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January 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread


Carvers Gap
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GEFS Ext has above normal precip over the TN Valley during the colder weeks, and it looks like a textbook setup w/ the most precip over middle TN...but pretty much the entire forum area is AN for precip though.

Euro Weeklies look to have normal precip during its coldest "mean" timeframes.....

FWIW, the Weeklies control is also very similar but slightly less extreme east of the MS. Its mean ensemble is about week later w/ a much more watered down look understandably since it is a blend.

Screen_Shot_2023-01-05_at_9.51.56_PM.png

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5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Seems like earlier you said that the extended was really dry but I know how quickly that can change....

I may have!  Ha!  It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow.  About this time of night, it all runs together for me!

These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps.  If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps.  Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean.  That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER.

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7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. 
 

Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land.  Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit. 

Sorry to bury your comment w/ 1,000 posts of mine.  Just bumping it so folks can see it.

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10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I may have!  Ha!  It is getting late, so I probably should save the rest of my comments/rudimentary analysis for tomorrow.  About this time of night, it all runs together for me!

These runs tonight look decent in terms of precip timing and colder temps.  If I remember back in December, it was pretty obvious from the word "go" that cold snap was going to be problematic in re: to precip as we were just exiting drought conditions west of the Apps.  Now, that cold control run above is definitely drier than the ensemble mean.  That much cold would squash even the hardiest SER.

Yeah too much cold is a bad thing as you well know. I think the rest of the season looks interesting to at least be interested in the pattern for the mid to long range unless something happens to mess that up. But as we both know these patterns have a mind of there own and can be fickle at there best.

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah too much cold is a bad thing as you well know. I think the rest of the season looks interesting to at least be interested in the pattern for the mid to long range unless something happens to mess that up. But as we both know these patterns have a mind of there own and can be fickle at there best.

Yeah, amen to that.....and with the strat getting jostled....things can change.  The good thing is that seasonal patterns and the MJO do provide good underpinnings.  

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Overnight Ensembles:

EPS MSLP members:

giphy.gif?cid=790b761122c21165008b930510

 

H5 anomalies:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76112374f8b480b3d30d1f

 

GEFS

MSLP members

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611d96500e2b5fc8e8c98

 

 

H5 anomalies:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611434acac994f3f1f03e

 

GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? 

 

I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS

0z EPS:

9IqYGO5.png

 

6z GEFS centered on the same time:

GGyfCvW.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Actually I move the post from banter to here just so more people will be likely to see it. Please, no one put much stock in this and get let down if it doesn't happen

 

vT0fvw6.png

Thing is, this has been there on several model runs for a while(maybe not that much).  If anyone gets their hopes of for 52!!!!  Well, they haven't been doing this long enough.   LOL.  DGEX worthy right there.   Looks rates driven vs cold driven in terms of accumulations.

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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know that I've ever seen anything over the 30" color contour outside of the Sierra or some random NAM run for LeConte

 

If this holds together as a bowling bowl at the very least I bet we get one heck of a NAMing for someone. 

I can remember a couple.  That huge NC/SC storm that never materialized was one.  It was producing 4-5' right up to the event.  They got nada!    Snowmegadon had some big totals.  @tnweathernutsent me a photo while I was driving in the mountains.  I had to pull over in order to get enough service to get the photo...glad I was pulled over!

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The 6z GFS has the same storm as the CMC, but is eastward.  That does not surprise me as it is the more progressive model.  I would guess the Euro might be having some issues w/ holding energy back...but who knows, that might have been exactly why its run was so big yesterday or so meh overnight.  I need to look at the ensembles more.

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58 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Overnight Ensembles:

EPS MSLP members:

giphy.gif?cid=790b761122c21165008b930510

 

H5 anomalies:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76112374f8b480b3d30d1f

 

GEFS

MSLP members

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611d96500e2b5fc8e8c98

 

 

H5 anomalies:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611434acac994f3f1f03e

 

GEFS quite a bit more progressive and maybe that is the way of things in this current fast progressive flow? 

 

I would also say that there is more spatial spread among GEFS individual lows, even though that ensemble has fewer members than the EPS

0z EPS:

9IqYGO5.png

 

6z GEFS centered on the same time:

GGyfCvW.png

 

 

The one thing modeling has been pretty consistent w/ is a banana high over the top of the SLP.  That essentially traps that storm along the coast.  I am tempted to say that a storm now looks likely, but only tempted.  We all know what can happen w/ storms at this range.  Also, we are entering the timeframe where storms are lost(d5-7).  If this thing is still there Sunday, it might be worth seeing if the potential is there to reel it in.  Another characteristic which I have seen across modeling is the storm going negative tilt, turning due north, and then turning northwest for a brief time.  

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And it wouldn't be a weather forum if we didn't talk about the unofficial/official SSW occurring in modeling.  The GFS splits the strat at 10, 30, and 50mb.  I don't know about the wind reversal piece.  I am wondering if we actually need to redefine an SSW.  When we see a fairly concentric lobe of x heights split into two lobes...that is a split in my book.   And to paraphrase a great scientist....Amy Butler noted(did NOT say there was a split coming) that it is rare to have a split during this phase of the QBO and maybe Nina(?).  However, those rare splits resulted in some pretty significant cold at mid-latitudes.  That strat warming is likely playing extreme havoc w/ LR products right now IMHO.   Lots of flip flopping in modeling.  So, to me, that means we are looking at 50/50 as to whether this comes to NA.  Then is is 60/40 as to whether it drops into the West and nation's mid-section.   I am wary when I see cold at LR and see strat split occurring...I have been burned more than once with that set-up.

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