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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Kind of dried it up..  if it is not going to snow, fine with me. Things look different this run.

 

The GFS simply can't resolve the battle between the Nina tendency of a -PNA, and a developing -NAO at this range. There will be some wild stuff from run to run that will change on a dime. The solutions will be all over the place. GEFS will be a little steadier, but the majority of members seem to cluster around the deterministic solution from each cycle. Not too helpful in reducing the uncertainty.

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Nevertheless... its a frozen event for most Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.  Unfortunately it's mainly sleet and freezing rain, but we all will take what we can get

ETA -- Pivotal suggests N MD near the M/D line sees some decent snow with a BRUTAL cutoff... 0" for me, 3" in DC... 8" in BWI FWIW

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Just now, Chris78 said:

It will change in 6 hours but we could get on the board with a slop fest if the High hangs on long enough. 

 

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too.  We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week.  Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

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9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Not so fast

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath.  It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too.  We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week.  Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. :lol:

 

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. :lol:

 

I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.  :lol:

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. :lol:

 

Yeah, that usually is the case irt model's adjusting to the block. However, PNA so neg, don't know about it this time. 

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I know it's kind of silly analyzing 9 days out but I recall someone saying on here that alot of times things adjust south in the Med/short range during these robust blocking events.

I think it's in the weenie handbook somewhere. :lol:

 

My post just above this one is suggestive of exactly this, but largely because of the conflicting signals.(-PNA teleconnects to eastern ridge, -NAO to eastern trough)

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Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

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3 hours ago, frd said:

We were debating last year, and other years as well, what is the most important tele for our area  ?

For snow I think the - AO,  but many feel you need a decent Pac.  I remember many times when we had a very strong West based block, but the Pac was awful and we never cashed in. Again like you said, it is a Nina, so to be expected.  I will believe the snow potential after I measure it on my deck.  I am hopeful, but with a fair degree of skepticism.    Maybe the pattern requires more time to establish itself.  

 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

-AO. It fundamentally increases the chances that cold air masses can (frequently) move from the high latitude source regions and migrate into the midlatitudes. That is how it increases snow chances- we need the cold. A -EPO can also bring cold, but can also tend to be on the dry side and absent a -AO/NAO, the pattern is more progressive with lots of variability in storm tracks. We have to then consider the other indices, such as ENSO state and PNA phase, along with climo, to determine how much our snow chances are increased.

Problem is we’re too far south to survive any one major factor being awful. I agree the AO is the most important but it can be ruined if other things are in a bad way. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah it didn't "dry up" but not a chance that's how this goes down. At this point it is stuck between a cutter and something tracking underneath.  It can't fully determine the impact of the NA block yet, the strength/position of which will counter the -PNA to some degree. The wave interactions are complex and not resolvable at this juncture.

It’s a different wave. 

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25 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

I don’t mind a delay by 1-2 weeks…gets us closer to prime climo.  That, and I’m at Deep Creek week between Christmas and New Years. :P 

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42 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Excellent thread on the PNA and why it is more negative next week than originally forecasted. Eric states the - PNA next week is just a slight roadblock to that better pattern the evolves later.  He feels the best pattern for snow arrives closer to the holidays.   

 

 

Nah I don't want it going to far into Christmas week yo...don't let some big threat show up Christmas or boxing day again, lol

Man I don't know what it is about that part of the calendar...but what December snow we have gotten in our history has almost never fallen there (what happened my birth year may have been the most with a few inches, lol) So...I'd prefer before the 25th :lol:

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