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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs continues to hold firm on its more eastern solution. Going to be a gfs vs euro showdown again. Obviously can't believe anything at this range because it's all fair game until we get adequate sampling of the pieces in play. 

Until the GFS gives us a reason to believe it, it has been awful. So I would at least put more weight in the non-GFS solutions until we get more data 

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15 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Waiting for the euro but hopeful for the classic “every model shifts southeast then baby steps northwest”. 

My guess is Euro will slide SE in future runs to meet GFS and CMC. It might tick back far enough NW to keep you and southside in the game. LES may bail out Alex and NW burbs get screwed again.

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Trend on all 0z OP guidance has been SE overall.
This is mainly due to changes in handling of the PV lobe in Canada, ridging ahead of the incoming wave/building trough and changes in ridging building into the West Coast.

0z Euro the only OP guidance not to move SE in any significant fashion.

A bit less amped, which altered things a bit though.
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0z Euro the only OP guidance not to move SE in any significant fashion.

A bit less amped, which altered things a bit though.
Yep that wasn't any sort of trend toward the other guidance. Small change in the scheme of things and good run to run consistency given the complexity of the setup.

Expected more of a shift given how the other guidance really emphasized on the Hudson Bay polar vortex lobe suppressing heights enough to force the storm farther east.

The Euro is still letting the main PV (potential vorticity) anomaly/500 mb low do its thing and in this case it was ever so slightly less amped, leading to slightly farther east surface low position over Michigan.

As is, high end blizzard for western Lower Michigan and far northwest and north central IN. Out this way, that would be a very high impact storm with warning criteria snow amounts, temps in single digits and winds gusting to 50 mph.


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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Nice snow dome right over me. Ha. Peoria dome lives on. On euro miss that initial wave north and don't get the wrap around as the low occluded. 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate.  

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate.  

Well that's even more depressing. Lol. But you're probably right with those flakes getting shredded. Hopefully can get some more qpf involved or get in on 1st wave or wraparound. 

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Not sure about the loop near southern L Michigan on the ECM, but anyway, all models now coming into a fairly good agreement that this is essentially a windstorm with severe lake effect squall potential and moderate synoptic scale due to lack of moisture and short duration of over-running at any given location. It's a bit different in evolution from 1-26-1978 in that it deepens over the Midwest rather than bombing out from a southern origin (AL to Lake Huron for Jan 78).

Looks like a top ten wind event and depends where you are relative to squall bands for snow or actual blizzard, but ground blizzard would be widespread given some snow and the fierce wind gusts. The chill would also be lethal. The timing could hardly be worse, start of a weekend Christmas travel period. That's going to turn into a four-day stay at some stranger's farm house in some cases. Pack gear.

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

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