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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 

This. 
 

Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts.

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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 

 

November? Gonna be hard to top that around here atleast.. Initially atleast the winds may prevent better banding. 

2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

This. 
 

Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts.

 

Yeah such strong winds may disrupt the bands. I think our best window is Sat afternoon/Night. 

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4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Wonder if DTX will upgrade. Winds over 50 still should be more then enough

I'm guessing no, if their reasoning is similar to GRR:

We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of
counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This
storm as two significant aspects, the unusably strong winds
during a snow storm and the heavy snowfall, more enhanced lake
effect snowfall as the system moves away from the area. We issued
the Blizzard warning over our western counties for the combination
of heavy lake effect snow and strong winds. We went only with a
Winter Storm warning over the eastern counties since the snowfall
was less during the time of high winds, meaning it seems
questionable that we`d get the visibilities to stay below 1/4
mile for 3 consecutive hours.
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I’ve never seen so much srefs talk!  I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years.  My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM.  Is my understanding correct?

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I’ve never seen so much srefs talk!  I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years.  My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM.  Is my understanding correct?

You're correct.

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24 minutes ago, TravisWx said:

APX just upgraded headlines. Majority of the lower peninsula is under a blizzard warning.

More like half.

GRR must be in touch with @Harry

 

We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of
counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This
storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds
during a snow storm
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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ve never seen so much srefs talk!  I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years.  My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM.  Is my understanding correct?

It’s the only legitimate model when times are rough 

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ve never seen so much srefs talk!  I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years.  My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM.  Is my understanding correct?

SREFS been a thing around here as long as I can remember.

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5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

More like half.

GRR must be in touch with @Harry

 

We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of
counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This
storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds
during a snow storm

That entire AFD made me think WDM has been up too long.  The grammar was horrendous.  Normally he does a very good job.

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2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

IWX on the other hand is considering upgrading more counties to a Blizzard Warning later if the higher winds verify 

I wouldn't be surprised. The lake effect is going to be reaching far inland. Plus, ground blizzard conditions should occur if winds do indeed verify. 

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Crazy to see the latest trends on the models, I'd throw up Blizzard Warnings for all of IWX at this point and probably all the way over to Jackson and possibly even Ann Arbor. I think you almost have to be over dramatic here considering the importance of this time of year during travel and the fact that this storm is a combo of a high end tropical storm wind with snow.

For NW Ohio at the moment it seems like a safe call to go with 5-8" for the counties west of I-75 and 3-5" for everywhere to the east. This thing absolutely gets ripping late Thursday and by early Friday morning the entire region is shut down probably until Sunday morning. 

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Nice P&C , 2'+ Synoptic/LES' definitely attainable probably no way to fully measure it.  Still snowing though Sunday albeit much lighter. 

Quote

Detailed Forecast

Tonight
A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 21 by 3am. Light southeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening.
Thursday
Snow showers, mainly after 4pm. High near 29. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers. Low around 19. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 8am. High near 26. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 10 inches.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 12. Windy, with a west wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 6 inches.
Saturday
Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before noon. High near 15. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Saturday Night
Snow showers. Low around 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Christmas Day
Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12.

 

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23 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

More like half.

GRR must be in touch with @Harry

 

We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of
counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This
storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds
during a snow storm

Yeah I meant to type northern lower peninsula.

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30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Can someone explain to us non-winter weather weenies what the deal is with this storm? Not enough moisture to produce large accumulations? 

While the lack of a solid Gulf connection is an issue, the bigger issue has been the multi-day trend towards a weaker/delayed amping/further east track to the storm system as it moves through much of the sub-forum.

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