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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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The mental gymnastics here are an excellent reminder of why winter is such a miserable and silly season to me. 

NYC (I know, who cares..but we have some good ppl there) is staring down all time futility and most outside of the highlands of CT are wallowing in single digit snowfall. I mean, can barely buy a trace in a January that has had every single day above normal. 

MA and points north only this week started seeing meaningful snow.

How would any weenie—and we are all weenies—not feel horrendously burned and/or desperate after what has been an objectively putrid first half of winter that likely locks in another BN snow season, say nothing of the temperature departure?

I get that everyone is looking for something to cheer for. We’re all on the same team there. But it gets exhausting to have posts that provide a glimmer of hope with the caveat “of course, no guarantees”, “cutters can happen in any pattern”, etc.

Who TF doesn’t know that? Especially this winter?

What’s worse by an order of magnitude however is pattern discussion that glosses over the fact that things have constantly been delayed and/or failed to produce even the bare minimum of wintry conditions and the new hopeful period requires another shot of positivity that essentially says this time it’ll be different. “Eventually persistence will fail”.

Who TF doesn’t know that, either? The question is when.

It’s all emotional here. There isn’t a single person here going at this without emotional defense or coping mechanisms. Just embrace it. 

We give latitude to lie to ourselves in winter that we never would in any other season.

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The funny thing is it has gone terribly wrong for them there many times, while we had HECS after HECS in SNE. So they’ve been skunked plenty too over the last decade. 

That is true . My guess is their worst Snow years are their driest winters In general. Suppression.
 

 If you throw a ton of precip into NNe elevation it’s gonna add up and if nothing else be difficult in ratting regarding synoptic snows , especially during peak climo months . However They may have a relatively early end to their winter activities if the temp anomalies don’t go at least neutral by March 

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5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

idk why but looking forward to hiking and doing more outdoors things.. maybe because the summers arent as bad up here?

Even spring is nice if it’s not cold. There’s no big mud around here like places further north IMO. A nice 65° day in March and it’s sundresses and shorts with long walks in the park. 

Edit: went back over my photos from last year. March 9th—snow. March 18th—outdoor hoops and football in shorts.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Even spring is nice if it’s not cold. There’s no big mud around here like places further north IMO. A nice 65° day in March and it’s sundresses and shorts with long walks in the park. 

i love winter but summers arent bad up here.  even if we have a few inches tomorrow probley going to cause more problems

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The mental gymnastics here are an excellent reminder of why winter is such a miserable and silly season to me. 

NYC (I know, who cares..but we have some good ppl there) is staring down all time futility and most outside of the highlands of CT are wallowing in single digit snowfall. I mean, can barely buy a trace in a January that has had every single day above normal. 

MA and points north only this week started seeing meaningful snow.

How would any weenie—and we are all weenies—not feel horrendously burned and/or desperate after what has been an objectively putrid first half of winter that likely locks in another BN snow season, say nothing of the temperature departure?

I get that everyone is looking for something to cheer for. We’re all on the same team there. But it gets exhausting to have posts that provide a glimmer of hope with the caveat “of course, no guarantees”, “cutters can happen in any pattern”, etc.

Who TF doesn’t know that? Especially this winter?

What’s worse by an order of magnitude however is pattern discussion that glosses over the fact that things have constantly been delayed and/or failed to produce even the bare minimum of wintry conditions and the new hopeful period requires another shot of positivity that essentially says this time it’ll be different. “Eventually persistence will fail”.

Who TF doesn’t know that, either? The question is when.

It’s all emotional here. There isn’t a single person here going at this without emotional defense or coping mechanisms. Just embrace it. 

We give latitude to lie to ourselves in winter that we never would in any other season.

Add this to the melt thread. If it's full start another...

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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats everyone on everything 

 

 I pass a graveyard and a funeral home on my way to work. Both have been unusually busy. Seriously, if you were close to the end this month could speed you along.

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55 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

i love winter but summers arent bad up here.  even if we have a few inches tomorrow probley going to cause more problems

 

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Snow problems are a good thing.  You love it. 

I believe he needs it too.   lol

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8 hours ago, kdxken said:

 I pass a graveyard and a funeral home on my way to work. Both have been unusually busy. Seriously, if you were close to the end this month could speed you along.

I know a woman that’s a mental health therapist . She said she has had so many more people coming to her this winter than ever. She actually asked if I had data on how many cloud days we’ve had .Add in all the Rainers to Mainers 

 

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10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The mental gymnastics here are an excellent reminder of why winter is such a miserable and silly season to me. 

NYC (I know, who cares..but we have some good ppl there) is staring down all time futility and most outside of the highlands of CT are wallowing in single digit snowfall. I mean, can barely buy a trace in a January that has had every single day above normal. 

MA and points north only this week started seeing meaningful snow.

