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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8.  It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55.

Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often.  The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area.  Even 474 is extremely impressive.  Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south.  At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up.  If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

sfct-imp.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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15 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Some serious cold in Canada on the 18z GFS around Day 8.  It's impressive enough to see -40 temps, but there's a decent area of -45 to -50 showing up...with even one pixel in NE Alberta at -55.

Of course this is far out and 2m temps aren't exactly modeled well in general...but you don't see a map like this very often.  The extremely rare 468 thickness contour shows up, and it covers a fairly respectable area.  Even 474 is extremely impressive.  Hopefully we'll get to track a real-deal arctic outbreak soon...but of course the question is whether this arctic air will drop south.  At a minimum, seems like a nice temp gradient will set up.  If a big storm results, it should be able to pull the cold air down.

sfct-imp.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

I'm a winter lover and also enjoy following any kind of anomalous weather, but as I get older (just turned 65), I just want that type of cold to keep its a$$ up in Canada. 

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On 1/19/2023 at 5:36 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I was going to let OHweather and Ricky handle the final 1/3rd of January into the start of February with their posts from a few days ago, but I changed my mind. Let's toss some more thoughts into the ring.

As expected, the long awaited pattern change is underway, essentially being kicked off with the current storm system moving through the region. This pattern really isn't one that will be set in stone or locked in place as a whole, with things likely to be ever changing/evolving as we work through this final 1/3rd of January and through the first 1/3rd of February.

Things will start off with what everyone can see being modeled for this weekend and through next week. The lower atmosphere PV axis will be elongated, extending from the Svalbard region to Greenland to the Hudson. There will be a few attempts at a -NAO, but nothing too significant or overpowering as it looks now. Additionally, we will see constant troughing into the Western/Central US, though this trough axis will be displaced east, with a mor eneutral PNA in place. Pac waves will top the -EPO ridge, and then crash into Canada and down into the Western/Central US. It should be noted that this does not look like as signififcant of a -EPO as was seen about a month or so ago. This pattern leads to a continued active time across the CONUS and leads us to the upcoming potential for the weekend and mid next week storm systems, both of which will heavily rely on phasing and wave interaction. Beyond the mid-week storm system there looks to finally be support for a shot at some colder temperatures for a period of time for at least part of the sub-forum, supported by SPV stretching movement and MJO movement.

As we move into the period of the final weekend in January, the shared week of the end of January/beginning of February and the first weekend of February, we will see the pattern continue to evolve. The lower atmosphere PV axis will continue to be elongated from the Svalbard region to Greenland to the Hudson. Any attempts at a -NAO may tend to subside a bit with time, and we will steadily see a transition to a more significant -PNA/Western US trough and a relax of the -EPO. This should allow for a continued active pattern across the CONUS. This will be sort of a gamblers pattern....With cold air nearby finally, Western US/North-Central US trough and some from of SE ridge. Who will end up on the right/wrong side of things will is tbd. The early February portion of this period is still 2 weeks + away, so could expect possibly some changes, especially with how volatile things will be for quite a while...But did want to mention where things may head. The changing teleconnections, evolving MJO and assault on the SPV will make for volatile times in general, from late this month on into February, that's for sure.

All in all things have gone fairly close to expectation for the final 1/3rd of January. The active pattern continued, which finally brought more widespread snow opportunities to much of the sub-forum. We have also seen temperatures trend colder in stages in the wake of the storm system mid last week.

Regarding the current period of the final weekend in January, the shared week of the end of January/beginning of February, and the first weekend of February...The pattern of a relaxing -EPO/-PNA/less -NAO attempts has unfolded, and some aspects have evolved a bit faster than previously depicted when the above quoted post was written nearly two weeks ago. As mention at the time, it would be a gamblers pattern. We obviously had the event this past weekend that some cashed in on quite well and there have been a few minor events to start this week in parts of the Ohio Valley...So the gamble was not a total loss for all, but many left down some some cash.

For this first 1/3rd of February as a whole, we will continue evolution to another pattern. We will once again revert back to a less consistent wintery pattern (And less active for a bit in general), one that features the best chance of snow and cold being across MN/WI/MI, and needing to more rely on threading the needle elsewhere. We will see a combination of a NAO hovering around neutral, a +EPO, the PNA around or just south of neutral, the lower atmospheric PV lobe center shifting north and an MJO expected to transition from phase 3 to 4.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5533600.thumb.png.3f59a6864ee8c9286b0f221a374a9bc2.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5857600.thumb.png.a30d582f0160913cfe4299e34bb83361.png

As we head into the first portion of the middle 1/3rd of February there are some strong signals of wanting to head towards a -EPO/-PNA/big SE ridge pattern. This not only has solid ENS support at this long range, but is also heavily supported by the projected MJO movement as well. However, the one wild card will continue to be the SPV, which continues to be taking hits...and could have hand in altering things in a different way. Still awhile off from this period, so we'll see how it trends with time.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6289600.thumb.png.306cb80f75e237b49e2f265852c6b55b.png

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'd hone in on somewhere in that 15-28th period (And into March). 

Obviously far out, but that's what the early signals are suggesting.

I'm down.  Honestly would like another opportunity or two to use the snowblower that I just got last year.  Only used it once so far.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm down.  Honestly would like another opportunity or two to use the snowblower that I just got last year.  Only used it once so far.

I used mine 3 times so far. Dec 23, Jan 22, Jan 25. Shoveled for the rest. The blower kept clogging on Jan 25 the snow was so dense/wet. Hoping for a good powder to play in.

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We should have some chances in the back 1/2 or 2/3 of Feb. Need to cash in with a warning level event farther south, otherwise chances of challenging 2011-12-like futility will certainly go up. If you're looking for good news, it doesn't currently look torchy on the ensembles around mid month (especially with westward extent) and should be fairly active. We'll see how things trend as we get closer to the possible decent period. Can't sugarcoat things prior to that though.



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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

We should have some chances in the back 1/2 or 2/3 of Feb. Need to cash in with a warning level event farther south, otherwise chances of challenging 2011-12-like futility will certainly go up. If you're looking for good news, it doesn't currently look torchy on the ensembles around mid month (especially with westward extent) and should be fairly active. We'll see how things trend as we get closer to the possible decent period. Can't sugarcoat things prior to that though.


 

It's bad when anybody in Arkansas is outsnowing parts of I-80... and it's not early season anymore.

nohrsc_seasnow.conus.png

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