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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread


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2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


Maybe it’s me but our “warm ups” this season haven’t been all that warm IMO. We have had a few days in the 60’s, one or two in the 70’s but it seems like most of our temps have been 45-55 and cloudy. Might be me though.


.

Same here in January. Multiple days in the upper 40s to low 50s with misty/foggy weather even during the day. 

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Well 3 minor chances this week. Better than nothing! 
 

1st event Monday will be border mountains only. Probably not a lot of accumulation.

C6154BC4-188E-4302-894B-7BF2F1F0AB63.thumb.jpeg.80dbc19bf52fde7eff1a698a5adc388f.jpeg

2nd event could be a more prolonged NW event and could get more areas involved. Still in the 1-3" range.
 

5044E05A-98C4-49CD-BF65-413AEC7D9625.thumb.jpeg.04794ff88b3ea11a4c9273cf48325195.jpeg

3rd event is a sneaky clipper on the heels of event 2. Several GEFS members have a nice little thumping of snow on already frozen ground. Something the first two don't have.

All in all nothing major but atleast something to snack on!

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Disclaimer: the following has noting to do with the next couple of weeks. 

With regards to the strat stuff, EasternLI had a good post in the NY subforum this AM:

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Since I last posted on the stratosphere. Cross guidance trends have been unfavorable for getting it done. There's still warming ahead, but it looks increasingly clear to me like it will fall short of what we would need. Here's the latest gefs trends illustrating this. 

646322645_epsmean10hPa60N(2).png.c193d70d2ff511cb254d1feb7ec05f58.png

So what could that most likely mean. There's still some warming modeled. Here's the cross section of the 00z gfs as a guide. Note the strong winds high up in the stratosphere. Associated with the stronger than normal SPV currently. With weakening winds arriving at the time of the warming. Notice how the warming weakens the winds higher up, but this is pushing down the stronger wind into the troposphere. But the warming isn't going to be enough to finish the job. So what are we left with. I'd say most likely that means no help from this. As it actually acts to strengthen the vortex in the troposphere instead (+AO) by pushing the stronger winds down from above. With the SPV regaining strength again following this as hinted on latest guidance. Could happen later I suppose, but I really rather not by then as the hour is getting extremely late. Hopefully this is at least a little helpful for those more curious about the nuance of it. Ideally, a stronger event would push the reversal of winds down through the atmosphere into the troposphere. Which is how the arctic blocking can emerge. That looks very unlikely today.

20230122_062700.png.e044a0edbe05023b1821f49d4d499e30.png

You can actually see what EasternLI is talking about on the 3D maps:

giphy.gif?cid=790b761121ad15acc539d050d8

 

The top of the vortex definitely gets smaller and slows some, but the bottom seems to keep chugging along. 

I don't necessarily think that this means a huge change for better or worse though. 

1. Even if we had a major top down SSWE, it would take until the end of Feb at this point to see real impacts in the Eastern US IMO. So we were still looking at a couple weeks of an unfavorable pattern in mid Feb. 

2. A weakened SPV shouldn't impact the meta-pattern we've been in since fall, the 2.5 weeks of unfavorable pattern, then a week to a week and a half of better chances.

I'd almost go so far as to say that when the pattern shifts again at the end of Feb. we will have better chances than with the one we're in or heading for now over thee next week and a half or so. Remember October? The cold snap we got for a week that month was stout. The one at the end of November, ehh, not so much. December? We all remember that one. Hopefully everyone has their water back by now. The one this month? Certainly the GFS has hinted that a major cold snap is possible, but. I suspect it will be more muted like that of November. 

As the wavelengths shorten and as the MJO makes it slow pass back towards the more favorable phases toward the end of February, I'm really interested to see what we end up with by Feb 25th or so. 

