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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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Just so you all know, my last post wasn't laughing at your plight. It was directed at the scenario of a 15 degree high on Saturday, followed by rain and 40 on Sunday.

I don't revel in your lack of cold and snow. I wish it were the opposite. Especially since I might be dealing with it again today up in Flagstaff. 

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6 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Midnight reading, and likely high for the day (Tuesday) at MDT looks to be 48 degrees.  The low on Tuesday will likely be at midnight tomorrow night.  It now appears that January 2023 will end with every single day of the month above normal for average temperature.  That's pretty unbelievable!  Did 1932 have every day above normal??  Let's say that the low Tuesday evening is 28 degrees.  That gives a mean temp of 38 degrees, which is around 7 or 8 degrees above normal.  I don't have the numbers, but it would seem that the 31st will bring the monthly mean temp upward roughly +0.2 degrees F.  Is that enough for the #2 slot for warmest January average temp?  It's going to be close.

MDT stands at 39.7 for an average going into today.  If the average raised .2 it would take second place.  Below is 1932 and not every day was above normal....Jan 31 saved it.  Ha.  Of interest also is that Jan 13th came fairly close to having cooling degree days in the month of Jamaury.  1950 (current second place) had 5 days below normal. 

NOWData - NOAA Online Weather Data
1Click for calendar
NOWData - NOAA Online Weather DataEnlarge resultsPrintClose
Climatological Data for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) - January 1932
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Temperature
HDD
CDD
Precipitation
New Snow
Snow Depth
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Departure
1932-01-01 40 32 36.0 3.7 29 0 1.41 0.3 0
1932-01-02 43 36 39.5 7.4 25 0 0.34 0.0 0
1932-01-03 42 39 40.5 8.6 24 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-04 42 36 39.0 7.2 26 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-05 42 36 39.0 7.4 26 0 0.02 0.0 0
1932-01-06 59 39 49.0 17.5 16 0 1.02 0.0 0
1932-01-07 59 37 48.0 16.7 17 0 0.06 0.0 0
1932-01-08 38 34 36.0 4.8 29 0 0.20 T 0
1932-01-09 40 35 37.5 6.4 27 0 0.04 0.0 0
1932-01-10 40 33 36.5 5.5 28 0 T T 0
1932-01-11 39 30 34.5 3.6 30 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-12 51 34 42.5 11.7 22 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-13 72 50 61.0 30.3 4 0 0.04 0.0 0
1932-01-14 73 45 59.0 28.4 6 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-15 64 46 55.0 24.5 10 0 0.01 0.0 0
1932-01-16 46 38 42.0 11.6 23 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-17 50 40 45.0 14.6 20 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-18 52 36 44.0 13.7 21 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-19 42 34 38.0 7.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-20 52 33 42.5 12.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-21 48 41 44.5 14.3 20 0 0.04 T 0
1932-01-22 58 42 50.0 19.8 15 0 T 0.0 0
1932-01-23 52 43 47.5 17.3 17 0 0.35 0.0 0
1932-01-24 54 38 46.0 15.8 19 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-25 41 32 36.5 6.2 28 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-26 44 29 36.5 6.2 28 0 0.07 0.0 0
1932-01-27 44 40 42.0 11.6 23 0 0.07 0.0 0
1932-01-28 47 34 40.5 10.1 24 0 0.00 0.0 0
1932-01-29 49 36 42.5 12.0 22 0 0.21 0.0 0
1932-01-30 55 30 42.5 11.9 22 0 0.12 0.0 0
1932-01-31 30 20 25.0 -5.7
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8 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think most of you know...we all moved over to a discord because we were sick of the mods/admin. micromanaging our discussions. It depends on what area of Upstate. The Buffalo crew thinks this is "one of the best winters ever" while the rest of us are irritated and just fed up with the model promises of better days and then they never come. The Synoptic pattern for Central New York pretty much since I've been here (4 winters now) has been absolutely abysmal. It's either been north of us or it's been south of us (you guys had a good winter, I think two years ago?) We've concluded that the Permaridge over the Atlantic with the boiling waters is causing us lots of issues. That, along with the continuous troughing into the Southwest and the Pacific flow. It's just been ugly, as you all know.

