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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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The 12z EPS is rolling out and the operational ECMWF is the most extreme solution SLP wise that far south vs any of the individual EPS members. EPS did trend more toward the general idea of the operational run vs previous couple EPS cycles though in handling some of the key mid-level features.

That 12z Euro run is without exaggeration the wildest non fantasy range model solution for a winter storm in this area that I can recall in my time here (since July 2010). But the first paragraph highlights why these operational runs still need to be taken with a large grain of salt at this lead time. The potential in the pattern next week is certainly high as we've been saying, but the complex evolution will take several more days to resolve.


Edit: From the New England sub (where the mood is as you'd expect after the non GFS runs today), look at the change in the ECMWF at the same valid time of 06z Friday 12/13 between the 12z runs yesterday and today.


8cfa78dd56f1e604d3fdbc4d8948c06b.gif

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i'm surprised there wasn't more mention of the 12z euro than has been.

Probably because verbatim, for the vast majority of the subforum, it's a bit too strong and too far NW. Most of Wisconsin, Iowa, parts of N. Illinois and parts of Minnesota do well, but everyone else (Chicagoland included) sees mostly rain or mixing issues followed by massive dry slotting.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Probably because verbatim, for the vast majority of the subforum, it's a bit too strong and too far NW. Most of Wisconsin, Iowa, parts of N. Illinois and parts of Minnesota do well, but everyone else (Chicagoland included) sees mostly rain or mixing issues followed by massive dry slotting.

still a significant solution though, nonetheless. very spread the wealth too, actually.

nearly no shot in hell that would verify, but even enough for me to comment on it at this distance.

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35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

still a significant solution though, nonetheless. very spread the wealth too, actually.

nearly no shot in hell that would verify, but even enough for me to comment on it at this distance.

On that note, warm air occlusion and 925mb winds of 65-75KT on the W/NW side of the storm system. About as a significant solution you can see around these parts. Check out some soundings west of the storm system as well, tropopause down to near 700mb.

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.149c111e89f714b2a6d54f6b35f9a6aa.png

925wh.us_mw.thumb.png.fc27ec9701123464087d9317f2d61a6d.png

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I have no idea what could happen, there literally are several different solutions and every run of every model comes in with something new. I'd lean cutter with an occlusion just not as far west as the current storm, but beyond that I have no clue. We probably wont get one at least until Sunday at the earliest.

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Funny b/c gfs was the model originally showing a GLC and really wound up sfc low for many runs and then it started bouncing all over the place. Now euro is the one showing this with some support from other global guidance. No way we will get something as extreme as 12z euro but even half that would be amazing. Gfs seems like it is baby stepping towards its original solution. Would like to see it cut more west and track a little more north than 18z showed. 

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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

18z GFS was back to being a nice storm for parts of the subforum. The Ohio Valley and Eastern Lakes got slammed.

Glancing blow for SEMI. SLP's in TN and WV just don't deliver here as you well know. Still chasing my 2" Grinch storm, lol. E of me, now W of me again. S of me, maybe N of me, or just the old middle finger mega-dry slot this region is famous for. CPC still has me in a risk for +SN/+Wind/-Temps so too soon to throw a towel. This area is certainly the longest running CWA at this LAT without the "B" warned event, and by miles compared to others. I think last "B" headline to deliver was Jan '99. Jan '05 may have been a close call. Been a while that's for sure. 

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35 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Glancing blow for SEMI. SLP's in TN and WV just don't deliver here as you well know. Still chasing my 2" Grinch storm, lol. E of me, now W of me again. S of me, maybe N of me, or just the old middle finger mega-dry slot this region is famous for. CPC still has me in a risk for +SN/+Wind/-Temps so too soon to throw a towel. This area is certainly the longest running CWA at this LAT without the "B" warned event, and by miles compared to others. I think last "B" headline to deliver was Jan '99. Jan '05 may have been a close call. Been a while that's for sure. 

In my opinion those are two overused issues brought up. Dry slots happen in most storms but it's not like any areas prone to them more than another. As for blizzard? I think the last one was February 2003 but blizzard is blizzard is more about wind and visibility. I'm totally fine getting a big storm without blizzard criteria. But if it happens, bring it

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Gfs being stubborn. Clipper like system to nor'easter transition. It's not wanting to do a GLC. Either it will be the lone model right or completely wrong. 
The other problem is the GEFS is still too non dispersive to glean much from it when the operational is quite different from the other globals. It's common for ensemble runs to shift in the general direction of the op, but the GEFS hugs closer to the op than the EPS tends to, which does a better job capturing the full spectrum of potential outcomes. Part of that is having only 30 members vs the EPS having 51, though non dispersiveness has been a persistent issue over the years with the GEFS. You can see the issue just comparing the 18z and 00z GEFS. There was a wholesale shift toward the op.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The other problem is the GEFS is still too non dispersive to glean much from it when the operational is quite different from the other globals. It's common for ensemble runs to shift in the general direction of the op, but the GEFS hugs closer to the op than the EPS tends to, which does a better job capturing the full spectrum of potential outcomes. Part of that is having only 30 members vs the EPS having 51, though non dispersiveness has been a persistent issue over the years with the GEFS. You can see the issue just comparing the 18z and 00z GEFS. There was a wholesale shift toward the op.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I never knew that, thanks for that info. Definitely eager to see how this evolves over the coming days. I wonder if euro will hold firm or will cave to a gfs like solution with a coastal storm and only a glancing blow here from northern stream energy. 

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26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Gfs being stubborn. Clipper like system to nor'easter transition. It's not wanting to do a GLC. Either it will be the lone model right or completely wrong. 

Didnt we have repeated GFS vs. Everyone standoffs last year with last second (within 48 hr) caves repeatedly by the GFS? 

We will see if the "upgrade" does anything, but certainly not putting much weight in any solution (and even less with a GFS outlier). 

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Didnt we have repeated GFS vs. Everyone standoffs last year with last second (within 48 hr) caves repeatedly by the GFS? 

We will see if the "upgrade" does anything, but certainly not putting much weight in any solution (and even less with a GFS outlier). 

I think we did but can't remember if it was gfs caving to euro or euro caving to gfs. Probably the latter 

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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

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