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We are going to have to watch the d7-12 timeframe for an overrunning event.  I think that tends to favor west TN, but that boundary is in question(meaning how far SE does it go?).  The 12z GFS yesterday had one extreme, but the 6z GFS still tries to push that air into the forum area, especially western areas.  The 6z GEFS is not warm, and neither is the 0z Canadian ensemble during the d10-15 range(and that is a change for the GEFS).  The EPS is warmer.  I think the cold heads into the Mountain West and pushes eastward until the warm phases of the MJO take hold.  Interesting LR trends for sure.  The full run, 6z GEFS snow mean is 6-7" of snow for NE TN, and that has normally been a decent sign of impending winter weather here during the next couple of weeks.  Time will tell.

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! 

zSPzsbF.png

 

I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. 

That is a very realistic and possible progression. 

Lol at least yall will make up for such a dry Fall this way. At least one positive. 

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Just to add to that....it actually is heading eastward on the 12z CMC, and that isn't the only model to have had that look during that timeframe.   There is real model disagreement on whether it gets east of the Mississippi.  However, what is lurking around Feb 1st is potentially the coldest air of the season for some locations in the Lower 48.

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I am naturally a positive person, but it seems like our area is being teased a lot only for things to back off closer in time. East Tennessee higher elevations may get in on these next 2 systems a little. But west and middle just can’t seem to hit the right combo so far, maybe if I step away from model watching for a while things will change. Plenty of time but I would like to at least get 1 decent system in the next 10-15 days. If it comes down to waiting on March it gets even more iffy usually and hard to pull off a good week or 10 day pattern of winter.

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6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Disclaimer: the following has noting to do with the next couple of weeks. 

With regards to the strat stuff, EasternLI had a good post in the NY subforum this AM:

You can actually see what EasternLI is talking about on the 3D maps:

giphy.gif?cid=790b761121ad15acc539d050d8

 

The top of the vortex definitely gets smaller and slows some, but the bottom seems to keep chugging along. 

I don't necessarily think that this means a huge change for better or worse though. 

1. Even if we had a major top down SSWE, it would take until the end of Feb at this point to see real impacts in the Eastern US IMO. So we were still looking at a couple weeks of an unfavorable pattern in mid Feb. 

2. A weakened SPV shouldn't impact the meta-pattern we've been in since fall, the 2.5 weeks of unfavorable pattern, then a week to a week and a half of better chances.

I'd almost go so far as to say that when the pattern shifts again at the end of Feb. we will have better chances than with the one we're in or heading for now over thee next week and a half or so. Remember October? The cold snap we got for a week that month was stout. The one at the end of November, ehh, not so much. December? We all remember that one. Hopefully everyone has their water back by now. The one this month? Certainly the GFS has hinted that a major cold snap is possible, but. I suspect it will be more muted like that of November. 

As the wavelengths shorten and as the MJO makes it slow pass back towards the more favorable phases toward the end of February, I'm really interested to see what we end up with by Feb 25th or so. 

Tomer Burg on twitter says the GFS/GEFS has had data issues into the Polar Vortex

Tomer-Burg-on-Twitter-No-GFS-GEFS-data-has-been-coming-into-PolarWx-since-last-night-due-to-apparent-NOAA-data-dissemination-issues-These-issues-still-appear-to-be-ongoing-Apologies-for-any-inconvenience-Twitter.png

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

After the GFS's lascivious indulgence yesterday at 12z, the sinner repents and gives us our favorite February pattern! 

zSPzsbF.png

 

I know it is only one run, but if the trough dumps out west and fights the SE ridge, we may end up on the boundary. 

That is a very realistic and possible progression. 

Ah, forget about snow days, schools will be getting some flood days instead. Reminds me of February a few years ago, forget which one, but it was rain, rain, rain. 

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4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

To an extent anyways,no SSW right yet

Climate-System-Monitoring-TCC (1).png

I think it is definitely decelerating and weakening and looks to weaken quite a bit more:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76111121880ee60a06258f

I guess though instead of splitting it as waves break, those waves that bring the warming are being reflected back down across the north pole into Canada. I really wish there was some 3D way to visualize not just the SPV but how a wave would attack the SPV and then be shunted back down to drive the pattern over N America. 

 

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