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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is definitely more of a +PNA with a neutral EPO versus the GEFS which is more solid -EPO and neutral PNA. 
 

Both patterns are way better than what we currently have but offer different threat profiles. 

Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods.

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods.

You won't finish with 3"...the question is whether you limp your way to something like 15" or rally to a more respectable number. I think we need to get on the scoreboard with a decent event prior to the end of the month if we're going to rally to a more respectable number. Hell, I average over 60" and I'm sitting around 3" as well. It's been pretty amazing to avoid even smaller events or front enders. Though we may pick up an inch or so tomorrow morning before it's washed away.

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23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Shuffle the deck and hope we get a better hand this time....if for some reason we end up with nothing to show for it, It just wasn't our winter. It happens and hopefully next year ends up better. Still sitting under 3" here....I still can't imagine how I don't add onto that number, even by some dumb luck over the next few weeks. This is extreme SNE and I would assume I average around 45" per year around this neck of the woods.

We’re in the 50-55” range I think but the data from dxr and oxc is non existent so it’s difficult to verify.

I bet we get one good snowfall and some sloppy others to get us to a respectable BN winter, if there is such a thing. Unless March ‘56 walks through the door…

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd take EPS

I would too...it looks more favorable in the Jan 21-25 period than the GEFS, though GEFS look like they are about to go nuclear on the cold near the end. But EPS looks like it might want to build the EPO ridge much higher if it went out further....you could see it building at the very end.

Regardless, either pattern is going to give chances better than the current pattern. Hopefully we can get some good timing for once.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

A fun exercise would be to post a bunch of months of H5 composites with the dates on each month blacked out and have people guess if the month was a big snow producer or not.

 

My guess is a lot of people would get them wrong. Everyone is obsessed with looking for the "perfect pattern"....trying to find this unattainable fantasy pattern where cutters are not possible and every threat hits New England with accumulating snow.

Example below:

 

Guess which year each of these February maps were? And were any of them prolific?

image.png.8cbeabf2f2f577e2cdcb6395297a5d36.png

 

image.png.5f2337dfc7cf6055f63abc6d7acc7907.png

 

image.png.4360b2f723ef502999d72ee276f2a4e6.png

 

image.png.14dd539e167e9dd2360d111824d9a696.png

 

Some nice EPO dumps 1 2 4 but no guarantees 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pattern change?? Hmmm

Interesting 2006 is mentioned…in Feb NYC got an all timer.  
 

In fact, I recall Tip saying in the fall that while he thought the winter 2006 would be a dud, we could get a snowstorm that equals our seasonal totals in 1 go, which is what happened to me with 27 inches. Wonder if he remembers. Best call ever.  

 

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Interesting 2006 is mentioned…in Feb NYC got an all timer.  
 

In fact, I recall Tip saying in the fall that while he thought the winter 2006 would be a dud, we could get a snowstorm that equals our seasonal totals in 1 go, which is what happened to me with 27 inches. Wonder if he remembers. Best call ever.  

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The GFS looked like the two events next week are basically fropas for us and then some potential winter weather after that?

The GFS offers yet a third option to the EPS vs the GEFS ...

No pattern at all -

This run has a 9.4 wave pattern over the Hemisphere at D11.5.  Garbage solution.  It's clearly having trouble on the interface between patterns out there.   I'd definitely sans any operational GFS runs outside of 7 or so days, even more so than the normal for extended shenanigans, until NCEP figures out the physics of non-linear wave mechanics... 

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It truly seems like we basically get one favorable run for a storm about 7-8 days out and then it immediately goes to shit and locks in for the next 6 days.

the 6z gfs has a nice snowstorm for central and NNE next Thursday into Friday and since then it has trended into basically a weak fropa/cutter that has moved 1000 miles NW and the confluence has disappeared into thin air in two runs.

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