ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: My daughter was born on Dec 1, 2019. It snowed over 20" in MHT when we were at the hospital. Managed some radar checks from time to time. Man, and that was the one good storm all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man, and that was the one good storm all winter. My last bonafide HECS and only one since March 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. No, I'm not in denial.. you are simply obsessed with attributing everything to climate change. How is that ENSO is now irrelevant ideology working out this year? Anyway, there is a thread for that. This is simply not true. There is fingerprints of climate change everywhere - that is not me. Reality is obsessed with reality, and there those that cannot accept it. Because to do so, means their methods are not right - largely so... That's what's going on here behind these turn of phrases. So yeah...typical tact, pot shot and make it a personal abasement, then ...redirect to another thread. Crass - and it won't work You are wrong. And I am right. sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is simply not true. There is fingerprints of climate change everywhere - that is not me. Reality is obsessed with reality, and there those that cannot accept it. Because to do so, means their methods are not right - largely so... That's what's going on here behind these turn of phrases. So yeah...typical tact, pot shot and make it a personal abasement, then ...redirect to another thread. Crass - and it won't work You are wrong. And I am right. sorry Climate change is very real....but sometimes it rains because the low tracked through Albany, not because the Hadley Cell is responsible for devouring your social life. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Attribution studies are inherently imprecise. We know CC is obviously making things warmer….however, I don’t see much utility at all in discussing CC as it pertains to forecasting using NWP guidance. The laws of atmospheric thermodynamics don’t change. Model guidance is not going to be too cold or too warm because of CC. They are simply taking actual data (which is from a CC world) and then simulating the atmosphere with that data using the laws of thermodynamics and physics. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Attribution studies are inherently imprecise. We know CC is obviously making things warmer….however, I don’t see much utility at all in discussing CC as it pertains to forecasting using NWP guidance. The laws of atmospheric thermodynamics don’t change. Model guidance is not going to be too cold or too warm because of CC. They are simply taking actual data (which is from a CC world) and then simulating the atmosphere with that data using the laws of thermodynamics and physics. Right. Data assimilation incorporates current obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Attribution studies are inherently imprecise. We know CC is obviously making things warmer….however, I don’t see much utility at all in discussing CC as it pertains to forecasting using NWP guidance. The laws of atmospheric thermodynamics don’t change. Model guidance is not going to be too cold or too warm because of CC. They are simply taking actual data (which is from a CC world) and then simulating the atmosphere with that data using the laws of thermodynamics and physics. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climate change is very real....but sometimes it rains because the low tracked through Albany, not because the Hadley Cell is responsible for devouring your social life. Sorry. Hot head, ... good luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Hot head, ... good luck The psycho-babble as a vehicle for condescension gets old. Believe me, I am every bit as well versed in it as you are, if not more so, but there is no need to bring it into a weather forum. Just disagree without pedantically telling someone they don't understand why you are right because they can't resolve their inner conflict. Its absolutely fuckin* nauseating. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Attribution studies are inherently imprecise. We know CC is obviously making things warmer….however, I don’t see much utility at all in discussing CC as it pertains to forecasting using NWP guidance. The laws of atmospheric thermodynamics don’t change. Model guidance is not going to be too cold or too warm because of CC. They are simply taking actual data (which is from a CC world) and then simulating the atmosphere with that data using the laws of thermodynamics and physics. So who are you directing this toward - or is this just for the general audience. Who the f thinks CC is driving the forecast models. The advents are happening in a warmer environment. That's my contribution - just for the record, there is no connection to performance of machinery/guidance, at least not implied in making any statement I have made. So hopefully your statement is/was directed somewhere else - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The psycho-babble as a vehicle for condescension gets old. Believe me, I am every bit as well versed in it as you are, if not more so, but there is no need to bring it into a weather forum. Just disagree without pedantically telling someone they don't understand why you are right because they can't resolve their inner conflict. Its absolutely fuckin* nauseating. You're angry - ...I think an autistic child would gather that at this point. hahaha. My work here is complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're angry - ...I think an autistic child would gather that at this point. hahaha. My work here is complete Must be due to CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So who are you directing this toward - or is this just for the general audience. Who the f thinks CC is driving the forecast models. The advents are happening in a warmer environment. That's my contribution - just for the record, there is no connection to performance of machinery/guidance, at least not implied in making any statement I have made. So hopefully your statement is/was directed somewhere else - No it wasn’t directed at you but I’ve seen some posts from others that hinted at it WRT ensemble forecasts and such not verifying as cold. And yeah, I don’t think it’s controversial to say “if this event happened in a world where it was 1C colder, then it would have been more wintry”….duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it wasn’t directed at you but I’ve seen some posts from others that hinted at it WRT ensemble forecasts and such not verifying as cold. And yeah, I don’t think it’s controversial to say “if this event happened in a world where it was 1C colder, then it would have been more wintry”….duh Well thanks ... I impertinently ( apparently) intimated as much in the other thread - really was intending that as a point of commiseration but it ...uh, didn't seem to set too well with some LOL. Oops. I guess in retrospect it might have seemed like rubbing CC in to a powder-keg group. Yeah I can see that. Little insensitive on my part I guess. But, I don't care - honestly I don't. I'm a realist, probably to a fault when trying to get along in group theory.... