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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. B)

Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from.  Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases:

1. Progressive bias for GFS

2. over amplified bias for Euro

3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM 

 

Hypothetically given these known biases wouldn’t the GGEM be the best model for this setup for the general progression? 

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. B)

Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? 

I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO.

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8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from.  Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. 

Things looking good moving into Jan.  PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active.   Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month.  EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds.  

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm.
 

Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check.

-NAO in Baffin Island region? Check.

-AO? —-AO!

+PNA with inland ridge axis? Check.

Big shortwave diving south? Check.

 

8EF4A558-BCC6-4AFB-8DFA-FF0AFF67FDC1.png

Oooooo! I want to play too!!
 

Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. :lol:

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? 

I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO.

Some advertised relaxation in the -EPO/WPO yes, but at the same time the PNA is going positive. Still an overall favorable look at day 15, and ofc that's way out there so we just can't know.

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

Things looking good moving into Jan.  PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active.   Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month.  EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds.  

As other have noted this morn...it really does look ripe for a major storm.  I would love to start tracking something legit .

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15 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That was an amazing period ushered in by that nifty squall along the Arctic front on Feb. 14!

But there was another period that was pretty decent, too...Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010? :lol:

(ETA:  I joke a bit of course, because everyone knows about 2009-10.  But in all seriousness you're right about us being streaky AF here, or so it seems.  Even that record-breaking 2009-10 winter was streaky:  amazing December that started early and then the HECS...followed by kind of "meh" late December through much of January...followed by that amazing 12 days from end of January into mid-February.)

I missed adding 2015 in that edit. Lol. 09-10 is the big dog grandaddy but there was a ton of dead space that winter even with obscene totals. Dec storm was almost written off 72 hours out. It wasn't a long track like the first Feb storm or Jan 2016.  Jan was rather frustrating until the lucky last minute north trend. From a tracking perspective I don't remember 09-10 being busy like the 13-15 stretch. Or Feb/Mar 2003. Those periods are what enthusiasts really thrive in.

Multiple threat threads for events with different synoptics is what I define as a heater. It's subjective of course. 13-15 stretch taught us a lot. We can snow from nearly any angle or setup that has a chance.... as long as a difficult to move cold dome is centered close by even if it's running away. Nobody can ever convince me that precip comes before cold because in my yard it certainly does not and when it accidentally does, it's gone before my coffee

Eta: once the artic front clears our area, it keeps the door open for some chances. Not none or one and done imo. If hl blocking follows a typical progression with a relax and reload it could crack the door open on a heater period with different setups or even a hostile west track dump. This is what I'm really focused on and why I have little to say leading into the first real cold. 

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I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nino's so not elite but good company in general

 

post-2035-0-76131700-1415462171_thumb.jpg

Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before 

post-2035-0-36987400-1413560411_thumb.jpgpost-2035-0-39538100-1413560473_thumb.jpg

Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol

 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nina's so not elite but good company in general

 

post-2035-0-76131700-1415462171_thumb.jpg

Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before 

post-2035-0-36987400-1413560411_thumb.jpgpost-2035-0-39538100-1413560473_thumb.jpg

Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol

 

Nice comparison. Next week we follow the same general idea. Deeply negative - AO peaks shortly, maybe -4.25,  then moves slowly  back towards neutral next week.  

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Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

 

Not surprising this came on quick. HM has said in the past that PNA and EPO forecasting beyond D7 isn't as reliable as the AO/NAO. 

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22 minutes ago, frd said:

Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. 

An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. 

Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. 

An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. 

Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol

If I'm reading this correctly, is it reasonable to say we shouldn't have any real hopes for a significant snow event out of this potential for next week? If so, what type of trend for this potential should I be pulling for on the models in the coming days that you would say would lead to the most realistic shot of any type of accumulating snow, for the period around next Friday?

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

"that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?"

General: "we have to have precip first, son.  Now tell me how we can shoot it if it has sinister intentions."

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