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December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations


NJwx85
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Snow well inland will quickly flip to rain this afternoon as heavy rain and warm air surge over the region. We have a highlighted potential for flash flooding, damaging winds and thunderstorms, especially late this evening. Tomorrow is going to be a wild day with mild temps to start the day and then an arctic blast during the afternoon which will produce a rapid drop in temps and the potential for some back end snow and more damaging winds. Discuss here and post your obs.

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No precip in Manhattan UES and Central Park thus far, but feels like it is imminent.

Regardless of the eventual totals, I'm impressed that the system was identified and called out at least a week ago, when all seemed serene.

The meteorologists on this panel deserve to take a bow, imho.

 

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Most models have nyc east meeting High wind warning criteria, gust 55-65 highest further east. A lot of the models also now focusing on a period of strong winds overnight and another mid morning early afternoon tomorrow. Not sure if there’s any inversions or what not just going off the output 

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6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam has winds picking up around 7pm with gust 70-80 overnight, so overdone lol

 

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Most models now have a big burst of wind from midnight-6am I guess they’re seeing some convection mix down stronger winds

The 18z NAM has less of an inversion than previous runs. 30-40 mph with a few higher gusts is still notable and seems likely.

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