January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

21 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Typically, when we are waiting for a pattern transition in the 10-14 day range, discussion of possible stratospheric help in the 2-4 week time frame is filling these pages (for better or worse, usually the latter).  Is there a reason we're not hearing about the possibility of stratospheric help yet this winter? Too early in the season? Not in the cards? Link too weak? 

This is an easy one... if it weren't for the -4 AO already, strat babble would be the talk of the town. Then when that fails, the MJO will be the new OG. However, in between all those emotional keystrokes, a couple of mid range jacked up and untracked events drop some snow anyway. But since it was 10'-12' short of expectations, it went unnoticed while hostile stats and climate posts keep the "hot tag" smokin' in the disco thread

[WxUSAF]

Strat news

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

We just need to move to the polar vortex. What is that address?

 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We just need to move to the polar vortex. What is that address?

 

Mount PSU

Manchester, MD

 

[DE2PA]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We just need to move to the polar vortex. What is that address?

 

 

[Stormfly]

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

We just need to move to the polar vortex. What is that address?

 

83°04'12.9"N 74°02'01.6"W

[WEATHER53]

Jan 5th to 8th fits the two week oscillation pattern we are under so models showing storminess and/or cold will likely be right this time.

Maybe we can even get a meandering low along the coast 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, not a good run, basically says forget winter into mid January.  Looking at individual members still about a third bringing colder air by mid month.

[Chris78]

I wouldn't give up in the 7th - 10th time frame.

There's been some interesting looks in that time frame on some of the OPS.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I wouldn't give up in the 7th - 10th time frame.

There's been some interesting looks in that time frame on some of the OPS.

Never give up after one run!!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS, not a good run, basically says forget winter into mid January.  Looking at individual members still about a third bringing colder air by mid month.

It was never the first half of Jan. Might be a tiny  window or 2 but first half is essentially the transition away from PAC crud and re establishing the cold air source to the North. 

[CentralVaNATS]

It was never the first half of Jan. Might be a tiny  window or 2 but first half is essentially the transition away from PAC crud and re establishing the cold air source to the North. 

As long as the snowpack keeps building out west for my Feb ski trip.
The east can torch.
I need more Western POW.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Maybe close the blinds for at least the next 2 weeks

We've pretty much known this for a week now. It's going to be at least mid January until we have a chance.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We've pretty much known this for a week now. It's going to be at least mid January until we have a chance.

I think there might be a thread the needle sort of window before then but yes, mid month on should get things at least more sustained seasonal with some 'legit' threats before we hit another thaw. Thus is Nina...small windows sandwiched between thaws and cutters. No 2 are exactly alike but thats the general theme.

[CAPE]

51 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I wouldn't give up in the 7th - 10th time frame.

There's been some interesting looks in that time frame on some of the OPS.

Generally agree, and still hints on the ens means although the most recent runs have been more meh for the potential around the 8-9th. Still think the window centered on the 12th could be interesting, assuming no more can kicking ofc. Really need to get the Pac jet to calm down a bit.

[Ralph Wiggum]

And wrt threading the needle events, we do those as good as Stevie Wonder trying to find a needle in a haystack.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

This is an easy one... if it weren't for the -4 AO already, strat babble would be the talk of the town. Then when that fails, the MJO will be the new OG. However, in between all those emotional keystrokes, a couple of mid range jacked up and untracked events drop some snow anyway. But since it was 10'-12' short of expectations, it went unnoticed while hostile stats and climate posts keep the "hot tag" smokin' in the disco thread

That's kinda how 2017/18 went...MJO and ens staring while we nickle and dimed our way to 18", lol Honestly I've started tuning out the MJO and strat discussion...because that usually means the pattern ain't great!

 

P.S. Ya really think something pops up in the mid range during a torch? Or were you just talking in general?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Generally agree, and still hints on the ens means although the most recent runs have been more meh for the potential around the 8-9th. Still think the window centered on the 12th could be interesting, assuming no more can kicking ofc. Really need to get the Pac jet to calm down a bit.

Is counting on a pac jet relaxing in a nina something to bet on? (or am I confusing that with the -PNA?)

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Pac jet calming down in a nina ain't too good to bet on, is it? (Or am I confusing that with the PNA?)

Pac jet is a problem regardless of ENSO, esp in recent winters. We want an extended Pac jet in general for a +PNA, but there is such a thing as too extended, which is what we are seeing now on guidance.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pac jet is a problem regardless of ENSO, esp in recent winters. We want an extended Pac jet in general for a +PNA, but there is such a thing as too extended, which is what we are seeing now on guidance.

Ah...And I'm guessing with last week's cutter it wasn't extended enough? Lol

[CAPE]

Look at the EPS. At this point the NPJ is too extended- left exit region favors lower pressure below(towards the surface). In this case that's a trough in GoA, and digging south of there...no good.

Towards the end of the run the Jet retracts some, and we get an improving look at h5 with a +PNA developing. Pretty quickly things look better downstream.

 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah...And I'm guessing with last week's cutter it wasn't extended enough? Lol

There are actually NPJ phase diagrams that define the different configurations- extended, retracted, more poleward and extended etc. Per those diagrams, the combo of extended and/or poleward favors a +PNA. But like I said, too extended causes the trough to be too far east and impinge on the west coast. Always a delicate balance. Getting snow is hard here lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are actually NPJ phase diagrams that define the different configurations- extended, retracted, more poleward and extended etc. Per those diagrams, the combo of extended and/or poleward favors a +PNA. But like I said, too extended causes the trough to be too far east and impinge on the west coast. Always a delicate balance. Getting snow is hard here lol.

The more seasons I track the more that rings true, lol (What was the configuration of the jet last week?)

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The more seasons I track the more that rings true, lol (What was the phase of the jet last week?)

