEFS remains insistent on the -AO streak going at least another 14 days. That would then put it at 65 days and counting if it were to verify, the third longest on record and the longest since 1960!
 

 

Longest -AO streaks back to 1950:

12/25/1959-4/4/1960: 102 days

2/2-4/11/1958: 69 days

2/5-4/9/2013: 64 days

12/23/1962-2/23/1963: 63 days

-------------------

Current 11/23/2022-1/12/2023+: 51 days+

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 0Z Euro/CMC is a good bit colder than the torchy 0Z GFS in the SE in the 7-10 day, especially up at 850 mb. Also, the 0Z UKMET at day 7 is more similar to the Euro/CMC than the GFS. The 0Z Euro changed quite a bit late in the run. But that's the nature of operational volatility especially after day 7. So, lots of uncertainty coming towards next weekend. A little tweaking of the Euro and it could get interesting.

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z Euro/CMC is a good bit colder than the torchy 0Z GFS in the SE in the 7-10 day, especially up at 850 mb. Also, the 0Z UKMET at day 7 is more similar to the Euro/CMC than the GFS. The 0Z Euro changed quite a bit late in the run. But that's the nature of operational volatility especially after day 7. So, lots of uncertainty coming towards next weekend.

Rule of thumb that I like to use in the 7 to 10 day range is used the Ensamble’s Usually the operational is usually very volatile even the euro for that matter after seven days

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1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Rule of thumb that I like to use in the 7 to 10 day range is used the Ensamble’s Usually the operational is usually very volatile even the euro for that matter after seven days

Hot off the press, the 0Z EPS is a bit colder than the last two runs for most of the 11-15 with ground temperatures a few degrees BN. The EPS is much colder than the torchy GEFS in the 11-15. Model wars!

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

EPS still looks interesting for the 1/25-1/26 time period.

And tonight's "flurry" event is a perfect example of how quickly things can change.  I know it isn't really a big deal, but it only popped up in the past 1-2 days.  
 

Hard to really trust anything past a couple of days anyway. The models love to show something in the 7 to 10 day range only for them to disappear the next day. 

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6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS/GEFS are still a torch. 12Z CMC is much warmer than 0Z late in its run fwiw. Will the much colder than GFS suite 0Z Euro/EPS/GEPS start to give in to warmer at 12Z or will they hold their own? Any guesses?

Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Moneys on PAC winning out and a continuation of the same pattern. Active cutters and brief cooldowns with no arctic connection. EPS has oversold cold all year I see no reason to expect it to change 

 You win your bet. The 12Z EPS is significantly warmer in days 7-13 vs the 0Z. It now is a little AN averages out vs a little BN on the 0Z.

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