Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This has support with the strengthening PV, mjo torch phases and pac jet ext 

Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY.

Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even with a strong PV, I do not buy that the pig is going to camp out over AK long term...maybe blocking doesn't return in January, but that doesn't mean SNE is cooked. TBH, I have been saying all December just give me a very cold Canada, and run a train of SWs into it...I will take my chances with that IMBY.

Blocking is likely to return...maybe its later than January...

Not that I disagree, but it will be a few weeks until we see a cold Canada after Xmas 

 

Everything is completely flipped on where you would want it to start January. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Ugly and concerning 

A4A193E7-6CBE-45CF-9B64-ABB13281EF10.png

Yeah I think Jan 1-10 is likely skunked but we'll probably flip again.

This has been a very variable fall/winter already with a colder October to very mild November to likely BN Dec now back to AN.

I'm prob done with the tracking, the models and the forums after Dec 27. Will come back Jan 15 to hopefully better news. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload.  The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down.  We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times.  Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward.  The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload.  The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down.  We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times.  Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward.  The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter.

End of EPS didn't look terrible, but it will prob take some time to get true cold into the source region again. That said, we can snow with good synoptics even in a stale airmass in early January....and a ridge centered over Utah/Idaho/Alberta always carries some potential.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually, the end of the GEFS/EPS show the beginning of the reload.  The pig is flushed and the SE ridge is getting beaten down.  We START to re-seed Canada with cold and one can extrapolate better times.  Let's see what happens and if that look holds or improves going forward.  The period beyond the awfulness will determine full on ratter vs volatile but sometimes fun winter.

Yeah the low retros and heights rise. It does have agreement with the tropical stuff too. Piggy doesn't look like a long standing feature.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I understand but people have been all in on the so called great pattern on the models...any dissenting points of view were dismissed.

Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce.

At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days

Luck and timing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Was a good pattern, however as ORH wxman pointed out we were unlucky. He is a professional and value his opinion. So it was not a bad pattern, just one that didn't produce.

At the opposite end is Feb 2018. We had EXTREME warmth yet had a 4.5 inch snow event. Was that a good snow pattern? Hit 60 plus multiple days

Luck and timing.

I’ve been skiing in Northern Vermont and it’s been great, I originally thought the pattern just sucked but seeing just how much snow they have up in NNE that changed my perspective. The pattern wasn’t a shutout garbage pattern, we really did just get unlucky with the dominant storm track being inland rather than slightly offshore. Last winter I’d argue was the opposite, the pattern sucked and we actually got lucky with that blizzard in late Jan. Last winter was below average everywhere in the northeast except for eastern Mass, which was above average to well above on the south shore (jackpot zone for the blizzard). It sucks that the storm track locked in west like that, but I have hope that it will shift SE and we get our chance. That cutter and the one week torch might be just what we need to reset the pattern and hopefully we get some luck on our side with the next pattern. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ve been skiing in Northern Vermont and it’s been great, I originally thought the pattern just sucked but seeing just how much snow they have up in NNE that changed my perspective. The pattern wasn’t a shutout garbage pattern, we really did just get unlucky with the dominant storm track being inland rather than slightly offshore. Last winter I’d argue was the opposite, the pattern sucked and we actually got lucky with that blizzard in late Jan. Last winter was below average everywhere in the northeast except for eastern Mass, which was above average to well above on the south shore (jackpot zone for the blizzard). It sucks that the storm track locked in west like that, but I have hope that it will shift SE and we get our chance. That cutter and the one week torch might be just what we need to reset the pattern and hopefully we get some luck on our side with the next pattern.

I've already obtained video..

See the source image

  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/21/2022 at 1:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Frustrating start not withstanding, I do not see a reason to cancel winter.

People are scared to death of 1989-1990 scenario, in which blocking never returned...okay, so worst case I finish just below average again like I have the past four seasons. Still not a rat.

Wasn't too scary in this area.  I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5".  Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN.  The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, tamarack said:

Wasn't too scary in this area.  I lived in Gardiner, Maine then, and we had 5 warning criteria snowstorms in Jan-Feb and the 2 months totaled 51.5".  Jan was indeed mild, warmest by far of our 13 Januarys there while Feb was only 0.7° AN.  The Farmington co-op had 55" in those 2 months, with a 16" storm in late Jan and a max pack of 36" in early Feb.

89-90 would fit right in with my current strings of winter....lame and unremarkable, but not awful.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

89-90 would fit right in with my current strings of winter....lame and unremarkable, but not awful.

Since retention is a significant part of my winter opinions, having 89-90 rank 3rd of 13 adds to its memory. 
(#1 was 93-94, #2 86-87.  95-96 was snowiest, more than 30" above 2nd place, but the thaws pushed its SDDs to 5th.  Also, getting only grazed, 3.7", by the Jan KU subtracts from that winter's satisfaction.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I understand but people have been all in on the so called great pattern on the models...any dissenting points of view were dismissed.

But the pattern was/is good…we just couldn’t cash in. That’s the point. I don’t know what’s so hard to understand about that. 
 

The dissenting opinions from people were in opposition to folks saying the pattern did not change, and wasn’t heading towards something conducive for winter weather. And nothing was further from the truth. So that’s where folks like you and the pope and Qg got push back.  
 

Bottom line fact: pattern changed and became colder and was/is good for winter enthusiasts….we just got/getting shut out due to nuances that can never be seen at length.  But the pattern changed, and there is no denying that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...