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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Here is a super geeky report. I read it was a thunderstorm.  http://www.appliedweatherassociates.com/uploads/1/3/8/1/13810758/smethport-asdso_paper-final.pdf
If i am reading this correctly they had 34" in 5 hours and according to stream gauges significantly more falling just east of town in the mountains.

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6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If i am reading this correctly they had 34" in 5 hours and according to stream gauges significantly more falling just east of town in the mountains.

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Their conclusion suggests it could have happened but "not sure" as there was a high degree of spatial variability (different but closely related locations had very different results.)

 
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23 minutes ago, paweather said:

 

 

WOW! This is 100 no need to change locked in :D

 

gfs_asnow_us_44.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The actual snow map (why am I even talking about stupid snow maps, but I digress) is much less than that...though still impressive. 

 

There is a lot of mixed precip in that storm that is not snow but is counted in those maps.

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

You mention USV and I was corrected on that earlier this year so curious what you guys call the USV?  Apparently the USV is actually in NY per a NY'er that corrected me.  I never knew that, but I think my view was PA specific. 

 

 

Interesting! I have never truly lived in Danville, as my parents moved here after I was an adult. They've been in this area 19 years. I always remember WGAL when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s in the LSV referring to this area up here as the "Upper Susquehanna Valley" when discussing winter storms and referring to their snowfall maps.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Interesting! I have never truly lived in Danville, as my parents moved here after I was an adult. They've been in this area 19 years. I always remember WGAL when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s in the LSV referring to this area up here as the "Upper Susquehanna Valley" when discussing winter storms and referring to their snowfall maps.

Yep, basically the same here until one of your NY brethren corrected me.  That one map I posted suggested Williamsport was not actually in the main Susquehanna Valley at all.  But, like @Itstrainingtime said if the local NWS uses their own designation maybe there is more than one interpretation. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep, basically the same here until one of your NY brethren corrected me.  That one map I posted suggested Williamsport was not actually in the main Susquehanna Valley at all.  But, like @Itstrainingtime said if the local NWS uses their own designation maybe there is more than one interpretation. 

Yeah, obviously there are different interpretations. Williamsport is sort of in its own little world. The Scranton stations include them in their news and weather reports, but they're sort of far over from there. It sort of gets "semi-included" in the newscasts out of Harrisburg, Scranton, and Elmira. I would almost consider them more a part of the Corning/Elmira/Mansfield area. But considering it is located ALONG the West Branch of the Susquehanna, it's ridiculous that some think it is not part of the Susquehanna River Valley.

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Just now, Jns2183 said:

Ill always remeber the mid atlantic forum from 2010. They seemed to take more glee that supression killed the srorms for boston and NYC as they did from the storms themselves

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When we were all one forum, just Northeast which included Richmond to Maine, it was ugly.  There was a subset of people who tried to talk about everyone but for the most part it was people talking to others in their area but on a wide-open forum so it led to lots of angst. 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 18Z GFS March 3/4th storm is a winter all wrapped up in a couple days for the northern 2/3 of PA. Close to 30" for some including Voyagers house. 

Hopefully this is the one that finally gets it done!

The blocking is in place by this point.

What a long duration Winter storm. Verbatim this run for southern PA is snow to mix back to heavy snow. It starts next Friday am & does not end until eating afternoon next Saturday.

B353A4C6-6497-460F-96D2-71F73C26556F.png

550DB0EA-B2AE-4669-943C-2398DC05FEBF.png

563535D1-562B-4FA8-9BB6-CC3960E88969.png

057CBAF2-EF6C-44BD-AED2-34409A33E491.png

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55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z GFS is a lot more interesting for Tue.   LSV is still not golden but northern half of PA has a full scale winter storm on their hands.    Bostonians are probably getting amped up. 

According to my NWS forecast, their is no precip in their forecast at all for Tuesday next week.

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good example of why I said upper 2/3's of PA.    Rou and ITT do not get a winters worth of snow on the GFS. 

Lol, if this would somehow verify, I think most of us would happily settle for 8 to 19 inches of snow in CTP!

I am good with the 17 inches at MDT! That would probably make their top 20 all time snow storm list.

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Monday
A chance of rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
Rain. Low around 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Breezy.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, 
 
That's my NWS forecast.
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3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
Monday
A chance of rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
Rain. Low around 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Breezy.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, 
 
That's my NWS forecast.

I believed you, I was saying the zones were odd.  You are a great poster so sorry if you took it that I did not believe you. 

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18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I believed you, I was saying the zones were odd.  You are a great poster so sorry if you took it that I did not believe you. 

No I didn't say that you didn't believe me. It's just that the models show a storm, but their forecast shows something entirely different. Talk About discrepancies with their model and their forecast. I guess they don't believe the models anymore. 

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

1/3 that id be happy8fbb0aa778e2173655a2f0d572480465.jpg

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i really wish but this will either go to the lakes or out to sea. same broken record shows giant storm 10 days out only to shit on your chest and be like maybe next time.

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