Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Im just trying to keep my expectations in check. Been better at this since 2012. Are all the ingredients present for a potential MECS/HECS? Yes. Does that equate to a lock? Absolutely not. We do get these looks every once in a while. Some work out, most turn out to be SECS here due to timing/spacing issues. It still takes a perfect setup to get a perfect storm, lets not forget that. Lets just see how this one plays out. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im just trying to keep my expectations in check. Been better at this since 2012. Are all the ingredients present for a potential MECS/HECS? Yes. Does that equate to a lock? Absolutely not. We do get these looks every once in a while. Some work out, most turn out to be SECS here due to timing/spacing issues. It still takes a perfect setup to get a perfect storm, lets not forget that. Lets just see how this one plays out. I’m definitely excited - the last White Christmas in Philly was in 2009 - but correct that we still need a lot of features in place to get a MECS/BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Steady rains really settling in smashing against the window and 25mph+ winds should be kicking in a little later. Rain/snow retreating...even my buddy Jim may turn to rain. Temps up to 43F/steady rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 From Mount Holly This changes as we go to the end of the week. While there are timing and placement differences with the long term guidance, all of the long term models are indicating the potential for a coastal storm to affect the east coast Thursday into Friday. Each have a coastal storm developing to our south, before a disturbance moves in from the west, bringing colder air with it to the area, and strengthening the low as it approaches. This is a week away, so there is plenty of uncertainty, so for now we will stay close to the NBM for the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Current storm is overperforming in terms of wind and rain (and tidal flooding), down here on Barnegat Bay. First post since the blizzard last year. This upcoming setup has me stoked. Hoping for a 2015/2016 winter repeat, in terms of coastals. If any of these storms materialize into something worth documenting, I'll do so once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'll be up next week boys. No one wants to see a snow storm ten days out. If you want snow this needs to disappear off the models for four days and come back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The wind is ferocious up here power went out and it's ripping Xmas lights off houses strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 How many times have we been here a week away from a potential SECS/ MECS and had it go down in flames, But man it sure is fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 0z GFS doesn’t quite do it but the 500mb setup still looks incredible. Can’t expect every run to slam us from now till next Friday. The models will waffle a lot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ralph's fault he said white ground is enough and look what GFS and CMC did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Raleigh NC the place to be on that GFS run, back to back jackpots less than 3 days apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GEFS all systems go for BOOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Ralph's fault he said white ground is enough and look what GFS and CMC did. And euro. Instead of rags to riches we go from riches to rags at 0z. Im sure it isnt the last big shift on the models one way of the other either. I said we wouldnt hone in on actual clustering til Saturday night/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6z GFS basically shows some wild stuff - an active pattern of lows running along the southern CONUS and in this run, it seems to try to spin up a Miller A and then a couple of Miller Bs starting next week and into Christmas. I guess you could say it's throwing spaghetti at a wall and one strand might stick. I know pretty much all the models have issues in the mid-range, which IMHO, is really a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS decides to go with lighter stuff up here Friday but adds a weak system on Sunday with Norman Rockwell flakes and cold for Christmas Day. Going to see numerous more changes some good some bad. Buckle up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 58 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS decides to go with lighter stuff up here Friday but adds a weak system on Sunday with Norman Rockwell flakes and cold for Christmas Day. Going to see numerous more changes some good some bad. Buckle up. I’m not HECS hunting, just hoping for snow on the ground/flakes flying for Christmas—whatever Mother Nature needs to do to make that happen is fine with me. The concern is if late next week ends up like our current system (inland runner) it might be time to have the dreaded “atmospheric memory” talk. Hey, at least we’re tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Rain will end this AM. We have picked up 1.51" of rain and melted snow so far along with the 0.3" of snow/sleet yesterday. Of note with this event we have now exceeded our normal annual rainfall here in Chester County of 50.21". It looks likely we will now have colder than normal weather to close out 2022. The exception could be if the east coast storm next week tracks like the latest European model is showing. In that case we would have a brief warmup and change any brief snow to rain next Thursday into Friday. The models will change again many times before then. The record high for today is 67 degrees set in 1971. The record low is also the earliest seasonal record of a below zero reading as on this date in 1917 we fell to 1 degree below zero. Record rain is the 1.80" today in 1902. Our record snow was just 2 years ago when we received 7.3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 A little sloppy and disjointed vs the same map from 12z yesterday, but this look is close to producing...very close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong but I'm not seeing major wholesale changes at 500 MB between yesterdays 12z GEFS + EPS and last nights 00z GEFS + EPS. OP's are going to swing wildly in this time range, I can't remember the last storm that didn't budge 7-8 days out... If things are still a mess come Monday though then it may be time to get worried but the ensembles are still showing big time white potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 BTW I'm on team "get on the board" with this system. I won't be disappointed with a 2-4" type storm. The pattern is ripe for a big dog but since I can only remember 1 white Christmas in my lifetime, I would really take anything that keeps the ground white through the 25th. That still looks very favorable at this junction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 -2 in Altoona and a balmy 58 in Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Newman said: -2 in Altoona and a balmy 58 in Philadelphia What in the world... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12z Goofus looked fun. Let's see if it has any company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 My lord the 12z GFS for Christmas Eve/Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 12z Goofus looked fun. Let's see if it has any company. It doesn't for now tbh. BUT it has been performing decently at this range since the upgrade. Did OK with yesterday's system after 2 blip runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 UKIE, ICON, CMC, EURO all glorified arctic fronts. Newly upgraded GFS a MECS+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I have an occasional flake mixed in with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The differences between the CMC and GFS are huge even 5 days out. There is no confluence whatsoever on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 GEFS improved at h5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ridge backs west just a little and the CMC/ICON end up in Lake Superior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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