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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


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7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For ease of reference, I've included the AO/PNA charts for 4"+ snowstorms for Baltimore for December, January, and February here.

image.jpeg.0bd21128c439ea25f3a88dc87fd176c5.jpeg

image.jpeg.1433c2a82354e595b1e3320c9b938123.jpeg

image.jpeg.dc2fe78f4f730db84055e137afbccc01.jpeg

 

 

  Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December.  Also, the importance of a + PNA in  Jan and Feb too,  thanks for doing this Don ! 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

 

  Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December.  Also, the importance of a + PNA in  Jan and Feb too,  thanks for doing this Don ! 

 

 

Agreed, and it’s much easier to get a good snowfall out of a -pna in Jan/Feb than it is in December. It’s just not cold enough yet 

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20 minutes ago, frd said:

 

  Remarkable seeing how important a + PNA is during the month of December.  Also, the importance of a + PNA in  Jan and Feb too,  thanks for doing this Don ! 

 

 

Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo!

Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96?

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo!

Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96?

super positive.. #2 on record. 95-96 was after 6 straight +ENSO years 90-95 (record of this century +streak, also 89-90 and 96-97 were both -Neutral, but we didn't go La Nina 8/9 years (95-96 the exception) 89-98, which is also the longest streak of the last 200 years). After we were most negative ENSO 70-76, 76,77, 77-78, 78-79 were the coldest Winter's on record. 78-79 still ranks as #1. 

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44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

SISmhWrgCN.png.4ef44dffcd61fb7f03dfa27ac5a7cd1e.png

Didn't you have 90" of snow those years? (I wasn't here)

mjmgHpb4Vo.png.0674cb575e00157a593ac9fba259bb96.png

I was up in PA in 2014. We did good but not as good as down here. I was here in 2015 and got like 55”.
 

The mean of 2 full winter composites hides important details.  
look at the h5 from the 2 good January snows in 2014

17257D3B-A952-41DB-A7B2-7F80A442D8FD.gif.6efa7b55faa748143e3a3726f5b3f877.gifF7E859AD-5667-4544-BDDE-4450340843E6.gif.8a732af5ca1e302747a8be0725739bd5.gif

That look is washed out on the mean. The AO domain h5 pattern is pretty darn good there. 
 

Now look at the Feb and March snow periods 

AC3003DE-0F48-4F49-99EB-5B7F5D6F04DD.gif.a835bacaa08af8b50a31a94a86d4b6c5.gifAC2826C5-F2E5-4EED-8999-F4AE3A91D103.gif.be54a2f873c4085311590026537a2e14.gif

The pattern was breaking down some for the Feb storm but there was cold established, a lot of snow over across the north, and the AO isn’t awful. There is no consolidated raging TPV over the pole.  March the TPV is displaced and suppressing the flow for us. I don’t consider any of those looks ++AO in a practical sense as it impacts our pattern.  
2015 there was a monster full latitude EPO PNa ridge displacing and elongating the TPV.  
 

1993 all the snow came in one storm in March from a triple phased bomb.  That’s an anomaly and not a good way to try to reliably get snow

 

1994 our area did god awful wrt snow given how cold it was and the pac pattern. So again I don’t think it’s a good example of what you’re implying.   

If we have some truly god awful AO state like Jan-Feb 2020 for instance, the PNA alone wouldn’t save us. 

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Strange, I would have thought the PNA would be more positive. Looks more neutral/weak + when the big one happened

The h5 pattern was actually degrading by the time that storm happened. But the pna and NAO combo earlier set the stage. We got lucky that a healthy enough stj wave (in a Nina no less) but not too strong that it would try to amplify too soon, came along with a healthy arctic airmass in place and bombed at the right time. The blocking really had relaxed by then and the pna was only ehh. But there was still a lingering 50/50, a arctic air mass, and a nice wave and it all came together. 

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5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, I'm still learning the colors here, but...If I ak reading this correctly, the end of the Euro looked pretty good to me :lol: (is it accurate to say the PNA improves that week and is neutral/slightly positive here?

ec-fast_z500a_namer_1.thumb.png.202deac764876e8a4cf1ec88a41b92b5.png

The PNA domain is centered over the west coast.  A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east.  This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska.

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Things don't look great in the mid range... And now I would not trust anything in the long range. Depressing to have models miss on what looked pretty consistent. I mean, it is guidance and weather is not something easy to predict. In the mid Atlantic the main prediction should be that it will probably not work out favorably. :(

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS temp anomalies in the last 5 days of run compared to GEFS, toss the GFS.

819EF0DC-6AD4-4BF8-AF7B-A27B33C9A021.png

8F69977F-43C4-4D7F-88A0-3E028E0B99FB.png

 

This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs 

We will know in a couple weeks if the GFS is the model that has the best handle on this pattern.  If there is no cold air by the 15-20th timeframe it becomes Torch King or December Destroyer….

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The PNA domain is centered over the west coast.  A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east.  This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska.

I just realized I shared the wrong image. I meant this one:

ecmwf_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.b52f552db75f832b0c977d1fa1c5f65e.png

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27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

This for whatever reason has been a consistent theme by the GFS the last week...its not unusual as we know to see big differences but its consistently been a torchy Op and cold ensemble on 90% plus of runs 

Insert standard "Trust the warmest model" joke that's not really a joke.

Normally I would ignore long range op compared to ens, but maybe the higher resolution of the op is allowing it to "see" the super persistent PNA more accurately.

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