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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
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2 minutes ago, Jonger said:

The cold is meh...

Basically a complete bust. 

I have picked up more snow from random LES showers more than a few times this winter so far.

It's already below 0 on Monroe County. The wind chills are already 20 below. Pretty much happened as I expected it would yesterday. We'll probably end up around 2" from the "storm" here and then you once again will probably get more lake effect tomorrow than you got from the actual storm.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's already below 0 on Monroe County. The wind chills are already 20 below. Pretty much happened as I expected it would yesterday. We'll probably end up around 2" from the "storm" here and then you once again will probably get more lake effect tomorrow than you got from the actual storm.

Once I got a look at the system when it was within 12 hours away, I could tell it was moisture starved. It's a rare swing and miss by the GFS within 24 hours. Usually by that time the storm is depicted pretty close to how it plays out, this time that didn't follow suit.

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Temp just keeps dropping. Snow swirling and drifting. Obviously model porn amounts in the days leading up were pathetically off, but the actual weather is pretty neat. If I can sit next to my Christmas tree on Dec 23 and watch mini snownadoes swirling out the window in a winter wonderland, it's not a bad thing.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Wild conditions here. Visibility in town is around 3-4 blocks. Roads are total shit. Can’t imagine what it’s like in the sticks. River has flash freezed. Work today is going to be something else. Not sure I have enough layers on. :lol:

Good luck. I always am concerned about you guys and gals working in these conditions. Today is probably right up there with the worst ones.

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Well I was giddy as a school girl at 11pm when the rain changed to snow here in Alpena. I was thinking it was going to rain all night. Woke up to about 2-4in of concrete snow. It's still lightly snowing and the wind is really ramping up. Hoping to atleast get a few more inches thru Sunday and some drifting. Atleast I'll have a white Christmas even if it's not a historic blizzard. 

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6 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Well I was giddy as a school girl at 11pm when the rain changed to snow here in Alpena. I was thinking it was going to rain all night. Woke up to about 2-4in of concrete snow. It's still lightly snowing and the wind is really ramping up. Hoping to atleast get a few more inches thru Sunday and some drifting. Atleast I'll have a white Christmas even if it's not a historic blizzard. 

 Nice you got some concrete. That will freeze up instead of being carried away in the wind. We went straight from rain to powder here.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Interesting. Winters of the 2000s/10s were far snowier than the 1990s in SE MI.

Multiple Ninos in the 80's really gave NMI some good winters. The bouncing between Ninos and Ninas also was stout. NMI, especially NEMI really cashed-in during that decade. The early 90's backed-off for NMI, but the mid-90's had epic snows and cold. I will never see winters like that again. 

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I woke up to some modest winds but just light/mod snow, temp was crashing by 9:00 am from -1 to -5C in 90 mins. Lowest pressure recorded was 982 mb. I expected winds to ramp up out fast around 10am and that never happened, in fact they might have even subsided!! :lmao: I did some shopping in this so-called "blizzard" that has been rock solid consistent in guidance and my unreliable local forecast, outdoor conditions were okay! The winds will have to ramp up majorly from this even in my neck of the woods or this pre-LES phase will be a major/epic bust. Now my station is showing pressure is actually going up now, that wasn't suppose to happen til early tomorrow morning!!! :lmao: I'll give this til 10pm tonight to impress otherwise I'd be a fool for not being stronger in the face of temptation but I couldn't handle it :lol: 

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Once I got a look at the system when it was within 12 hours away, I could tell it was moisture starved. It's a rare swing and miss by the GFS within 24 hours. Usually by that time the storm is depicted pretty close to how it plays out, this time that didn't follow suit.

Glad DTX didn't go BW and ruin their bliz-less warning headline streak for a white dust event. That would've been doubly tragic

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12 hours ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Man I was only 3 yrs old. I do remember snowier winters in the late 80s to 90s as a kid here tho. Btw it's now finally puking flakes and it's time for bed. Hoping to wake up to atleast a few inches ( that's what she said)

Not even close the the second half of the 80’s and most the 90’s was very lame here in far lower Michigan. There is only a few storms in a 10-15 year span that was even noticeable.

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8 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Not even close the the second half of the 80’s and most the 90’s was very lame here in far lower Michigan. There is only a few storms in a 10-15 year span that was even noticeable.

S Lakes/OHV was ground-zero during the 60's and 70's and up til 82/83's Super Nino. Then things shifted north and NMI did well in 80's and 90's. I moved in 97/98's mega-Nino and things again shifted S. I remember my friend up in Traverse complaining that SWMI scored the huge totals with Jan '99 while up there, it was just a decent hit. 

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Winds blowing so hard here think I saw a couple flakes with Hawkeye's zip code on them.  54 in the last hour strongest gust I've recorded yet.  Still "crankin'" a 30-35 below wind chill close to noon.  Been below 30 wind chill since 2am.  Thats 2013/2014 stuff right there for these parts.    

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On 12/22/2022 at 10:57 AM, Chicago Storm said:


The HRRR isn’t off it’s rocker, if you’re not looking at the Kuchera output.


.

Yeah I looked at what ratios it was using for Kuchera later and was like nope. Normally with this cold it would work but the wind wasn't helping with fracturing the dendrites and I know there was issues with DGZ being misaligned with where forcing was and then had the drying profile with extreme caa behind cf. These winds are no joke today. Consistent 40+ gusts and definitely approaching the 50 mark. 

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Mainly the underwhelming part so far is the lack of strong gusts which I assumed would be fierce by 10am, few of them and not big but I did get a coupe shortly before noon and then suddenly a calm with sustained. Temp drop is ahead of schedule. My snowfall has been okay but with the recent calm also diminished. On radar I see something trying to get going north of Sarnia but only some lake enhancement just along the shore.

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4 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Wild conditions here. Visibility in town is around 3-4 blocks. Roads are total shit. Can’t imagine what it’s like in the sticks. River has flash freezed. Work today is going to be something else. Not sure I have enough layers on. :lol:

I was wearing these thin gloves with a couple holes in them when I went out to snowblow last night, and I felt like my hands were on the verge of frostbite in less than 10 minutes.  Really couldn't take it anymore.  Thankfully I finally found my better pair.  

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Just heard a loud wind roar pass through. Hi-lite of the storm

Wind and fog, most extreme weather detroit ever sees. I guess thats not a bad thing if you're not a weather nut.

Gaylord west towards bellaire has been under heavy returns and 16 degrees for hours now. They gotta be stacking the snow.

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