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January 2023


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20 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. 

Screen Shot 2023-01-11 at 12.07.32 PM.png

That looks like a January 1993 map.

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31 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

to all my nyc metro people, may i present to you our next fantasy storm. 12Z GFS. I'm not giving up hope this early in the season, especially for myself here in westchester. Let's see how many times this one gets the ol' switcharoo before it lands. 

Screen Shot 2023-01-11 at 12.07.32 PM.png

The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set! 

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 222hr/282hr/312hr metro area is having a blockbuster winter this year. My future virtual ruler and future virtual snowblower are all set! 

Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased.

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25 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

Actually we haven't even had much fantasy eye candy this year, which contrasts with our other recent bad winters where we've frequently been teased.

I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this
the GFS was made to get my hopes up
the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams 

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3 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this
the GFS was made to get my hopes up
the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams 

The gfs is good at sniffing out storms 10 days out but its usually not close on the placement

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21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

I refuse to give up hope on this winter, but my very primitive knowledge of weather I've gained in the past month has taught me this
the GFS was made to get my hopes up
the ECMWF was made to shatter my dreams 

Back when the Euro was the undisputed King, people called it Dr. No because it would almost always shoot down whatever fantasies the GFS, NAM and Canadian would spit out, and all but the biggest weenies would take it to the bank. But on the rare occasions when it did show something big inside 5 or 6 days, you knew it was time to get excited. All of that died after January 2015 of course, and since then no model has come close to getting that level of respect (at least for forecasting east coast winter storms).

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On 1/10/2023 at 12:50 PM, bluewave said:

Whatever you want to call it…SE Ridge, WAR, Bermuda High. Notice the 50/50 low got replaced by a giant ridge. We have seen the day 6-10 models underestimate this feature frequently. A ridge in that position has been the dominant feature since the 15-16 super El Niño. You can see a ridge this strong off the East Coast is something new since 1950. 

New run

4EFA5246-DC8F-4435-8DA0-808EF20233A2.thumb.png.4a7a3c8f0f04d61da0ccc6131d91606e.png

Old run

1000AB35-D122-4D5F-959F-0B2A48617F0A.thumb.png.89f94334267634c7250f4c17198398d2.png

 

Long term rising 500 mb heights to our east setting new records


489FDB16-84FC-4CF9-A899-6E5975F5578A.jpeg.1de9c10e4d74ade5506c0bf13e70b69e.jpeg

0DBD1D7E-0AAF-42F7-8901-C08B54F5BA9B.jpeg.d7a5945032d98a480f8df7e05571e43c.jpeg


 

 

We need the Bermuda Triangle to make the Bermuda High disappear.....

 

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3 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

I'm really hoping so, my first year back on the east coast in years and I'm just begging for a snowstorm at this point

Forget snowstorm.. Begging for even an inch.  Even a dusting would be nice. 

It's really bizarre the complete lack of snowfall up here, not even flurries or snow showers, except for that event in Dec that bagged me 3-4 inches.  

 

Back in the day with snow droughts, I remember TV mets would say "cheer up snow lovers, mother nature has a way of balancing things out, be patient."  Not sure about that balancing reassurance nowadays

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It's going to take alot to convince me we are moving into a better pattern. I will start to buy in once we are within 5-7 days. As far as specific storm threats we will need to be within 3-4 days. I would rather be pleasantly surprised then highly disappointed. Keeping expectations in check for now. 

Okay

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Is winter still “coming back?” 

Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east
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Clouds will increase tonight as a storm moves toward Lake Erie. Temperatures could begin to rise toward morning. Afterward, that storm will head up the St. Lawrence River Valley. That storm will bring a period of rain to the region tomorrow evening into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely.

Following the storm, a seasonably cool air mass will overspread the region for the close of the weekend. However, milder weather will follow early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions.

The SOI was +7.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.711 today.

On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.912 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (6.9° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:


Bluewave has pointed this out time and again with the undermodeled WAR in the long range for years now. All the models show it being there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the WAR gets stronger as we get closer and it keeps the cold west of us may make it hard for the cold to progress east

I'd like to find out if other parts of the world experience an issue similar to the "WAR" or is it that we are geographically unluckly? I don't see a big western Pacific ridge mentioned with regards to snowfall in northern Japan for example-- so maybe this is just an issue for us? 

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