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January 2023


wdrag
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Morning thoughts…

Light precipitation will end this morning. Clouds will give way to sunshine during the late morning or afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

Dry and mild weather will continue through midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 41.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.3°

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Something is seriously shady with the amount of salters I saw dumping tons of salt on the way into work on the uws. I run snow removal for a college and would never dump salt

1. during rain

2. with a solid forecast of above freezing temps.

Since salt is damaging to vehicles and the environment something is up.

Possibly a good old boys overtime scheme in a low snow winter we’re guys need the money and budgets need to be spent. And or a need to lower stockpiles so that salt contracts can continue in the future. 
Either way, this is inexcusable. This event is even close to being justified….

But without it we won't have a good manhole explosion season.

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A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. 

The models have backed off the extent of the cold 1/21 on. Canada is going to be completely full of Pacific Martine air and it is going to take quite awhile to build arctic cold back up again without cross polar flow. It looks like NYC is going to make it to 1/20 without its 1st inch of snow. That has only happened a total of 15 times in the entire weather record keeping history of the city
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A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. 

hey hey… 1/4” of snow here, so it’s a winter wonderland.


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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

A disappointing overnight of rain instead of snow I78 with any snow on the northern most fringe interior NJ to maybe just n of I80. Nothing here in northern Sussex County NJ so far, except possibly a flurry. We stand at 7" for the season and while one 00z/9 op run of the EC suggests snow Saturday, all 00z/9 ensembles are basically less than 1" snow even I84, through the complex weekend storm. Still not a shutout on possibilities but unlikely in our area for much if any snow. Just pathetic. Can't even look beyond 1/15 for awhile til we get a broad cold 1030MB high spread across the far n part of NYS-New England. 

Measured 0.01 from last night’s precip.  Short range models all backed off on the event as we went through the day yesterday.  

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The next 8 days are averaging    39degs.(35/44)or +6.

Month to date is     47.3[+13.3].         Should be near    43.1[+9.6] by the 17th.     Finish the month like this and we could be #1.

Reached 42 here yesterday.

Today:    43-45, wind nw., decreasing clouds, 36 tomorrow AM.

EUROens. says some BN in here by the 22nd. or so-----but the GFSens. says no, trough gets stuck to the west of us.

1673222400-yIyblhQ0tUA.png

39*(87%RH) here at 6am, drizzle.        38* at 8am.     40* at 9am.      41* at Noon.      Reached 44* at 3:30pm.       42* at 6pm.       41* at 9pm.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are getting a December 2015 super El Niño 500 mb pattern in early January. Notice how the whole region is +10 to +15 so far. Very unusual to get a pattern like this with a La Niña.


6CB066C0-3CFC-4D7D-B835-8EBE4F519F83.gif.f3f2ab4de53c73ec3f4ffc006dbdc8fe.gif

549ABDA4-4B79-446E-929C-48A8F9FDCCE0.png.a74ad1935bf38c8009487c046435a75a.png

7D006218-EFBB-499E-BFC2-AAE97918E01F.thumb.jpeg.c0c2c324b227d6816e0decbe805e269f.jpeg

 

PAC jet ext and strong vortex did this month in 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Added CoCoRaHs reports of snowfall overnight: A band into Morris County and a second area measurable e CT eastward.

I'll keep checking models, especially for the unlikely event to emerge but for now... snow drought continues.  

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 8.02.36 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-01-09 at 8.03.54 AM.png

These just may be the saddest snowfall maps I have ever seen.  As they say, someday we'll look back at these and laugh.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:


The models have backed off the extent of the cold 1/21 on. Canada is going to be completely full of Pacific Martine air and it is going to take quite awhile to build arctic cold back up again without cross polar flow. It looks like NYC is going to make it to 1/20 without its 1st inch of snow. That has only happened a total of 15 times in the entire weather record keeping history of the city

IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. 

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3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. 

Hoping we can get some -NAO back to battle the ridge and maybe we’ll at least do better than whatever this hybrid-Niño crap is. 

It’s certainly demoralizing and the prospect of an actual shutout seems plausible, but the platitude of “there’s a lot of winter left” still seems applicable. Lots of weather left between here and April. 

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Statistically, a 50-degree December would be the equivalent of a 45.8-degree January (1991-2020 baseline) at Central Park. The December 2015 average would be the equivalent of a 46.6-degree January. The existing January record, which was set in 1932, is 43.2 degrees.

and then February was much cooler?

Have we ever had an entire winter with all 4 winter months at or above 40, Don? (December, January, February, March)?

I assume it would be 1997-1998 for Central Park and 1997-1998 and 2001-02 for LaGuardia and none for JFK or EWR?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to be one of the most impressive PAC Jet extensions that we have ever seen in early January.

 

 

It's really good for the drought out West!  Didn't we have a strong jet like this last winter too? Was that in December?

The talk this morning is we should expect these kinds of anomalous jets with climate change?

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and then February was much cooler?

Have we ever had an entire winter with all 4 winter months at or above 40, Don? (December, January, February, March)?

I assume it would be 1997-1998 for Central Park and 1997-1998 and 2001-02 for LaGuardia and none for JFK or EWR?

 

Only at LGA: 2001-02.

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IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. 

Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent as projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out


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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Yes. The end of month jet retraction is real. You can see what the tropical convective forcing wants to do come early February. If it goes to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent aa projected, it’s climo canonical La Niña…Aleutian ridge, RNA/SE ridge and lights out


.

Only question is, can February be as warm or even warmer than January?

avg temp 40 and above for both months?

It's interesting how two completely different patterns can have very similar results lol.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Only question is, can February be as warm or even warmer than January?

avg temp 40 and above for both months?

It's interesting how two completely different patterns can have very similar results lol.

 

More likely, blocking returns as it statistically does following a neg. AO in December and we are rainy and chilly with temps 45 to 50. 

We are not lucky enough to get 60 and sunny consistently.

 

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IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty. 

Also, it looks like the idea of a February SSW is off the table now, that would have possibly….maybe, thrown a monkey wrench into a canonical Niña February but there isn’t good support for a SSW anymore
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