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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare.

Come on man...we're not losing anything based on a single ensemble run.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Come on man...we're not losing anything based on a single ensemble run.

5 or 6 straight runs post dec 7 it is weaker. Again, just something to monitor, not the end times 

Eta: and it may not even make a huge difference tbh as the ser already is getting beat down by that time. Matter of how quickly it flexes again

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Dec 12-13 window looking good on the 12z GEFS.

Yep. I was just going to add this. The whole ser linkage thing is likely temporary if it even happens at all. It is always a balancing acting with pieces in motion. The more stable look is up top at HL as has been discussed ad nauseum. So i hope nobody took my ppst as being negative whatsoever. Again, a balancing act as always. Some features will flex and be transient, others will be more stable. I as well as many have a rather optimistic outlook on what may happen moving forward.

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It doesn't mean it's right, but as I said yesterday (?) the EPS has been rock-solid for days now with the RELOADED pattern while the GEFS has bounced between very similar-to-the-EPS looks and bigger -PNA looks.  I don't see any reason to switch off the EPS at this point.  

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

for the 80th time in a row...the freaking south is going to see snow first before we do

Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? :yikes:

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? :yikes:

the third storm will actually be the first storm of the christmas torch pattern

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17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Southern slider first, congrats Raleigh. Second storm cuts north of us, congrats Chowdahheads. Maybe we get the third storm before the big Xmas torch?? :yikes:

It’ll be quite a chuckle fest around here if it goes down like that 

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

The tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth would be enough to make the Reaper blush!

I can’t believe that slight risk of heavy snow prog this far out.  That is something rarely seen I would imagine.  We may be on the cusp of something memorable 

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5 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

Just praying the pattern holds for the Xmas season and New Years. So tired of the Christmas torch. 

I’ll never forget Dev 2009.  Enough snow for 2 winters…come Xmas day it was warm and rainy…almost wasn’t a white Xmas if memory serves. We are champions snow melters in the MA

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EPS has had the TPV trend more northwest in its position which allows for stronger SE ridge to take place at least initially before it breaks down as the block retrogrades towards the Baffin Bay. Doubt this would mean/affect anything, but maybe we hold onto the SER for a bit longer before it gets suppressed. Pattern still looks really good after block enters Baffin Bay, and we won't really have to worry about that. Just some food for thought, still going to enter a great pattern soon

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