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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Not to nitpick but aren’t 50-50 lows traditionally at…50N-50W? My geography may be off but I’m not sure how helpful a 60-60 low would be for us…

when dt woofs no worries where the 50-50 is. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

did musk kick you off twitter lol?

yes

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A bit too far south- snows on NC- but guidance continues to flash the potential around the 12th now. This might not be a big dog, for those who are hunting that sort of thing, but looking like a window for possibly a solid event. Starting to see some wild runs now and more to come. Fun times(for a change) in Dec.

1670824800-4ycBMogjwyE.png

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

A bit too far south- snows on NC- but guidance continues to flash the potential around the 12th now. This might not be a big dog, for those who are hunting that sort of thing, but looking like a window for possibly a solid event. Starting to see some wild runs now and more to come. Fun times(for a change) in Dec.

1670824800-4ycBMogjwyE.png

Jeebus, a 562 anomaly west-based -NAO.  :weenie:

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1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

DT is woofing :ph34r:

F0A59ACC-C17C-4D59-9C1E-0F509A0EE781.jpeg

Oh it’s the season…..that time of year when DT breaks out the colored pencils. Also, one of his better jumbled up “art pieces” he has posted. He actually colored inside the lines this time. But we all know his snow maps are coming shortly and we will be struggling to decipher/crack the code and/or solve the equation to figure out what zone we are in.

FAACC49E-9F40-44D9-AB8A-B9E7239A192F.png

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z GFS is a total :weenie: tease after Dec 5 

Textbook definition of a true west based block from around hour 160 through 342. Thing of beauty with the TPV vortices just shedding off and rotating underneath. Nowhere to go. I tried making an animated gif on WB but no idea how to save it lol.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A bit too far south- snows on NC- but guidance continues to flash the potential around the 12th now. This might not be a big dog, for those who are hunting that sort of thing, but looking like a window for possibly a solid event. Starting to see some wild runs now and more to come. Fun times(for a change) in Dec.

1670824800-4ycBMogjwyE.png

 

Wow, that Greenland block is changing the entire waveguide up North.  Incredible ! 

According to @burgwx the delayed effect of the block puts the highest risk for a major snowstorm between the 15 th and the 20 th.  I would like an appetizer and then the Big dog .   Woof !!!

 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

It's radical. These kind of looks were seemingly extinct. This shiz needs to verify.

Yo this is like a team that loses a lot actually gets up by 3 or 4 TDs...but you KNOW that they find ways to screw up, and it's in a stadium (Nina-Jet Stadium) You wanna be excited and optimistic, but yet you know you're team is capable of messing up even that. If this is the best December blocking and we wasted it (which we are capable of), it would be like that kind of team. Guarded optimism since there are other pieces to the puzzle...

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Textbook definition of a true west based block from around hour 160 through 342. Thing of beauty with the TPV vortices just shedding off and rotating underneath. Nowhere to go. I tried making an animated gif on WB but no idea how to save it lol.

Could we run the GFS past 384 just once?

 

Last frame of GFS vort 500.png

Last frame of GFS surface P-type.png

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I have been honing in on the many different people that have been honing in on something happening in December. 

I have heard:

  • The 7th - 10th
  • the 10th through the 12th
  • the 15th through the 20th

I MEAN COME ON! There is no window of opportunity here.. the windows have been removed and replaced with French doors that have been left wide open at this point.

I gather a pattern with a lot of potential so models will be jumping like crazy. Any time I see strong Negative NAOs, and we have Nina, southern sliding disappointment always stays in the back of my mind. Too early to worry about details.

 

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23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yo this is like a team that loses a lot actually gets up by 3 or 4 TDs...but you KNOW that they find ways to screw it up, and it's in a stadium (Nina-Jet Stadium) You wanna be excited and optimistic, but yet you know you're team is capable of messing up even that. If this is the best December blocking and we wasted it (which we are capable of), it would be like that kind of team. Guarded optimism since there are other pieces to the puzzle...

Hey as one who has endured a litany of Cleveland sports agony, I endorse this sentiment! :lol: The drive, the fumble, the Jordan shot at the buzzer, two World Series losses in extra innings of game 7!

But you do get the occasional bright spots (2016 NBA championship in an exciting game 7)!

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