lee59 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 66 my high, felt nice but totally out of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The warmth is coming back You are running up the weenies lately 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You are running up the weenies lately Nice profile pic lol. This guy all snow gotta be related to snowman19 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Some photos ahead of today's near record and record warmth. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 69 in Suffolk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Anyone know the record is for number of continuous nights above freezing in January? I'm curious. Driving by Thunder Ridge and it is BLEAK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: 69 in Suffolk today. Same. It wouldn’t have taken much to get us into the 70’s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Ok…winter can be over. But no more rain. Just. No. More. Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Worth keeping in mind (the whole thread, but this point about the MJO in particular): 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Temperatures soared to near record and record warmth in many parts of the region. Daily records included: Atlantic City: 70° (old record: 68°, 1950) Islip: 65° (old record: 64°, 1998) New Haven: 61° (old record: 55°, 2015) New York City-Central Park: 66° (tied record set in 1950) White Plains: 65° (old record: 61°, 1993) Following today's exceptional warmth, it will turn cooler tomorrow. Nevertheless. daily temperatures will continue to run warmer than normal through the first 10 days of January. Overall, readings will average about 15° above normal during the first week of the month. The second week of January will see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is unlikely. Some guidance suggests that there could be a sharper but brief cold shot just before mid-month. 2022 became the 14th year during which New York City received no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around December 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter before fading to neutral conditions. The SOI was +17.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.765 today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Anyone know the record is for number of continuous nights above freezing in January? I'm curious. Driving by Thunder Ridge and it is BLEAK! 18 consecutive days with lows above freezing (January 13-30, 1932). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 18 consecutive days with lows above freezing (January 13-30, 1932). Well at least for the time being this record should be solidly safe... For now. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 consecutive days with lows above freezing (January 13-30, 1932).Because the climate always changes….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Because the climate always changes…. . Cue Snowboy19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Isn't much of the northern hemisphere in near record warmth now? I'm reading about records being shattered all over Europe, and not just by a degree or two, but many degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Worth keeping in mind (the whole thread, but this point about the MJO in particular): I personally do not recall any cases of extreme or even well above normal warmth at all with an MJO wave of moderate or greater strength in those phases...they may be using a lot of data sets where the MJO was weakly in phase 8 or 1...if its in phase 8-1 as most GEFS/EPS currently show I believe at worst you probably are near normal and that may be a stretch 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: Because the climate always changes…. . I used to think this way. Until I accepted the science. We literally inject a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. 2+2=4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 hours ago, gpsnavigator said: Isn't much of the northern hemisphere in near record warmth now? I'm reading about records being shattered all over Europe, and not just by a degree or two, but many degrees. Had heard that as well. Did some googling and got multiple hits to the effect of "at least eight European countries recorded their warmest January day ever: Liechtenstein, the Czech Republic, Poland, the Netherlands, Belarus, Lithuania, Denmark and Latvia." Seems like in the past when it was unseasonably warm here, it would frequently be the case that Europe would be going through some freakish cold and snow. This is all anecdotal of course, but I don't recall record-breaking warm both here (i.e. most of the US) and Europe simultaneously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 5 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Anyone know the record is for number of continuous nights above freezing in January? I'm curious. Driving by Thunder Ridge and it is BLEAK! When I had my ski shop in Patterson one of the kids that worked for me also made snow there at night. They used to spend ~$10k for electricity and air per night making snow. That was about 20 years ago, imagine what it cost now to run those huge diesel compressors with diesel costing nearly triple what it did back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 DT (WxRisk) video. January 13-14 has the best potential, the others not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Yes I know it’s January 5th, but I’m starting to get gravely concerned with snow prospects this winter. I’m getting those 71/72, 01/02 vibes. Too many weather anomalies going against us; consistent trough out west, firehouse pac jet, not to mention the dreaded SE Atlantic ridge. Heck we couldn’t even score with a -5 AO! At this point I would sign up for one big snowstorm in this dogsh*t pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most other areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 61° Some showers or light rain is possible tonight into tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.9° Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 41.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.8° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Cue Snowboy19Hi . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 hours ago, gpsnavigator said: Isn't much of the northern hemisphere in near record warmth now? I'm reading about records being shattered all over Europe, and not just by a degree or two, but many degrees. Yeah, near record low snow cover over also. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 The warmth is coming back Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex . I skimmed the study but don't have time to dig much deeper, it's very interesting. Do you know though if/how they account for the strength of the MJO wave, and what impact that has? Would be my only obvious question. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Yes I know it’s January 5th, but I’m starting to get gravely concerned with snow prospects this winter. I’m getting those 71/72, 01/02 vibes. Too many weather anomalies going against us; consistent trough out west, firehouse pac jet, not to mention the dreaded SE Atlantic ridge. Heck we couldn’t even score with a -5 AO! At this point I would sign up for one big snowstorm in this dogsh*t pattern. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I personally do not recall any cases of extreme or even well above normal warmth at all with an MJO wave of moderate or greater strength in those phases...they may be using a lot of data sets where the MJO was weakly in phase 8 or 1...if its in phase 8-1 as most GEFS/EPS currently show I believe at worst you probably are near normal and that may be a stretch Newark made it to the all-time winter warmest of 80° during an MJO 8-1 passage in February 2018. So that is the warmest on record for those phases of the MJO. There are other factors like the the SPV strength study that was just posted a few minutes ago. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-02-15 60 44 2018-02-16 59 36 2018-02-17 39 25 2018-02-18 46 33 2018-02-19 49 32 2018-02-20 69 46 2018-02-21 80 56 2018-02-22 59 37 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Hi . I was referencing the weirdo boy version of you who only weenies posts about climate change and has never said anything. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Turns out MJO 8 isn’t cold when there is a strong stratospheric polar vortex . Welcome back! What. Winter a winter for you! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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