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January 2023


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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's been close to 60 here all afternoon and bright and sunny, it will be interesting to see the splits when they come in.

 

it was a beautiful day. i made a couple bucks returning abandoned stroller rentals at the local mall.....got a little workout during my walk.

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I was looking at webcams of ski areas throughout the northeast and some are still really struggling. Even further north nobody is approaching 100% open and we are about 6-8 weeks from when the northern mountains start losing trails. For the southern mountains that usually starts within 4-6 weeks. Was at Belleayre though yesterday and it was great overall. 

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12 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was looking at webcams of ski areas throughout the northeast and some are still really struggling. Even further north nobody is approaching 100% open and we are about 6-8 weeks from when the northern mountains start losing trails. For the southern mountains that usually starts within 4-6 weeks. Was at Belleayre though yesterday and it was great overall. 

I was at Mountain Creek yesterday and conditions were bad, good amount of people though. Lots of slush.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records

 

Highs:

EWR: 66 (2013. 2006)
NYC: 64 (2006)
LGA: 63 (2006)

Lows:

EWR: 3 (1935)
NYC: 2 (1873)
LGA: 4 (1948)

 

Historical: 

1987 - A winter storm brought more heavy snow to the North Atlantic Coast Region, with 13.6 inches reported at Hiram ME. January proved to be the snowiest of record for much of Massachusetts. Worcester MA reported an all-time monthly record of 46.8 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary)

 

 

I lived in Worcester MA during that month.  It was absolutely epic as an 8th grader and huge snow lover.  Never experienced anything like that again and never will in all probability.  Feet of snowpack to play in after school and on the weekends.  Winter storm warnings almost every 3-4 days.  Sigh... Memories.... 

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25 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was looking at webcams of ski areas throughout the northeast and some are still really struggling. Even further north nobody is approaching 100% open and we are about 6-8 weeks from when the northern mountains start losing trails. For the southern mountains that usually starts within 4-6 weeks. Was at Belleayre though yesterday and it was great overall. 

Titus is in great shape and wide open. I don't think anyone else is though. https://nyskiblog.com/forum/threads/titus-ny-1-29-23-harveys-road.1512/#post-51803

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Titus is in great shape and wide open. I don't think anyone else is though. https://nyskiblog.com/forum/threads/titus-ny-1-29-23-harveys-road.1512/#post-51803

No struggles in Adorindacks right now, but they had a rough first half of January.

 

Catskills have been messy all season

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19 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Titus is in great shape and wide open. I don't think anyone else is though. https://nyskiblog.com/forum/threads/titus-ny-1-29-23-harveys-road.1512/#post-51803

 

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

No struggles in Adorindacks right now, but they had a rough first half of January.

 

Catskills have been messy all season

Titus is 60% open, Whiteface 78%, and Gore is just 55% open. While yes they look great right now and have had some recent snow, this is still a struggle bus of season. Things are better in the Green Mountains in Vermont finally. Let’s hope this week pushes all of these areas closer to the elusive 100% open. 

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Just now, JustinRP37 said:

 

Titus is 60% open, Whiteface 78%, and Gore is just 55% open. While yes they look great right now and have had some recent snow, this is still a struggle bus of season. Things are better in the Green Mountains in Vermont finally. Let’s hope this week pushes all of these areas closer to the elusive 100% open. 

well, if you’re waiting for ORDA run mountains to get to 100%, you’re probably going to be waiting a long time haha

 

But I imagine after this week they will be set up very nicely for the presidents week holiday

The “good” line is north of Lake George.

Everything below that is going to struggle this year

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

One of the things many forgot this year is NYC likely did get measurable snow that day in December where EWR/LGA reported it, so this is somewhat of a bogus record 

I drove down that morning. I had snow up here and frankly, I’m more suspicious about LaGuardia reporting any measurable snow than central park reporting none.

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was looking at webcams of ski areas throughout the northeast and some are still really struggling. Even further north nobody is approaching 100% open and we are about 6-8 weeks from when the northern mountains start losing trails. For the southern mountains that usually starts within 4-6 weeks. Was at Belleayre though yesterday and it was great overall. 

Sad.  You really wonder what the future holds for the skiing industry.  

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With temperatures soaring into the middle 50s, today was New York City's 34th consecutive warmer than normal day. That extended the ongoing record. The prior record of 31 days was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. New York City also registered its 11th 40° or above low temperature of the month. That surpassed the old January mark of 10 days, which was set in 1932.

Colder air will begin to return to the region late tomorrow.

Winter 2022-2023 has now surpassed the record for latest first measurable snowfall in New York City. The old record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

The developing cooler pattern will last through the week. That pattern will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits in New York City and possibly below zero outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation will likely commence during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +2.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.472 today.

On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.299 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 2.067 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.4° (9.7° above normal). That will make January 2023 the warmest January on record, breaking the record of 43.2°, which was set in January 1932.

 

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2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

Funny, or not so funny, that the majority of this "cold" stretch coming up will be what used to be known as "normal" for this time of year. It'll probably feel cold Tuesday-Thursday because we've had March weather most of January but in reality, it's just normal January weather (old normal I should say).

I often think about how a standard issue “cold” LIA winter would be viewed today in the northeast (really Virginia to Maine). I don’t even mean the harshest winters of that era, just a more typical cold winter. It would seem crazy to us now. I think Bluewave posted temperature records going back a ways and even in the era after the LIA but before warming accelerated, the average temperatures of a “normal” winter were just so much colder than anything we have a frame of reference for today. 

Obviously we’re lucky to live in a better era as a society nowadays, but I absolutely wish I could time travel back to experience what real east coast winters were like. 

Read up on (anyone) what the 1810’s were supposed to be like in the wake of the monstrous “mystery’’ eruption of 1808/9 and then the even larger Tambora in 1815. Supposedly this decade is one of the coldest known. 

But hey, now we have frequent non - winters and people hate snow anyway, so win? :ee:

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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I drove down that morning. I had snow up here and frankly, I’m more suspicious about LaGuardia reporting any measurable snow than central park reporting none.

I was in Brooklyn and we had clearly had measurable snow. I would bet CPK did as well

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With temperatures soaring into the middle 50s, today was New York City's 34th consecutive warmer than normal day. That extended the ongoing record. The prior record of 31 days was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. New York City also registered its 11th 40° or above low temperature of the month. That surpassed the old January mark of 10 days, which was set in 1932.

Colder air will begin to return to the region late tomorrow.

Winter 2022-2023 has now surpassed the record for latest first measurable snowfall in New York City. The old record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

The developing cooler pattern will last through the week. That pattern will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast. Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits in New York City and possibly below zero outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation will likely commence during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +2.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.472 today.

On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.299 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 2.067 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.4° (9.7° above normal). That will make January 2023 the warmest January on record, breaking the record of 43.2°, which was set in January 1932.

 

Music to my ears, Don!  The record is within sight!

I also heard it was the January with the most number of days of 50 or above-- with 13!  That is absolutely amazing!

 

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