EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 That’s odd the 32° 2-meter air temp line is 75 miles ahead of the r/s line on the Icon model for 1am on Friday. Lol what? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 That’s odd the 32° 2-meter air temp line is 75 miles ahead of the r/s line on the Icon model for 1am on Friday. Lol what?WAA maybe?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Isn’t the precip shown for the 6 hours before (i e. not a snapshot representation of that specific time). Maybe the temperature map IS at that exact hour? Just guessing here…….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Isn’t the precip shown for the 6 hours before (i e. not a snapshot representation of that specific time). Maybe the temperature map IS at that exact hour? Just guessing here……..It’s definitely the same hour. Couldn’t imagine having to subtract time from it. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 28 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Isn’t the precip shown for the 6 hours before (i e. not a snapshot representation of that specific time). Maybe the temperature map IS at that exact hour? Just guessing here…….. You are right! These maps are very misunderstood and they always make storms look way better Than reality. The precip map is a 3 hr averaged precip map. That's why it's so large of a precip shield when in reality it'll be abt a third that size. the way I understand the Ptype is that it's an average. So if the bulk of it is rain it'll show as rain. 2hrs rain and 1 hr snow gives you a rain result. Gfs maps are even worse because they are 6 hr averaged. Yuck. gfs 6 hr averaged gfs radar at that exact time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 12z CMC has the clipper after the front this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 The clipper on the 27th is back on both the Canadian and Euro at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 The 0z GFS and 0z CMC both have the clipper early next week. Good look and makes since given the cold shot. Most cold shots of this degree have a clipper right on their heals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just digging through 500 vort maps....that is close to partial phase just to our east as the clipper catches energy rising in latitude along the coast. Going to have to watch that carefully. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 The clipper on the 27th looks like it is legit, especially for middle TN. It falls apart as it heads across the forum area which is not uncommon for a feature like that. In NE TN we need clippers on a NW flow vs East/west, especially if modeled as weak as this one is currently. Trend for many clippers is to lift north at the last minute. Many will drop more snow than middles as a little precip goes a long way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 It is at range but the 6z RGEM has a pretty healthy clipper for Tuesday. The NAM does as well, but it will amp everything at that range...so toss until in range. I trust the RGEM a little more at that range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 NYE into NYD looking stormy. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 12z Euro has the clipper. I would prefer it a tad south of our location. It is running the KY/TN border might allow it to tick north out of our forum area as things get closer. Still, it is far more formidable than it was on modeling a few days/runs ago. Something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: NYE into NYD looking stormy. . Would not shock me. With that much warm air in the middle of winter....things could fire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 There are two modes for New Years, I'm in Chattanooga and it snows back home, or I'm in Chattanooga and there's a severe weather event for New Years. There's rarely any middle ground. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 MRX isn't even mentioning the clipper in their latest AFD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Runman292 said: MRX isn't even mentioning the clipper in their latest AFD. Noticed that and just a 20% chance of snowshowers Monday/Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 0z RGEM with the little clipper that could lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 0z RGEM with the little clipper that could lol It's been killing it this fall and early winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 58 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 0z RGEM with the little clipper that could lol Thanks for posting this. If we can keep this from jogging north, this is the old school clipper that used to follow big storms. If real, it wouldn't surprise me to see amounts higher as the ground is frozen and the air mass would support mega ratios. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Looks like the RGEM and to some extent, the UKIE are on board with the clipper. The GFS/NAM remain skeptical. Not sure that isn't what we want to see after they both schooled the American models with the system that just passed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 The ICON seems to get the clipper into the region. Looked good across Kentucky and North Central Tennessee. No maps available on tropical for snowfall for some reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 12z 3k NAM... if you are a snow lover, this hurts. Decent clipper moving over, but virga due to very dry air at the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 12z 3k NAM... if you are a snow lover, this hurts. Decent clipper moving over, but virga due to very dry air at the surface. That's a odd result. PWATs are about the same as they are over Missouri where 3-4 inches falls. The 700mb to below 850 is saturated per the sounding. The dry air is just above the surface up to about 3000 feet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 MRX is now mentioning the clipper, but appears to be brushing it off as a non story. In the upper levels, a potent short wave will move through the region Monday and Monday night. Some snow flurries will be possible mainly in the mountains. The best chance for a light snow shower will be in the northern Cumberland Plateau counties and Lee and Wise counties in Virginia. Little to no accumulation is expected with a dry air mass in place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2022 Author Share Posted December 25, 2022 SWS out of Nashville... ...Accumulating Snowfall Possible Across Mid State on Monday... A quick moving storm system will approach later tonight and move across mid state region on Monday. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected with a possible change to light rain showers across locations around and west of I-65 Corridor during late afternoon hours as temperature rise above freezing. As temperatures lower below freezing again during evening hours on Monday night, isolated snow showers will continue before tapering off from southwest to northeast as evening hours progress. Total snowfall accumulations will range from less than a tenth of an inch southwestern portions of mid state region to around one quarter to around one half of an inch for locations around and north of I-40, especially locations west of I-24. This may cause some additional slick spots here or there on area roadways. However,no significant widespread travel issues are expected as of this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2022 Author Share Posted December 26, 2022 Told ya'll not to sleep on that clipper. WWAs up in eastern Arkansas, west TN, northern MS, and western KY. Nearly every major cold shot for me as a kid had a clipper right behind it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Told ya'll not to sleep on that clipper. WWAs up in eastern Arkansas, west TN, northern MS, and western KY. Nearly every major cold shot for me as a kid had a clipper right behind it.You we’re telling us to not give up on this clipper 4 or 5 days ago. It would be so ETn to have this clipper over perform considering what we were looking at 10 days ago. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2022 Author Share Posted December 26, 2022 Anyone in west TN or middle have clipper observations? I will be interested if the snow is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2022 Author Share Posted December 26, 2022 Looks like Smyrna, Nashville, West Nashville, and. Clarksville are reporting light snow. Not sure that it holds together for NE TN as modeling shows it Fallon apart. Here’s to hoping for some mood flakes though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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