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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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Looks like maybe 4-6" for Indy, so I'm at least happy that we have a good chance for a white Christmas. Though I'm actually traveling to East Central Indiana and Southern Indiana for Christmas. But we'll hopefully be able to get a little sledding in on Christmas Eve :)

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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59 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Looking real good for MI. Good luck to you all!

Thinking a 1-2” call is solid for MBY. Anything more is gravy right now. :D

I seriously wish we could share some of this snow with you all. In my back yard we've gotten about 43" of lake effect already this year. My roof needs a break.

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I've got family wanting to know if they should make the drive from Nashville to Chicagoland Friday; my initial reaction was no but if we're set to get like 3" in the city, doesn't strike me as the kind of crippling blizzard set-up that was being advertised (both in terms of amounts, obviously, but also shifting the focus of winds east towards MI). This is a mess

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18 minutes ago, Michigander said:

I seriously wish we could share some of this snow with you all. In my back yard we've gotten about 43" of lake effect already this year. My roof needs a break.

Appreciate the sentiment. Looks like we’ll get a little, so that’ll help the mood. :D

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2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I've got family wanting to know if they should make the drive from Nashville to Chicagoland Friday; my initial reaction was no but if we're set to get like 3" in the city, doesn't strike me as the kind of crippling blizzard set-up that was being advertised (both in terms of amounts, obviously, but also shifting the focus of winds east towards MI). This is a mess

They could still probably knock at least a few hours off of their commute time by just coming in Thursday for sure

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I've got family wanting to know if they should make the drive from Nashville to Chicagoland Friday; my initial reaction was no but if we're set to get like 3" in the city, doesn't strike me as the kind of crippling blizzard set-up that was being advertised (both in terms of amounts, obviously, but also shifting the focus of winds east towards MI). This is a mess

I’m in a similar boat, supposed to drive from Chicago to Dayton, OH on Friday. I’m worried about the conditions through north-central Indiana especially. We’re gonna have a very disappointed niece if we cancel, but I don’t want to end up stuck on the side of the highway either. Really tough call for a lot of us.


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6 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I've got family wanting to know if they should make the drive from Nashville to Chicagoland Friday; my initial reaction was no but if we're set to get like 3" in the city, doesn't strike me as the kind of crippling blizzard set-up that was being advertised (both in terms of amounts, obviously, but also shifting the focus of winds east towards MI). This is a mess

Interstate 65 north of Indy is frequently a mess without snowy (or near blizzard) conditions.  I'd avoid Friday travel.

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9 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I've got family wanting to know if they should make the drive from Nashville to Chicagoland Friday; my initial reaction was no but if we're set to get like 3" in the city, doesn't strike me as the kind of crippling blizzard set-up that was being advertised (both in terms of amounts, obviously, but also shifting the focus of winds east towards MI). This is a mess

Rain to ice would still probably be an issue. Dropping down to single-digit temperatures immediately after .5-1 inches of rain would make most roads pretty sketchy I'd imagine.

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I suppose the biggest question now is, for those more knowledgeable, is this looking like a believable final track or do more shifts appear in the cards? Between snow coming in above expectations in the Pacific NW & recent model trends favoring east shifts, feels like no one knows what's happening (or, more accurately, I have no clue what's happening).

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

To my eye, the upper dynamics of the system still doesn't mesh with the surface picture the models are putting out. I would think that a system with a jet streak like this

200wh.conus.thumb.png.4f7d890ae08e87a1077c9e4107e1d811.png

Should have a more consolidated vort field than this

500hv.conus.thumb.png.af52ce8b7014bea11cce6c91526871b5.png

My guess would be that the remnant jet over Wisconsin on Wednesday develops just enough to muddy the axis and delay the main jet from consolidating. But if you look at the strength of the two streaks, you'd think the southern one would be bullying the northern. Not the other way around.  

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