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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS was close for the LSV this weekend. I think a low taking this track from NC to the DelMarVa would have more precip in general on the northwest side.

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Everything seems to be against us this winter. Even when it starts looking good for a storm with potential, somehow some way it just seem to go away or misses us. Maybe we should think about spring, then maybe, just maybe we'll get pummeled by a storm thats forecast to miss us. 

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Our overnight low was a warm 35.7 (normal is 22.1).  Our mild weather continues through Friday with closer to seasonable temperatures by the weekend. Our best rain chance looks to be tomorrow afternoon into the evening but not a wash out.
Records for today: High (64) 1965 / Low (4) 1895 / Precipitation (1.00") 1895 / Snow (10.0") 1895. Of note today in 1895 was the 2nd day of a 2-day snowstorm that began at 8am on the 7th and ended at 5am on the 8th with very cold temps being reported as the thermometer remain below 8 degrees fro the entire storm.
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As Bubbles suggested above...whoda ever thunk in early feb we'd be worried about temps w/ an slp progged in a rather favorable placement (as per 6z's)?  Cant say I'd ever have thought it, but without rates, we may be in trouble, so hope for a flush hit, and not fringe stuff.  540's way above us, so we gotta get into the goods to overcome marginal temps.  Ops start to gain traction for 4.5 day lead time, so model watch accordingly. Below graphic tells the tale.

LR guidance just doesnt show much of anything favorable.....not 1 of them (well the MJO is progged to "race" thru less than ideal phases, that'll take 2 weeks). But, with AO/NAO well into ++ territory, not sure there's much to hope for.  EPO?  Dunno, but I'm just not seein much.  Somebody help me find somethin, cause I'm all but checked out for this "winter"-snow wise.  

gfs_T850_eus_19.png

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looking back in my archives/notes........Tuesday January 25th, 2000. Snow, high winds and Blizzard like conditions. 11-12" hard to measure because of wind. Friday January 28th. Bitter cold -15 wind chill. Super Bowl Sunday, January 30th. Snow started about noon, rates increased as day went along, ending around midnight 12". Over 20" on ground from the last 2 storms. 

Was a great Super Bowl Sunday that year :drunk:

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12 hours ago, anotherman said:

I've decided I'm tired of Elliott's gleeful reports on how crappy this winter is.  The guy is giddy about potential 50s and 60s.

 

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m staying out of this… Lol!

@Itstrainingtime will be on here in no time to straighten you guys out!

 

11 hours ago, canderson said:

He needs an editor. His writing is way too verbose imo. 

 

11 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

He has had a good forecasting season.  

 

11 hours ago, anotherman said:


Yes, but he doesn’t have to be so excited about record breaking warmth and lack of snow.

Interesting conversation I missed last night. Everything that was posted were certainly valid thoughts/opinions. I don't have much to add other than I find it "interesting" the number of degreed mets who are NOT fans of cold and snowy winter. I'll speak for myself and say that in the past I've assumed that being a snow hound is what drives people to become mets. Clearly, some are not. Joe Lundberg is another great example - he used to appear on Weather World and I used to hear him on radio stations here in Lanco as well as a regular blogger on Accuweather's site. Without a doubt one of the best that I ever heard...he despised wintry weather and said as much often. 

I have no problem with mets expressing their love/disdain for the type of weather they most or least enjoy. Honestly...when Joe Lundberg went big on snow for this area, that's when I'd get excited. Think about it - would you rather have an admitted snow hound (Bastardi) go all in on an impending snowstorm or would you rather have that come from someone who doesn't like it to begin with?

I'll take the latter for $1000. 

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