I personally do not go to any other boards other than the MA and occasionally Pitt and a rare stop into OT.   So, I did not realize some of you left though I did notice not seeing your name as much.   I understand the reasoning behind it though. It is part of the story of how the other boards began to fade away including the Usenet groups when neweather became neweather moderated.  

The SW troughing is on our minds a lot.   It works to continue promoting the SE Ridge pushing the tracks too far west for pure snow here.  When we do get a break from the ridge, the track too often does what it is doing this week with the flows totally separating and leaving the MA and Northeast fairly dry.  

At the end of it, it leaves boards like this thriving on talk of anomalous weather records which unfortunately works to set up angst with some people.  Case in point, our near record setting positive anomaly Jan temps have alleviated fears of mass heating oil shortages and people going into debt to pay for home heating (electric and oil.)   A topic that is directly related to weather.  Yet, some (in all forums) will take offense to talk like that because it does not fit the mantra that we should be only talk about (pretend this January) snow and cold.  You mentioned models and the fun model chasing, chasing storms, has really turned sour this year.   

 

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10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No polishing, but I’m just trying to find a way to be positive.

Its easy to just say it’s over because it makes people feel better so they can cope.

I choose not to give up.

Not sure we're giving up, but merely expressing the reality of where we are.  I know i'll never bust your chops for being an optimist, because its a far better approach to life than being a debby.

That also doesnt mean snow lovers cant be a bit less than enthusiastic about the reality of what we've seen so far this year. 

Keep searching pal....we'll jump on your train as soon as we see enough momentum building.  No worries about that. 

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Picked up about an inch overnight.

I will assume I am the "haves" of this subforum and I can promise you, I'm probably nowhere close to 50% up here.

I have seen some bad winters in my time between living in the Ridge and Valley Huntingdon, the Cumberland and Lower Susquehanna valleys, and now whatever you want to call this place I live now, but this one kinda beats all.

I'd probably be raging hourly on Blizz's optimism and calling him a wishcaster at this point if I still lived in Palmyra.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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10 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Just a "little bit" behind here in the Syracuse area. The 4th absolutely pathetic winter for here in the "snowbelt." This one has by far been the worst. They just keep getting crappier.

NYS Seasonal Snow

no like button being hit here pal.  I had friends on "the hill" this weekend, and am waiting for the sled damage assessments to come rollin in.  Theres enough to ride, but with little base....ouch.  Otoh, I always say that w/ sleds, "thats why they call em wear items" (hyfax/carbides etc).  Really feeling for the establishments that rely on winter enthusiasts for their support.  

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9 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think most of you know...we all moved over to a discord because we were sick of the mods/admin. micromanaging our discussions. It depends on what area of Upstate. The Buffalo crew thinks this is "one of the best winters ever" while the rest of us are irritated and just fed up with the model promises of better days and then they never come. The Synoptic pattern for Central New York pretty much since I've been here (4 winters now) has been absolutely abysmal. It's either been north of us or it's been south of us (you guys had a good winter, I think two years ago?) We've concluded that the Permaridge over the Atlantic with the boiling waters is causing us lots of issues. That, along with the continuous troughing into the Southwest and the Pacific flow. It's just been ugly, as you all know.

Bingo....get this man a prize...

Its been a constant of the last few years, and undoubtedly playing a roll in muckin up our flow.  

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28 and overcast here - another wave of low pressure is expected to drop between .25-.50" of ice from noon today through tonight. Ground is white from last night's sleetfest. Temp should not reach 30 until later tomorrow PM at the earliest. 

Was talking to the good folks at the front desk and they were perplexed by the way I was dressed when I went out to clear off the rental car. Lots of good-natured ribbing for the "tough guy in PA" :)  

If they only knew...

