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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU short term:

 

Showers are currently overspreading south-central PA, and a few sleet pellets may mix in at times. There may be a lull in the activity from 4-6 PM before steadier precip arrives this evening. I expect a general 0.3-0.6” of beneficial rain to fall by daybreak Tuesday.

That is basically what the short term meso's show regardless of snow or rain.    You eastern guys really drop temp wise after 6-7PM.   On another note, the MA is starting to get wound up about a Hecs look on the EPS. LOL. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Euro still thump happy for Friday.     Well positioned high Cads many to a win.  Low comes up TN into OH Valley then transfers to the coast off NJ.  NE parts of the forum get 1-2 feet in the next 4 days albeit a warm up in between.   10:1 of just Friday below.

image.thumb.png.49d029f849c240a7c7093830c1d869a5.png

 

Schuylkill County screw zone... :P :lol: :whistle:

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We just had a wind gust of 44 but it was blowing some sleet pellets down with it so confused whether this was a Canderson gust or not.   Candersons winds are not wintery from what I hear. LOL 

Unless there were shingles or garbage cans embedded in the gust it cannot count as a Canderson gale (or gust)

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On 2/26/2023 at 10:36 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

Would you say that this time frame is a little early in the pattern? I was thinking the following week or two might be a better chance as the pattern starts to break down. Next weekend still seems precarious to me as it will take perfect timing to avoid either suppression or a cutter. 

To answer your question from yesterday, here was a portion of my post from a couple days prior back on Friday.. which actually also refers to a post the day before haha. My thoughts are usually around but they typically get buried when it gets active and the snowmaps start flying. 

On 2/24/2023 at 4:01 PM, MAG5035 said:

If we do end up hitting on that 3/3 event I’d actually consider it a bonus because even at that point we’re not set up in terms of the overall pattern other than the already established -NAO. The EPO/WPO nosedive starts occurring right after this event timeframe and most guidance doesn’t get the MJO back into 8 until after the first week of March. The result in the east is continued changeable weather in terms of temp anomalies and possibly even dealing with another cutter after the potential 3/3 storm.  When it does get back there, it appears it may be of a much stronger magnitude. I touched upon those things in my post yesterday and how I think the MJO loop back served to delay this big pattern change that I feel has to come at some point given eventual lining up of all these supporting teleconnections. 

So with 3 days advanced since that post there’s no changes to that opinion although as I’ve mentioned the last couple posts for the late week event that I was really high on the potential. It’s crazy how sideways this went in the last 24-36hrs on the progs.. and the last couple days overall when the Euro had the main snow swath to the south of us. Storm gets too wound up too early. It’s going to hit the block and try to go to the coast but that strong primary is going to get west of us instead of sliding under us by the looks of it. The result is instead of honing in a mostly snow event for C-PA it’s going to be trying to figure out the degree of front end and mixing (sigh). I think if we stay as is with what most guidance has as the track today that we probably eventually correct to having some kind of a reasonable front end with resistance at the low levels, especially east of the Alleghenies. Global models have been presenting various degrees of mixing amongst various different scenarios of WAA aloft. That won’t start being resolved until we get into range of the short term/high res guidance. 

At any rate here’s where we’re at this week during these two events

EPO

image.thumb.png.48c2d5bcf0b27e4ba2177e1e96d16ea7.png

WPO

image.thumb.png.bc9e535c2ad69a94c309d61297ada629.png

MJO

image.png.56d28f4e0190b15e201f815d90c674f0.png

So first off, MJO is squarely in phase 7 during this timeframe, some of the other guidance touches all the way back into 6 the next couple days with the loop. Pretty much everything isn’t getting into 8 after the first week into March (generally 7th to 8th or so). Phase 7 MJO isn’t ideal for storm track as it still favors southeast ridging. Like I mentioned, we probably can get away with a weaker storm sneaking under us but not a wound up 970s low coming up into Missouri.

The first two charts are the EPO and WPO, the gigantic reversal to negative doesn’t completely occur until pretty much the timeframe that the MJO gets to 8. This big shift occurs (and the MJO to 8) right after the late week storm timeframe. These are all the keys to the pattern change we’ve been looking for. We haven’t made it into 8-1 all winter in the MJO and the brief time the WPO was negative was the arctic discharge in December. -EPO has also coincided with our brief winter opportunities/attempts. So the fact that all those teleconnections are headed that way while the stratwarm induced high latitude blocking (-NAO) is already getting established probably bodes well for a cold/unsettled pattern setting up for us. The EPO/WPO flip allows for direct arctic sourced cold into the US which will press across the CONUS even with some western troughing (-PNA). 

In the pattern related post I had before the above one I quoted, I was lamenting the fact that the MJO backtracking was going to delay this occurring. If it would’ve driven right into 8/1/2 I think we would’ve been rocking right now. Instead we’re probably talking mid month and onward. You can see the response of these aforementioned teleconnection flips in the longer range of the deterministic guidance/ensembles now.. not just the weeklies and extended GFS. There’s a cold period coming. It’s getting close though in the meantime this week, this current system tonight is going to finallly get NYC solidly on the board with a decent event. The interior upstate NY/New England  over to the top third to half of the 95 corridor is starting to catch up on snow departures. 

 

 

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