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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yep, Euro transfers off the Delmarva.  

 And in case anyone is wondering lol, the 12Z JMA (which also had a SE wintry threat at 12Z yesterday) joins the other models with a warmer solution and no widespread SE wintry threat.

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13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 And in case anyone is wondering lol, the 12Z JMA (which also had a SE wintry threat at 12Z yesterday) joins the other models with a warmer solution and no widespread SE wintry threat.

Well GW looks like we're back to watching teleconnections.  At least the AO and PNA look better today long-range and MJO still looks good.  :D 

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19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That cold snap we had around Christmas caused more harm to the overall pattern than good. All it did was exhaust the cold source for a few weeks or more. There is some cold air but nothing like back in December.

Exhaust the cold source? What the heck? Is there some sort of allowance or something for how much cold weather an area can receive during Winter? That cold weather snap in December has nothing to do with what happens the rest of the season. 

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Exhaust the cold source? What the heck? Is there some sort of allowance or something for how much cold weather an area can receive during Winter? That cold weather snap in December has nothing to do with what happens the rest of the season. 

Of course there isn't an "allowance" but if you think that didn't have any bearing on the pattern the past week weeks you haven't been paying attention. The bomb low track thorough the Midwest causing the severe cold also broke down the block that formed totally resetting the pattern. Cold builds up and releases. 

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8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Exhaust the cold source? What the heck? Is there some sort of allowance or something for how much cold weather an area can receive during Winter? That cold weather snap in December has nothing to do with what happens the rest of the season. 

What do you think happens when we have stratospheric warming events? It disrupts the polar vortex and all the cold built up in the arctic and allows it to move south. It may not have a bearing on what will have in February or March but it does for January. 

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12Z EPS is consistent with the model consensus trend away from a SE winter storm threat during 1/13-15. So, the January of 1933 scenario of warm practically all month surrounding an isolated two day cold that included a big RDU January 13th snow is now looking highly unlikely.

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57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z EPS is consistent with the model consensus trend away from a SE winter storm threat during 1/13-15. So, the January of 1933 scenario of warm practically all month surrounding an isolated two day cold that included a big RDU January 13th snow is now looking highly unlikely.

Does it still look like upslope for the mountains in the EPS. I havent been able to check the snow probs.

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It almost looked like a shift toward cutter to me on the 6z GFS. Obviously the hybrid CAD wedge results in an ice event for the western Piedmont/Foothills but this is not what we want to see. Soon enough we will talking about a severe risk (which honestly on the wedge boundaries could already occur in this scenario).

 

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1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I can’t Pivotal load.  Anyone care to give a short synopsis of next weekend and the long term?  I’m lookIng for a generational ice storm soon.  Was testing the generator this morning and she gave up the ghost.  

Euro shows thunderstorms. GFS has ice from 40 north. Long range is warm warm warm

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

@eyewall is their any chance this storm becomes a bigger deal in the NW piedmont and Southern VA as far as ICE?

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Sure if the parent high is stronger and locks in over southern Ontario/Quebec and there is a sufficient cold air feed.  This one looks transient for now though.

 

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I can’t Pivotal load.  Anyone care to give a short synopsis of next weekend and the long term?  I’m lookIng for a generational ice storm soon.  Was testing the generator this morning and she gave up the ghost.  

The euro Weeklies have been progressively getting us colder from late this month through February.  The pattern change is on the ensembles now. About 2 weeks out with intermittent cold fronts.  With the mjo and the disruption of the pv anything can go. There are signs of the NAO going negative also but as we all know that doesn't mean we will get a storm...

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18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The euro Weeklies have been progressively getting us colder from late this month through February.  The pattern change is on the ensembles now. About 2 weeks out with intermittent cold fronts.  With the mjo and the disruption of the pv anything can go. There are signs of the NAO going negative also but as we all know that doesn't mean we will get a storm...

 

The weeklies have been pretty awful this year. 

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

 

The weeklies have been pretty awful this year. 

Got to hold onto something.  I think February could surprise a lot of people.  I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.

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9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Got to hold onto something.  I think February could surprise a lot of people.  I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.

If the MJO is in phase 4,5 or 6 during February, then you can forget about it being cold. That is pretty much guaranteed in a La Nina.

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13 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The euro Weeklies have been progressively getting us colder from late this month through February.  The pattern change is on the ensembles now. About 2 weeks out with intermittent cold fronts.  With the mjo and the disruption of the pv anything can go. There are signs of the NAO going negative also but as we all know that doesn't mean we will get a storm...

 The end of the last few EPS runs have  suggested a redeveloping solid +PNA/cooling SE, but the EPS did that for midmonth and Jan 9-10 and has since backed off of anything sustained. We all have seen this and it is well documented in the forecast threads.
 

 The new EPS looks good for potential cold in the SE near 1/21, but we've seen this song and dance before as the Pacific jet has been badly underestimated, quite possibly due to near record Pacific MC SSTs. So, then the EPS backs off. The EPS and others did very well 12/16-27 but that was an exception rather than the rule. Hopefully, ~Jan 21st will be the time for the first sustained pattern change to BN since 12/16-27, but I'm not betting on it at this time. More than likely it will either be just a short cold period or it will back off imho.

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25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Got to hold onto something.  I think February could surprise a lot of people.  I know typically February's during Nina are torches but I think this year will not be an all out torch. We've seen things change pretty fast this year also.

 Actually, most Niña February's have not been all out torches (that chance is exaggerated) even though that is a realistic possibility. When I say torch, I mean MA or 5+ AN. ~25% were torches at Atlanta. While that's a relatively high % for getting that  warm, that still means 3/4 weren't actually torches. The much higher chance (2/3) is for either just A or N.

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23 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

If the MJO is in phase 4,5 or 6 during February, then you can forget about it being cold. That is pretty much guaranteed in a La Nina.

Better hope it goes into cod then. I still think we get chances into February.  At the very least the pattern will repeat itself in my opinion.

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Better hope it goes into cod then. I still think we get chances into February.  At the very least the pattern will repeat itself in my opinion.

If the pattern repeats we are screwed. Only hope will be flow snow for you all. 

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