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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry for the stream of consciousness I’m about to unleash… so many thoughts on this.  

It’s not a 970 low in Erie as that front runner blasts to our north.  And if there was a colder thermal profile maybe the low ends up 980 over Ohio and reforms off NJ. Small adjustment. Major difference for ground truth. That still wouldn’t be a HECS here but it’s the difference between all rain and a messy 3-6” snow. 
 

You’re totally correct in the micro.  Im being more macro.  

You’re right but what’s the goal here?  We’re never gonna have a big winter relying on weak boundary waves in a progressive pattern. 2014 was a once in a lifetime luck heater wrt those. That’s never happening again. Our path to a big winter is getting some big storms and those require blocking. 
 

On the one hand it’s a Nina ya. One the other 1914, 1996, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 happened. We can get big snows in a Nina when we get blocking.  So just tossing the opportunity to score big because Nina is wrong Imo. 
 

Im also biased because up here I’m never getting to a respectable winter with a few weak waves. Last year was near median for you and a bottom 10% snow year here!  Some winters you think are pretty good because you got 15” from a few weak waves were the worst up here where a 20” winter is bottom 10%. But we all root for imby so I get it and don’t begrudge you at all!  I’d feel the same in your shoes. 
 

But what’s the goal?  We aren’t breaking out if this cycle of crap with a couple 4” progressive waves.  We’re long overdue for a big winter. I think we’re hunting for different things. 
 

Lastly I’m not kicking a 3-6” snow out of bed. I enjoyed the few snows I got last year. I will again.  But nothings eminent so…. But if we keep wasting -4 stdv blocks we’re in trouble in a larger snow climo sense. 

Yeah the goal here is different. Give me a few solid snow events and I'm good. I'll chase. If/when we get persistent blocking in a mod Nino, I will have higher expectations.

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Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here.  Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle.

These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes.  The fly shuts in Saskatchewan  and everything changes is 20 years too old. 

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20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Stayed away for two days because sensed a switch from coastal to cutter would show up and now it’s here.  Barbell highs to west and east and low cutting up the middle.

These depictions are not forecasting tools, they are examples of all possible outcomes.  The fly shuts in Saskatchewan  and everything changes is 20 years too old.

What gets me is after we only have two days of cold and now warms up to the lower forties but all we've been hearing about was an extended deep freeze

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