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Central PA Winter 2022/2023


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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

looking at intellicast radar, its nice to see blues hangin on below us.  Not saying a big surprise is in order, but as alluded to for the last couple days, ever hour we can hang on will help.

I still think it’s going to snow everywhere in the LSV on the front end, there’s snow being observed all the way into northern VA. Even with surface temps a couple degrees above freezing the column should wet bulb down. Biggest question mark is York/Lancaster and how much can get on the ground if it starts as snow. Think the biggest thing there is if the best rates go north of there initially. Otherwise Harrisburg area looks good for getting to the 2” advisory threshold IMO. The stuff over here started fast and has stayed pretty heavy. 

 

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9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I still think it’s going to snow everywhere in the LSV on the front end, there’s snow being observed all the way into northern VA. Even with surface temps a couple degrees above freezing the column should wet bulb down. Biggest question mark is York/Lancaster and how much can get on the ground if it starts as snow. Think the biggest thing there is if the best rates go north of there initially. Otherwise Harrisburg area looks good for getting to the 2” advisory threshold IMO. The stuff over here started fast and has stayed pretty heavy. 

 

yeah from what I saw on the cams, nothing wasted over your way.  Seeing a couple of the RGEM and GFS runs makes us LSV'r have a smidge of hope that we can keep thermals long enough to get a bit of flakage that sticks as the appreciable precip starts to fall.  

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

I’m a little disappointed at the experienced posters here that were posting models at game time instead of looking at obs & radar. Clearly snow is moving over the LSV. 
 

visibility is Waynesboro is 1/8 mile and it’s ripping. 

Not sure who this is pointed at, but some of us "experienced" ones where showing people how the most recent models were misrepresenting "game time" obs that didnt match.  Obs were also being shared to further prove that point. 

Personally I did that for peeps to use/learn from as we get so hung up on the models.  That is all.  

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Not sure who this is pointed at, but some of us "experienced" ones where showing people how the most recent models were misrepresenting "game time" obs that didnt match.  Obs were also being shared to further prove that point. 

Personally I did that for peeps to use/learn from as we get so hung up on the models.  That is all.  

There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. 

Some people here (me included) enjoy the modelology of the hobby especially using the hourly models such as the HRRR to watch how it plays out. 

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s absolutely an over reliance on modeling, especially in the short range/game time. Crazy how far off the NAM was at initialization vs current radar. Great rates at the moment so if you get under these bands, it’s coming down. Wet bulbed down to 30 degrees as well. 

Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday.

Come on. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday.

Come on. 

Did I say that? What a silly reply. My point is those who say it’s not going to snow or be a shut out when you have obs on your doorstep of SN/SN+ and radar shows a batch moving your way…it’s not going to be a shutout. 

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Using your logic, we're going to get 27" of snow today if we go solely on the fact that it's ripping fatties in Waynesboro. Without modeling, there's no reason to think it will change to rain or stop until sometime on Friday.

Come on. 

Not sure how much he stops in here, but I think most of us regulars try to share a mix of models and logic and try to boil it down (bad terminology I know) that makes reasonable sense, and thats what we share w/ the masses. 

And for the weenie posts, many here know that they are just that, and meant often for fun and not forecasts.  We ARE better than that. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It was "snowing over us" for what seems like an hour or two.  My temp dropped to 30 when it finally broke through. 

I haven’t been on the forum much recently due to picking up a part time job with the school district.  I’m running LIU students around.   My runs starts in Cashtown, goes to Hanover, up to Dover and finally last drop is Hallam exit of 30.   I have the run today since York County schools never closed.  Fun times ahead.  

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