DanLarsen34 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Wanted to start a threat regarding the severe weather threat on January 2nd. SPC has issued a 30% enhanced risk contour for Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and Far NE Texas. We could be starting the new year with yet another significant cold season severe weather event. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Although (obviously) I expect the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms to be east of DFW, I am starting to wonder about our risk on Monday. We are on the edge of the outlined D4 risk after all, and recent Euro (12z) and GFS (12z; waiting on the 18z) runs suggest the potential for a severe risk around noon; obviously this time frame can change! While morning severe is unusual, after the December 13th tornadoes I'm a little more alert to things like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 km NAM sounding just ahead of a supercell on the model near or just E of Huntsville/Madisonville area. Boatloads of low level helicity. Hints of more semi-discrete further W (towards DFW) ahead of the Pacific front as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 km NAM as sun sets in Fayette County, Arkansas. Or Miller County, just to the W, which is a 'wet' (alcohol allowed) county. Cross the river from Fayette County to buy beer. Bit N of best instability, but outrageous low level spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I’d center around Waskom for this chase opportunity - that TX/LA border seems ideal for violent supercells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Looks like two severe regimes later today: 1. Ozarks/Arklatex area. Warm sector could start firing off storms by early afternoon, but storm interactions and a tendency for convection to become elevated seem to be limiting factors. Not to mention that’s one of the worst areas to storm chase in the sub-forum. 2. Eastern North Texas into eastern Oklahoma. Convection allowing models are in fairly good agreement with semi-discrete storms initiating just east of I-35 by late afternoon. The parameter space is progged to be uncharacteristically favorable for early January. The main issue may be capping and storms not firing until right around sunset. 12z FWD sounding shows a substantial capping inversion around 850mb. The cap looks to allow CAPE to rise into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by 21-22z, but as mentioned, most convection may be suppressed until a bit later. We’ll see. Tomorrow looks interesting over LA/MS, but the threat seems to be split across sub-forums and isn’t gathering much attention. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 I’ve been watching as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Looks like the system slowed down a bit allowing for a bit more severe weather to the west in E. OK. NWS Tulsa upped their tornado warning chart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 hour ago, OKTWISTER said: Looks like the system slowed down a bit allowing for a bit more severe weather to the west in E. OK. NWS Tulsa upped their tornado warning chart. I've never seen this type of graphic before! Is this something experimental? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Interesting new Meso Discussion. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0005.html Also the convective outlook expanded the 10% hatched area further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Things are starting to get fairly active, though storm mode has been very messy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Nasty cell here, that couplet is easily the most intense of the day. Tornado warning on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 I think there was a tornado really close to this area last month. Certainly a chance there's a tornado happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 The new Tornado Watch was recently issued with 60/40 probs. That area of clearing over the triple point could become interesting. Not good for people in this area and to the east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Brandon Copic has been involved in a car wreck. I think he's okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Local met just posted an interesting stat regarding flooding potential. Going to be a long night for a lot us either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 PDS tornado warning just NE of Jonesboro Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Couplet is absolutely raging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, CryHavoc said: Couplet is absolutely raging. This cell has been going for quite a while, and has looked impressive at times - though this is the first time it's confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 interesting note: dew points may be 23 to 28 degrees F above normal in the Louisiana-Arkansas area, as well as 20+ above normal along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, CryHavoc said: PDS tornado warning just NE of Jonesboro Arkansas. That would be Jonesboro, Louisiana. Cell moving up towards the I-20 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chinook said: interesting note: dew points may be 23 to 28 degrees F above normal in the Louisiana-Arkansas area, as well as 20+ above normal along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. That is insane considering the arctic blast that we just experienced only a week ago. Dewpoint here (NW TN) has been holding at 66 for a few hours now. Temp hit 70 this afternoon, and a week ago we had wind chills approaching 30 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Eastern OK now has 2 active tornado warnings on the cells that blew up along US 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said: Eastern OK now has 2 active tornado warnings on the cells that blew up along US 69. These are ones to watch closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 New Tornado warned cell near Georgetown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 It's always amazing that such a tiny cell could be a tornado producer on a day like today, but normally it would be a passing rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Chinook said: It's always amazing that such a tiny cell could be a tornado producer on a day like today, but normally it would be a passing rain shower. Yeah, I always find it incredible on days when even tiny cells start to spin before they even have supercellular characteristics. And then other days you have massive motherships who won't put down a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I think there's very strong rotation between Farmerville, Marion, and Sterlington. It's at the point where the storm is far from any radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: It's always amazing that such a tiny cell could be a tornado producer on a day like today, but normally it would be a passing rain shower. I just had that conversation with a family member. Those clusters are headed my way in 2 to 3 hours. Gotta be up at 4 am and its hard to sleep in this kind of setup. HRRR has a nice line coming in about 3 am as well in my area. Shear will be on the uptick and I would imagine there will be a few QLCS spinups along that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 this is from Andy Hill, assisting Ryan Hall on his ongoing youtube stream. Unfortunately, I can't figure out what radar this was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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