ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: So…next week’s systems look like dung for SNE, outside maybe the deep interior? Both systems look like ka-ka for SNE....1/25 has a better chance to do well, but we'll need some luck on that one too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both systems look like ka-ka for SNE....1/25 has a better chance to do well, but we'll need some luck on that one too. Hopefully we can get a few opportunities with a better airmass after 1/25. Look like it might want to get hostile again later in the 11-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both systems look like ka-ka for SNE....1/25 has a better chance to do well, but we'll need some luck on that one too. Kicking the can down here. Only so much more kicking we can do, legs getting tired. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Kicking the can down here. Only so much more kicking we can do, legs getting tired. Move to North Conway................ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z EPS ticked a couple east on the track from the 0z run, So the monday system is starting to look better for some of us coastal plain dwellers down into CNE at the moment, If all things broke right, 24"+ in the next 10 days is not out of the question in most all areas that stay mainly snow. Yeah, I mean it might not happen but at least we have a shot at a real pack that might stay around a while. We'll see but I'm cautiously optimistic. I feel bad for the SNE folks, but we are often looking in from the outside on their fun, so I'm sure they understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 If next week doesn't work out, you can lock in a crap snow season at least in SNE anyway. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Yeah, I mean it might not happen but at least we have a shot at a real pack that might stay around a while. We'll see but I'm cautiously optimistic. I feel bad for the SNE folks, but we are often looking in from the outside on their fun, so I'm sure they understand. We've all been there, And we have no say on where it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If next week doesn't work out, you can lock in a crap snow season at least in SNE anyway. Ray is still promising me 1956 ending. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If next week doesn't work out, you can lock in a crap snow season at least in SNE anyway. What would you consider a crap snow season where you're located? I would like to know for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Ray is still promising me 1956 ending. Second system doesn't look that bad on Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Kicking the can down here. Only so much more kicking we can do, legs getting tired. There isn't much of the can left to kick...found this outside of Brooklyn99's place... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: We've all been there, And we have no say on where it snows. Ullr take the wheel! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both systems look like ka-ka for SNE....1/25 has a better chance to do well, but we'll need some luck on that one too. Man this winter sucks....Any signs of life and it reverts right back to garbage for us in SNE. If it snows, great, but at this point it really has been same old story from the start. I find it amazing that we can somehow find a way to snow every other October. But here in the prime of climo season we can't even buy an inch?!!? We have to get lucky just for some snow....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1/23 is coming in pretty flat on some of these more recent runs (12z NAM....yes i know it's the NAM), 06z Euro and even 06z GFS came in a bit flatter though still more amped than the other two. That setup has such a bad high placement though that I think even a decent track would only benefit interior SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1/23 is coming in pretty flat on some of these more recent runs (12z NAM....yes i know it's the NAM), 06z Euro and even 06z GFS came in a bit flatter though still more amped than the other two. That setup has such a bad high placement though that I think even a decent track would only benefit interior SNE. Srly flow ahead is never good. Maybe it can intensify quickly and pull those winds more nrly should it slide south of the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, wkd said: What would you consider a crap snow season where you're located? I would like to know for future reference. Well it's probably subjective. Maybe below 30-35"? Lets say my long term (Not 30 yr which is probably inflated due to short term cycles) is around 45" or so. I don't even have 6" on the season yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Maybe the NAM will have a clue for Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: All I am saying is that people should try to keep an open mind, despite how frustrating this season has been...and for many, continues to be. I am NOT saying that anyone who doesn't feel this winter will turn around is silly, or a joke....not at all. Its possible this winter just ends up as a rat for many locales. I just hedge against that....at least for much of New England, anyway. I prefer to just maintain an objective vigil … But I suppose as an approach to this engagement either method is probably going to end up in the same mentality - semantics. Having said that… gosh, not a good series of runs last night regarding any of these possibilities we’ve been tracking over the next 10 days – essentially in one run the consensus depiction wiped out multiple cycles of trend towards better solutions for winter enthusiast. Such is life in the dreaded needle threader circumstance… which naturally means that there’s some probability they’ll come back obviously It may snow in those systems. But obviously all can see it’s way out towards the capital District of eastern New York up into northern New England… That’s just the winter we’re having thus far, even if it hasn’t performed particularly well N-W, either. It seems the model runs last night just clicked back into the trend of the season… Mm part of keeping an open mind is being open to the possibility that nothing will happen – just sayn’. You know if I have to be blunt even the pattern change itself more so looks like it’s got short legs on it… So others have intimated this over the last couple of days. I’m not sure I disagree. The long awaited new paradigm may limp into the first week of February after which I don’t know. Hm if we really do slip into a negative PNA sans blocking there’s nothing about the last 10 years of climate that suggest we won’t soar into the 70s for another historic run of it next month. We’ll see if an extension corrects in, going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 I hate the type of system where you have to root for it to be weaker so it tracks further east when you have a marginal air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I hate the type of system where you have to root for it to be weaker so it tracks further east when you have a marginal air mass. Biggest problem is zero high/confluence. The airmass isn't great but it would easily be enough if we weren't getting blasted with southerly winds on the front end. Usually we'd have light E or NE winds out ahead of a system if there was any type of high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hm if we really do slip into a negative PNA sans blocking there’s nothing about the last 10 years of climate that suggest we won’t soar into the 70s for another historic run of it next month. We’ll see if an extension corrects in, going forward If that happens then this will be the warmest & least snowy winter (D-F) on record. We would see record early growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Can’t remember the last time I was this far into January without at least an advisory event for around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If next week doesn't work out, you can lock in a crap snow season at least in SNE anyway. Both those threats look like junk until you get into the deep interior. We are in trouble. Maybe we get a rogue blizzard in Feb to save the day, but I’m not counting on it. Expect the worst, be pleasantly surprised if something breaks right at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Can’t remember the last time I was this far into January without at least an advisory event for around here.. Prob 2006-2007....you prob didn't get an advisory event until St. Patty's day that winter (unless you cracked 3" of sleet in the Vday storm). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Prob 2006-2007....you prob didn't get an advisory event until St. Patty's day that winter (unless you cracked 3" of sleet in the Vday storm). I recall two 3" sleet storms that year. And I'll tell you, 3" of sleet is as much of a winter driving/shoveling problem as 12" of snow...maybe more so! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Technically BOS has already had an advisory event though....they cleared 3" in the 1/15-16 event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 So.. someone was saying that the Nam tends to be a model that leans warmer than most.... This however is colder than most of not all models ( and yes.. I know it's still out 4/5 days ). But interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 GFS coming in colder... faster SS vort and lower heights downstream 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So.. someone was saying that the Nam tends to be a model that leans warmer than most.... This however is colder than most of not all models ( and yes.. I know it's still out 4/5 days ). But interesting. I'd really only apply the "NAM has a warm bias" when we're more like 60 hours out until very close in....at 84 hours, it's so far out that it can be wrong in all sorts of directions which is frequently is. Some other guidance was trying to come in flatter though on that, so it's not on a total island. It's still a really bad setup though....even an ideal track would probably struggle to snow inside of 495 and southeast of I-84 in CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 A bit flatter it looks like on the 12z GFS for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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