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Mainly rain Wed night-Thursday...no shock. First Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mainly-rain-likely-wednesday-evening.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Can we get back to the pattern, and stop worrying about 1 degree C. It’s ridiculous no matter what you believe. Who gives a flying Fook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Can we talk about Wednesday/Thursday? Is this something like today? Front snows to rain(again)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Mainly rain Wed night-Thursday...no shock. First Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mainly-rain-likely-wednesday-evening.html back on that line, Moth*r _ucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it wasn’t directed at you but I’ve seen some posts from others that hinted at it WRT ensemble forecasts and such not verifying as cold. And yeah, I don’t think it’s controversial to say “if this event happened in a world where it was 1C colder, then it would have been more wintry”….duh Serious question and then I'll drop the issue. Say the planet was 1C degree colder 30 years ago...just for the sake of argument, haven't confirmed that......how does that translate exactly? Does that literally mean that every second, everywhere on the planet will be 1c warmer than they would have been 30 years ago, regardless of everything else? Maybe a dumb question, but not even being sarcastic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, 512high said: back on that line, Moth*r _ucker I wouldn't bother investing...gonna be a shit show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can we get back to the pattern, and stop worrying about 1 degree C. It’s ridiculous no matter what you believe. Who gives a flying Fook. I don’t really think you want to get back to the pattern . Hasn’t it been frustrating enough get up north Wednesday nite Thur looks like a carbon copy of warning snows MHT Nh north there really isn’t much to talk about besides just hoping the trough still in Baja Cali for the end of the month gets help from the PV and that we sorta thread the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, 512high said: back on that line, Moth*r _ucker Dejavu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can we get back to the pattern, and stop worrying about 1 degree C. It’s ridiculous no matter what you believe. Who gives a flying Fook. We worry about 1C on this forum all the time. 34F vs 32F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I guess in retrospect it might have seemed like rubbing CC in to a powder-keg group. Yeah I can see that. Little insensitive on my part I guess. But, I don't care - honestly I don't. I'm a realist, probably to a fault when trying to get along in group theory.... wow Tippy, love your posts and contributions dude… but why do these discussions always end up making it seem like everyone else on here is a little sensitive child and couldn’t possibly understand the point you are trying to make? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We worry about 1C on this forum all the time. 34F vs 32F. In individual storms and at a micro scale. But whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Tippy, love your posts and contributions dude… but why do these discussions always end up making it seem like everyone else on here is a little sensitive child and couldn’t possibly understand the point you are trying to make? Maybe the vision is that he's Dennis Quaid from Day After Tomorrow, and we are collectively this guy: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Serious question and then I'll drop the issue. Say the planet was 1C degree colder 30 years ago...just for the sake of argument, haven't confirmed that......how does that translate exactly? Does that literally mean that every second, everywhere on the planet will be 1c warmer than they would have been 30 years ago, regardless of everything else? Maybe a dumb question, but not even being sarcastic.... No it does not mean that.....just the average temp of the globe was 1C cooler. The arctic is where the most warming has happened, so it might be like 4C cooler there....while in many tropical areas it hasn't warmed at all. In our case in the state of MA, if we take the average DJFM temps from the middle 20th century and do a least squares regression, we've warmed at about 0.18C per decade which equates to about 1.3C of warming where we are. So it happens that our area is pretty close to that 1C of warming as it turns out but that won't be true everywhere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No it does not mean that.....just the average temp of the globe was 1C cooler. The arctic is where the most warming has happened, so it might be like 4C cooler there....while in many tropical areas it hasn't warmed at all. In our case in the state of MA, if we take the average DJFM temps from the middle 20th century and do a least squares regression, we've warmed at about 0.18C per decade which equates to about 1.3C of warming where we are. So it happens that our area is pretty close to that 1C of warming as it turns out but that won't be true everywhere. Don't forget about global SST increases, the biggest of which, have occurred off the coast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think CC is messing with long range guidance. Forky said the cold vortex is smaller than before and that makes sense. I take issue with his thinking a lot of times on this topic, but what he said there jives with what I think re long range modelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Tippy, love your posts and contributions dude… but why do these discussions always end up making it seem like everyone else on here is a little sensitive child and couldn’t possibly understand the point you are trying to make? Made a post… There was immediately negative backlash - by negatively they are not very respectful particularly when I didn’t point anybody out and I was just making assertion about something that was completely unrelated to anything of a personal nature. do the math. I don’t think I’m interpreting anything wrongly if I suspect that people are sensitive given that series of events. cause-and-effect vs cause and affect I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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