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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters.  This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about?

I’d give anything for 3” & 50 mph winds!!! I’m easy! Enjoy!!

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57 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

More then likely outcome but just looking at that and the placement of other features ( 500mb/700mb etc I have a difficult time buying that track that far north? Via the placement of the other features I would expect to see the slp down towards the se part of the state! 

Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong? Thanks! 

It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario.

CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022122018-GFS-US-500-avort-33-66-100.gif.361e9f50cfd72a4c6a994c86924689bf.gif

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24 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

???? Is that post you quoted in another thread? I went to look for it in this thread and natta?.:unsure:

 

**Edit***

I found it.. And yeah you are right I am not a fan of the wind especially not with the kind of cold involved. I enjoy being out in it and the wind makes it hard to do 

 

 

I'm the opposite. Wanna be hunkered down inside getting just blasted. Snow caked to window screens making it even more "in my face". Haven't seen that since at least 11-11-95 in NMI. I get the cold part since we've become so accustomed to endless autumn this could real feel even worse. Tail end of PV Bliz was frigid too, but it had been cold for almost a month by then. 

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3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm the opposite. Wanna be hunkered down inside getting just blasted. Snow caked to window screens making it even more "in my face". Haven't seen that since at least 11-11-95 in NMI. I get the cold part since we've become so accustomed to endless autumn this could real feel even worse. Tail end of PV Bliz was frigid too, but it had been cold for almost a month by then. 

The cold at the end of the polar vortex snowstorm was simply surreal.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

The cold at the end of the polar vortex snowstorm was simply surreal.

Man I'll always remember that jan 5 polar vortex storm. It's the only storm I can remember getting 8-12 from a progressive/positively tilted storm. The roads were ice/snow-packed for weeks after due to the frigid cold from the vortex.

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16 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

18z Euro actually a tick east after Hour 60 as the low crosses northwestern Ohio; leads to a small shaving of northern IL QPF.

Dtw will skip watches and issue warnings after 5 inches is already on the ground. They know people don't bother listening to them anyways. Budget cuts, nobody will prob be there to issue the warnings anyways.

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MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

Not much thinking has changed in terms of the storm and it
associated marine impacts. There is an increased risk for freezing
spray and with waves now forecast to approach 20 ft...we will need
to assess the erosion risk. Confidence continues to grow on the
storm force wind risk with still a small potential for hurricane
force wind gusts.

 

Would be pretty amazing to see the effects of the waves and freezing spray on the piers along the western Michigan shoreline.

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11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. 

To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums.

339528790_Blizof78-MansfieldOH.jpg.5b5aaea2285aabb9a560d0dbb2ee0799.jpg

1976605068_NWSBlizof78-HRCCSnowMap.PNG.13a3585b8a07f014217d89ab8eff97b8.PNG

1779854497_av-blizof78.jpg.f8ca8dadd567f8aa642c13ede17c085c.jpg

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13 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. 

To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums.

339528790_Blizof78-MansfieldOH.jpg.5b5aaea2285aabb9a560d0dbb2ee0799.jpg

1976605068_NWSBlizof78-HRCCSnowMap.PNG.13a3585b8a07f014217d89ab8eff97b8.PNG

1779854497_av-blizof78.jpg.f8ca8dadd567f8aa642c13ede17c085c.jpg

it would only be fitting to happen to Alek's rig in 5" of snow and a spot on call.

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That's all quite interesting about 1-26-78 but the actual storm track was closer to Sarnia-Port Huron and up Lake Huron, I was actually in a weather office drawing up a map at 0800h and still have the map. There was a pressure of 955 mb at Sarnia and at one point maybe around 09-10h London ON had hurricane force southerly winds that were wrap-around arctic air. This won't quite get that wrapped up anywhere. I realize the technology has improved but the 24h prog position of that storm was over western Lake Ontario (it came up from around central AL). We were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto and got one from the wrap-around instead of northeast winds, so the public were not that aware of a forecast bust. I think it probably came as more of a shock further west, the intensity was quite unforeseen in southwestern ON. Those winds knocked down several large hydro-electric towers in that region. You don't often see arctic air blowing from the south in that part of the world. 

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20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. 

To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums.

339528790_Blizof78-MansfieldOH.jpg.5b5aaea2285aabb9a560d0dbb2ee0799.jpg

1976605068_NWSBlizof78-HRCCSnowMap.PNG.13a3585b8a07f014217d89ab8eff97b8.PNG

1779854497_av-blizof78.jpg.f8ca8dadd567f8aa642c13ede17c085c.jpg

I like that track over Lake Erie I’m in my upper 20s and been wanting something memorable like this. That’s insane 5 to 6 did that. I appreciate those insights!

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario.

CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022122018-GFS-US-500-avort-33-66-100.gif.361e9f50cfd72a4c6a994c86924689bf.gif

 

Thanks! Hoping that part is wrong as I think it is also keeping snowfall amounts down a bit as well from there to here vs further north. 

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26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. 

To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums.

339528790_Blizof78-MansfieldOH.jpg.5b5aaea2285aabb9a560d0dbb2ee0799.jpg

1976605068_NWSBlizof78-HRCCSnowMap.PNG.13a3585b8a07f014217d89ab8eff97b8.PNG

1779854497_av-blizof78.jpg.f8ca8dadd567f8aa642c13ede17c085c.jpg

Was there already a decent snowpack in place ahead of 1978?

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