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Winter Banter Thread


Rjay
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Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. 

 

NJ Coast 


NYC/LI/Central NJ 

 

Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast 

 

Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT

 

Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess 

 

Sullivan, Western Ulster 

 

 


 

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Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. 
 
NJ Coast 

NYC/LI/Central NJ 
 
Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast 
 
Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT
 
Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess 
 
Sullivan, Western Ulster 
 
 

 

Morris County?

giphy.gif


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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Looks like Joe Bastardi’s forecast of -5F for temps and 20+ inches of snow for NYC from 3/1 - 4/15 is in some trouble…..

It is. Things are falling apart more and more each day. Only a March 16-April 15, 1956 outcome would produce both the snow and cold he forecasts. In coming days even that won't be enough.

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5 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. 

 

NJ Coast 


NYC/LI/Central NJ 

 

Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast 

 

Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT

 

Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess 

 

Sullivan, Western Ulster 

 

 


 

I wholeheartedly endorse this list. And as much as I love Dons posts, I wish he could take out Philadelphia from the daily updates and any reference to it. Regarding the zones you propose Philadelphia is only relevant to a small portion of zone 2, no others. They have their own forum let them stay there. Maybe substitute HPN for Philadelphia in the temperature references? In the updates it much better serves regions 2-6 than any reference to Philadelphia. 

Just one Eagle hating persons opinion. 

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58 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I wholeheartedly endorse this list. And as much as I love Dons posts, I wish he could take out Philadelphia from the daily updates and any reference to it. Regarding the zones you propose Philadelphia is only relevant to a small portion of zone 2, no others. They have their own forum let them stay there. Maybe substitute HPN for Philadelphia in the temperature references? In the updates it much better serves regions 2-6 than any reference to Philadelphia. 

Just one Eagle hating persons opinion. 

I could go on forever about the different LI climate zones by themselves and what’s favored here vs NYC but I digress lol. 

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6 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Since I’m into climo convos and feel this is more appropriate space to discuss than the storm thread what if we broke down NYC metro into following zones that seem to relatively have similar climo. 

 

NJ Coast 


NYC/LI/Central NJ 

 

Eastern Bergen/Southern/Westchester/CT Coast 

 

Western Bergen, Passaic, Rockland, Northern Westchester/inland SW CT

 

Sussex, Orange, Putnam, Eastern Ulster, Dutchess 

 

Sullivan, Western Ulster 

 

 


 

You know the big problem this would solve, the constant references like "oh boy just saw the Euro we're done".

And I always think who's done? It's a big forum, is Suffolk done Nassau, the Jersey coast, SW CT, Orange Sussex and Putnam, NYC? I dream of a world where we can declare the GFS says we're done for zones 1 & 2, but 5 & 6 get buried.  Rgem just annihilated zones 3 & 4, 5 & 6 not so much. That is my Utopia, a man can dream can't he?

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You know the big problem this would solve, the constant references like "oh boy just saw the Euro we're done".
And I always think who's done? It's a big forum, is Suffolk done Nassau, the Jersey coast, SW CT, Orange Sussex and Putnam, NYC? I dream of a world where we can declare the GFS says we're done for zones 1 & 2, but 5 & 6 get buried.  Rgem just annihilated zones 3 & 4, 5 & 6 not so much. That is my Utopia, a man can dream can't he?

giphy.gif


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With respect to the extreme forecast that March 1-April 15 would see New York City have a temperature anomaly of 5° below normal and 20" of snow, here's where things currently stand as far as temperatures are concerned.

image.png.e065b2a70e6b30958ff3ab5f1d55e06c.png

To achieve the -5.0° anomaly, the temperature would need to average 7.7° below normal from March 16 through April 15. Just 11 years out of New York City's 154-year climate record or 7% of years saw the temperature average 7.7° below the current normal figure for that timeframe. 82% of those years occurred in the 19th century. The last such year was 1956.

To achieve 20" snowfall, New York City would need 19.9" of snow during that period. Only 1956 (23.7") had sufficient snowfall. The second highest figure was 13.9" in 2018. The third highest figure was 13.6" in 1967.

All said, just one year out of New York City's climate record had both the cold and snowfall necessary to verify the extreme forecast. In coming days, the City would need not just a rare outcome, but an unprecedented one for the extreme forecast to verify.

As noted back in February when the extreme forecast was issued, that forecast was never likely to verify. It was detached from New York City's climate and disconnected from the evidence. At that time, none of the long-range guidance (ECWMF weeklies or CFSv2) had anything close to such an outcome. At present, the steep hill for verification has grown into a towering mountain. By the end of this week, that mountain will reach heights that puts its summit out of reach.

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I could go on forever about the different LI climate zones by themselves and what’s favored here vs NYC but I digress lol. 

I acknowledge could have broken it down way more in depth than I did but then we’d have like 10+ different micro climates. I mean literally there’s a bit of a climo shift everytime you go about 5-10 miles further from the ocean and/or a few  hundred feet higher in elevation. 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You know the big problem this would solve, the constant references like "oh boy just saw the Euro we're done".

And I always think who's done? It's a big forum, is Suffolk done Nassau, the Jersey coast, SW CT, Orange Sussex and Putnam, NYC? I dream of a world where we can declare the GFS says we're done for zones 1 & 2, but 5 & 6 get buried.  Rgem just annihilated zones 3 & 4, 5 & 6 not so much. That is my Utopia, a man can dream can't he?

Exactly this would actually be so helpful. 

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