How would any weenie—and we are all weenies—not feel horrendously burned and/or desperate after what has been an objectively putrid first half of winter that likely locks in another BN snow season, say nothing of the temperature departure?

I get that everyone is looking for something to cheer for. We’re all on the same team there. But it gets exhausting to have posts that provide a glimmer of hope with the caveat “of course, no guarantees”, “cutters can happen in any pattern”, etc.

Who TF doesn’t know that? Especially this winter?

What’s worse by an order of magnitude however is pattern discussion that glosses over the fact that things have constantly been delayed and/or failed to produce even the bare minimum of wintry conditions and the new hopeful period requires another shot of positivity that essentially says this time it’ll be different. “Eventually persistence will fail”.

Who TF doesn’t know that, either? The question is when.

It’s all emotional here. There isn’t a single person here going at this without emotional defense or coping mechanisms. Just embrace it. 

We give latitude to lie to ourselves in winter that we never would in any other season.

It is what it is and they’ll be more winters or stretches within winter like this in our lifetime so we might as well take it on the chin and keep on. 
 

It’s perfectly within weenie reason to be frustrated, especially if your livelihood and hobbies have been affected, and I take no issue with pessimistic outlooks…persistence is a mofo…what is left though is what is in front of us and me personally, I’d rather spend the time that I do (tracking and posting) and enjoy figuring out when we’ll catch a break instead of perpetually whining about the season (not saying you are). I can find a hundred better ways to spend my free time if I was, but to each their own.
 

We’ll come out of this, we always do. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know a woman that’s a mental health therapist . She said she has had so many more people coming to her this winter than ever. She actually asked if I had data on how many cloud days we’ve had .Add in all the Rainers to Mainers 

 

2/3 clear days...no crisp clear clean Arctic air all Seattle puke

network_CT_ASOS__zstation_BDL__month_1__ptype_sky__year_2023___r_t__dpi_100.png

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12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

You live in an elevated location in interior NNE. Something would have to go terribly wrong for you to get skunked 

A lot HAS gone wrong in the first half of this winter... :) Sure, it may be statistically unlikely that we have a whole "winter of skunk", but it's not like we had a great first half of the season. At least now it's more like it should be - and we'll still get our rain (Thursday, it seems?), but that's part of climo even in NNE. 

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think he means as we go forward…obviously.
 

At least it looks snowy, better then it not looking snowy. But we all know it’s just modeled and not real, until it happens for real. 

Just one, we need just one biggie, the mid Atlantic seems to do that pretty well....2016 if I recall

First week of February holds some hope, seems to be our period down here in SW CT region of the past few years.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think he means as we go forward…obviously.
 

At least it looks snowy, better then it not looking snowy. But we all know it’s just modeled and not real, until it happens for real. 

It's snowing right now in the midwest.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Moving forward

Keep up:snowman:

It's always snowy somewhere.  Still doesn't point out where.  

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I feel pretty optimistic about getting winter weather in New England the next 2-3 weeks.  No big warm-up seems to be in sight, the pattern looks active, even in these coming few days after 3 straight storms in 6 days.  We might get a little bit of snow Sunday and/or Tuesday, and I think a Feb 1 storm has been on the models for a few days now.  Also, CPC says BN temps and AN precip next 14 days.  Maybe I look at the window and that makes me optimistic, but for those of you suffering, I think good stuff is coming.  Like Will and Scott said yesterday, the start of any significant warmup keeps getting pushed back.

No Change?  No. Change.

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's snowing right now in the midwest.

It's always snowy somewhere.  Still doesn't point out where.  

6z GFS put in a snowy run for the whole of the northeast, which is what he was referring to. From us through SNE / CNE etc all showing something.

Again just an OP run at range, but better than showing nothing right? Hopefully a few systems with potential for all, but I feel pretty good that SNE will start to do well through early Feb. Down by me is TBD (as always, of course).

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6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I feel pretty optimistic about getting winter weather in New England the next 2-3 weeks.  No big warm-up seems to be in sight, the pattern looks active, even in these coming few days after 3 straight storms in 6 days.  We might get a little bit of snow Sunday and/or Tuesday, and I think a Feb 1 storm has been on the models for a few days now.  Also, CPC says BN temps and AN precip next 14 days.  Maybe I look at the window and that makes me optimistic, but for those of you suffering, I think good stuff is coming.  Like Will and Scott said yesterday, the start of any significant warmup keeps getting pushed back.

No Change?  No. Change.

Great post Mark.

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6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

6z GFS put in a snowy run for the whole of the northeast, which is what he was referring to. From us through SNE / CNE etc all showing something.

Again just an OP run at range, but better than showing nothing right? Hopefully a few systems with potential for all, but I feel pretty good that SNE will start to do well through early Feb. Down by me is TBD (as always, of course).

Well this is a January thread and I'm not seeing much snow potential outside of C/NNE today and NNE on Monday.

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