It was generally extended, but not on steroids. We had a ridge along the west coast a couple days before Christmas iirc. Ofc we also had a massive EPO ridge at that point too. I will see if I can dig up the NPJ phase diagrams a bit later.

[CAPE]

Basically a jet extension (a) favors a ridge in the W US, a +PNA. A combo of extended and poleward shift (e) also favors a +PNA. A -PNA is mostly associated with jet retractions/equatorward shifts.

Fig. 5.

Composite mean 250-hPa wind speed (m s−1) is shaded in the fill pattern, 250-hPa geopotential height is contoured in black every 120 m, and 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies are contoured in solid red and dashed blue every 30 m for positive and negative values, respectively, 4 days following the initiation of (a) a jet extension, (c) a jet retraction, (e) a poleward shift, and (g) an equatorward shift regime. Composite anomalies of mean sea level pressure are contoured in solid and dashed black every 2 hPa for positive and negative values, respectively, and 850-hPa temperature anomalies are shaded in the fill pattern every 1 K, 4 days following the initiation of (b) a jet extension, (d) a jet retraction, (f) a poleward shift, and (h) an equatorward shift regime. The numbers in the bottom right of each panel indicate the number of cases included in each composite. Stippled areas represent locations where the 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies or 850-hPa temperature anomalies are statistically distinct from climatology at the 99% confidence level.

 

Full paper-

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/34/1/waf-d-18-0106_1.xml#fig5

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

There are actually NPJ phase diagrams that define the different configurations- extended, retracted, more poleward and extended etc. Per those diagrams, the combo of extended and/or poleward favors a +PNA. But like I said, too extended causes the trough to be too far east and impinge on the west coast. Always a delicate balance. Getting snow is hard here lol.

What factors impact the strength and position of the NPJ?  From weather 101 I would expect the strength to positively correlate with the latitudinal temperature gradient.  That would make me expect the NPJ to be getting weaker.  So I guess that's not the whole story.  I remember earlier seeing something about EAMT playing a role.  I also remember one of @psuhoffman's "sweet dreams for @Maestrobjwa" posts from last year saying that the WPAC warm pool might be making it stronger? 

Since there's nothing to track, lets do a NPJ tutorial, if anyone has knowledge they'd like to share.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What factors impact the strength and position of the NPJ?  From weather 101 I would expect the strength to positively correlate with the latitudinal temperature gradient.  That would make me expect the NPJ to be getting weaker.  So I guess that's not the whole story.  I remember earlier seeing something about EAMT playing a role.  I also remember one of @psuhoffman's "sweet dreams for @Maestrobjwa" posts from last year saying that the WPAC warm pool might be making it stronger? 

Since there's nothing to track, lets do a NPJ tutorial, if anyone has knowledge they'd like to share.

EAMT absolutely plays a role. ENSO state has impacts on the jetstream configuration. Hadley cell expansion related to climate change..

[DarkSharkWX]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Basically a jet extension (a) favors a ridge in the W US, a +PNA. A combo of extended and poleward shift (e) also favors a +PNA. A -PNA is mostly associated with jet retractions/equatorward shifts.

Fig. 5.

Composite mean 250-hPa wind speed (m s−1) is shaded in the fill pattern, 250-hPa geopotential height is contoured in black every 120 m, and 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies are contoured in solid red and dashed blue every 30 m for positive and negative values, respectively, 4 days following the initiation of (a) a jet extension, (c) a jet retraction, (e) a poleward shift, and (g) an equatorward shift regime. Composite anomalies of mean sea level pressure are contoured in solid and dashed black every 2 hPa for positive and negative values, respectively, and 850-hPa temperature anomalies are shaded in the fill pattern every 1 K, 4 days following the initiation of (b) a jet extension, (d) a jet retraction, (f) a poleward shift, and (h) an equatorward shift regime. The numbers in the bottom right of each panel indicate the number of cases included in each composite. Stippled areas represent locations where the 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies or 850-hPa temperature anomalies are statistically distinct from climatology at the 99% confidence level.

 

Full paper-

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/34/1/waf-d-18-0106_1.xml#fig5

Another presentation about the NPJ if anyone is interested in it:
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Another presentation about the NPJ if anyone is interested in it:
https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf

That's a PowerPoint presentation(in pdf) based on the paper referenced in my post. Good overview.

[WesternFringe]

7 hours ago, jayyy said:

Jeez, this thread went down the shitter. Let’s move the back and forth about average snowfall and global warming elsewhere please. There is a banter and panic room thread. Please use it if you’re going to going into defcon mode 7 days into winter.

There is zero evidence that the days of seeing solid winters in the MA is over. The mid Atlantic to northeast had a pretty epic run from the mid 90s into the early 2000s and again from 2010-2015, minus a handful of truly crummy winters. To all of a sudden say the “long term trends are alarming” isn’t a sincere analysis based on fact. It’s mainly based on feelings about a lackluster past 6ish years. And even that depends on location.

Northern MD has actually fared pretty well during some of those winters. Does it suck that DC didn’t get in on the fun? Of course it does. But that’s the nature of living in a marginal climate where your average snowfall for any given season is roughly 20”. Sometimes you’re going to have an extended period of bad luck / outcomes when a degree or two and 50 miles makes all of the difference. Meanwhile, Buffalo is at 100” for the winter and it’s December 27th. The weather is unpredictable like that.

Where I’m from in the lower Hudson valley had an awesome stretch of above average seasons (snowfall) from 2000-2015, minus a few duds, with a good number of the past century’s top KUs occurring in that timeframe. We can’t honestly look at the past 20 or so winters and say “welp, guess we’re screwed forever”. That’s nonsense.

Can’t wait to flip back to +ENSO state and to get our mod. Niño so this crapola about it never snowing again can finally stop.

This.