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

28 and overcast here - another wave of low pressure is expected to drop between .25-.50" of ice from noon today through tonight. Ground is white from last night's sleetfest. Temp should not reach 30 until later tomorrow PM at the earliest. 

Was talking to the good folks at the front desk and they were perplexed by the way I was dressed when I went out to clear off the rental car. Lots of good-natured ribbing for the "tough guy in PA" :)  

If they only knew...

Nanook of Maytown!  My friends in Florida think I need a snowplow on my SUV to go anywhere in the winter...I guess TV shows set expectations of certain types of people and areas.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Almost looks like your Chevy has a Dodge Ram logo on the hood. 

That's so funny.  When I first looked at the hood (before seeing the Chevy logo on the grill) I also thought it looked like a huge Ram logo.  Then I wondered if I had ever seen a hood with any logo.  Btw, I'm the proud owner of a Ram 2020 Limited in Delmonico Red.  And, it's a Turbo Diesel.  I got a great deal on it last year down in your neck of the woods at Buchanan Auto Park.  I had always wanted a pickup that was loaded and was also a Diesel (but I didn't need/want a Cummins).  I bought it for comfortable driving, etc., although the bed has served me very well more times than I thought I would use it.  Oh, I forgot to mention that it also came with a 33 gallon tank, and gets 31 mpg when all-highway (and not towing anything).

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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

With a departure of +9.98°F through #January30, we’re currently in the #2 spot at @millersvilleu.. 0.04°F ahead of 1998. If the temp remains at or above 33°F through midnight, the departure will be +10°F (double-digit) for only the 3rd time during a winter month (DJF) since 1914!

I am liking your post not because I like it but more liking that you had that info which is good stuff to digest and consider. 

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16 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That's so funny.  When I first looked at the hood (before seeing the Chevy logo on the grill) I also thought it looked like a huge Ram logo.  Then I wondered if I had ever seen a hood with any logo.  Btw, I'm the proud owner of a Ram 2020 Limited in Delmonico Red.  And, it's an Eco Diesel.  I got a great deal on it last year down in your neck of the woods at Buchanan Auto Park.  I had always wanted a pickup that was loaded and was also a Diesel (but I didn't need/want a Cummins).  I bought it for comfortable driving, etc., although the bed has served me very well more times than I thought I would use it.  Oh, I forgot to mention that it also came with a 33 gallon tank, and gets 31 mpg when all-highway (and not towing anything).

Your cool new truck gets a lot better mileage than my small SUV.  I have a fairly powerfully 285HP motor that sucks gas like a Uhaul.  LOL.   That 33 gallon tank is great for not having to get out and gas up when cold out! 

 

 

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Cold air really drills in down south - don't they call these situations "blue northers" or something like that?

Temp here continues to bleed down - it's 25 with the next round of precip about 2-3 hours away. Going to be a fun afternoon/night here. 

Edit: Meh, I just looked up blue norther and it's a term only used by Texans for cold fronts that drop temps rapidly. @canderson good folks don't want Razorbacks stealing their weather terms!

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Cold air really drills in down south - don't they call these situations "blue northers" or something like that?

Temp here continues to bleed down - it's 25 with the next round of precip about 2-3 hours away. Going to be a fun afternoon/night here. 

We seem to so rarely get those types of situations here anymore.  Most of my raining and in the low to mid 20's memories are from long ago. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We seem to so rarely get those types of situations here anymore.  Most of my raining and in the low to mid 20's memories are from long ago. 

Yes, and that's why I'm so impressed. 

It was 37 here when I arrived at noon yesterday. The temp has fallen off 12 degrees over the past 21 hours with no increase...just a very slow but steady drop. Little Rock NWS commented this morning how impressive it is because the cold is overperforming all guidance they had. Sounds like they might extend the warning through Thursday AM as a 3rd round of precip comes in later tomorrow. 

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