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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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23 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges.

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Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits.

We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years. 

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10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Show all possible outcomes and claim verification 7 days later when one hits.

We have discussed this hunt and peck for Years. 

5 days and in achieves the best utility, 7 days+ is just always all over the place depicting 25 degree temps swings with each 6 hour new release.  Need a better boat. 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Still differences in the PNA domain between EPS and GEFS.  This isn't based on anything shown on today's models, but I still think it's going to take until closer to the end of the month for the Pacific to improve given the Nina base state.

WB 12z GEFS gets the PNA neutral the week before Christmas….finally.

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Funnily enough, the EPS keeps the central area of our subforum near normal temperature-wise for the next 10 days.. Culprit is probably the consistent storminess being caught under the block, so after our brief warmup (+3-4F for the next 5 days), things look to cool down a bit from D5-D10. 

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EPS +0-1F, GEFS +2-3F. All eyes are on the pattern after this timeframe, but definitely not a "torch" look as we head towards mid-month, despite poor airmass quality. 

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The end of the EPS run again with an Aleutian low getting into a nice position.  Impressive HB.  Follows pretty well what the weeklies showed for week 3.

I haven’t looked at any guidance this weekend besides charts that have been posted here, but I want to see the Pac pattern easing get to D8-9. Seems like based on what people have posted, we’re on the hairy edge of that? Hopefully it holds through Tuesday-Wednesday. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I haven’t looked at any guidance this weekend besides charts that have been posted here, but I want to see the Pac pattern easing get to D8-9. Seems like based on what people have posted, we’re on the hairy edge of that? Hopefully it holds through Tuesday-Wednesday. 

Still D10ish away on the eps. By D13 things really start looking nice.

But, I agree...A change in the PAC is still a figment of LR modeling imagination.

D13

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44 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Hello happy hour GFS…64FCF30F-B05A-44FE-994A-F90D39DCE33F.thumb.png.6770b95b872844bdb8ad544f4e50b723.png

ETA obviously this is a day 10+ op run so the usual caveats apply. But it is nice to see how the pattern evolves, with the Dec 9/10 and 12-13 storms(?) blowing up off the coast and helping to drag in the cold air!

992 LP that appears to be trying to close off and go neg tilt (hard to tell on my smallish screen).  What's that saying some quote about LPs going negative before they pass eastern TN?  

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