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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY.

Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow.

WX/PT

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3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow.

WX/PT

I'm only paying attention to the RGEM anymore, every other model is horrible and flip flops every few runs. 

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5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow.

WX/PT

I'm at the acceptance/"what can go wrong goes wrong" stage of this winter. My expectations are nil so if something does happen I'll be thrilled for the 45 minutes it happens for. Once we get into these New England snow favored patterns they usually stay that way it seems. 

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4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along. 

It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours. 

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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

It looks like the RGEM shows a small accumulation for the city, less than an inch. I hope but won't be surprised if there is no accumulation.

Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. 

 

Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC. 

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54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the overrunning would come in early enough we could overcome the marginal airmass for a while, but models are shifting to any of that happening north of us. So we wait until the main precip area hits, by which time the ESE wind warms up the boundary layer too much in the city. Makes sense is right and it's what happens in 90% of these. We get the lucky 10% every once in a while like 2/22/08, 12/14/03 etc but these screw jobs are the norm. Boston to Albany might get another few inches or more and continue leaping out ahead of us since it's looking like they'll be the area the overrunning hits. 

2/22/08 was amazing and you're right, it came in in the middle of the night!  I don't think it was a Lakes Cutter like this one is either and both the air and water were a lot colder than they are now.

 

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9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea the 10:1 map has 0.1 inch but I wouldn't use that for this storm. Kuchera is nothing on the 0Z run. 

 

Window for snow is 18z to 0Z and at 18Z it's 37 degrees in NYC. 

37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour.

 

The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... 

 

NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM.  

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The RGEM has LI in the 40s the whole storm, it might be a bit too warm but I think you get the sense how this is going..... 

 

NYC 37 is the lowest it gets on the RGEM.  

37 is rain/snow mix, we can get a small accumulation if it gets to 36 and falls down hard enough.

 

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It has the overrunning coming through our area so that's positive at least. But it's pretty much on its own. Just about every other model has it going well north from I-84 north. 

The GFS is still caving it’s almost as bad as the NAM. This is what it’s showing now and the cave still isn’t done: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2023012400&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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