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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't have ENS out that far yet but this look verbatim...given where we are in time frame...I'll take this all day.

Favorable position of the ridge axis, trough digging into the southeast with shortwave energy about to round the base and go negatively tilted towards the Southeast coast. Can't ask for more than that. Who gives a **** what the SLP maps or snowfall maps show

image.png.abc4922cb380e0006e1fbeeebffbc8e0.png

Agree.

My money is still on this threat....like I said yesterday, if this one fails, then I'll admit that the season is in trouble. 

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It’s not a bad place to be… At this range you have something on the maps and that’s it – you don’t need anything else. You can’t ask for anything else. Or you can ask but you’re never going to get it   

As far as what the GFS is actually portraying … it seems it’s trying to do it all in the last couple of cycles based on the intermediate stream. Which closes off too soon trundles around and then lifts up the eastern seaboard while the mid level machinery is actually weakening.  That’s why for the dullard uninspired solution.  The previous “fun” runs had northern stream phasing, that has taken an absence in more recent cycles. However seeing the ensemble mean still having several members with pretty deep pressure anomalies between the Del Mar and Cape Cod and the spread being Northwest I think there’s probably still some members that have that phase. Just guessing.  

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Just now, weathafella said:

Too late.  BOS had an inch last month.

To answer his question though....I think the latest was 2007 when it took until Feb 14th for the first event of an inch or more (cumulative first inch happened in January that year).

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To answer his question though....I think the latest was 2007 when it took until Feb 14th for the first event of an inch or more (cumulative first inch happened in January that year).

Still some late bloomers on the AWSSI (..though not great)

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp 

2022-2023-awssi-ma-hingh.png

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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t remember a great event that trended se from a cutter but I recall several big ones that trended nw from ots so yea I agree, I prefer this spot. 

The December 2020 noreaster started as a cutter to Wisconsin, shifted to a mid Atlantic special in the mid range, then trended like 500 miles NW in the short range and hammered CNE and NNE with blizzard conditions. Even SNE got hit pretty hard with about 12-15 inches in eastern mass, more to the NW. The interesting thing about that storm was it cut pretty far NW, giving Chicago a blizzard. However, it redeveloped and turned into a Miller B, bringing blizzard conditions to New England as well. I don’t really agree with the whole “once a cutter always a cutter” thing, yeah it’s tougher to trend se from a cutter than it is to trend nw from an offshore coastal, but sometimes midwest cutters turn into Miller Bs.

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