December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[clskinsfan]

29 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years.

Going all in on his  2" of snow call for DC this winter. 

I actually like watching Doug. He is more entertaining than most of the TV weather folks. I liked Lauren as well. Shame she left. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll take this look leading up to Xmas. I mean, I'd roll with it anytime between now and March.

 

Christmas snow has real potential this year, and even beyond as a -EPO regime likely begins later in December. Could be a very interesting period prior to Christmas and leading into the New Year.   As Eric mentions,  this was Anthony's call from mid November. There is also significant clustering from the EPS ( from BAMWX ) today that shows the potential for a very cold and active weather pattern in the East beyond the middle of December.     

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is it wrong that I’m pulling for the toaster scenario? Just asking for a guy that’s still working outside.

Yes.

[Chris78]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I actually like watching Doug. He is more entertaining than most of the TV weather folks. I liked Lauren as well. Shame she left. 

He is and he was pretty funny when he was just on at 6.

 I just found his Winter forecast rather extreme.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Toss the 384 hour OP GFS. Ensembles still showing the big -NAO coming, just a matter of when. If there is one thing that I am afraid of it’s suppression, but we have a good shot at a big one. Keep fingers crossed and roll the dice well. 

[frd]

 

 

If the AO can achieve - 3 during this coming December it would really mean a lot towards a favorable winter pattern with increased odds of snowfall and cold in the East. The last four days the trends have been increasingly negative.     

 

 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

If the AO can achieve - 3 during this coming December it would really mean a lot towards a favorable winter pattern with increased odds of snowfall and cold in the East. The last four days the trends have been increasingly negative.     

 

 

When you say negative, do you mean @JI has become increasingly negative…or is that just the AO? Asking for a few winter weather geek friends on AmericanWX.  

Love the trends! Let’s keep this look long enough to cash in over and over and over. Fingers crossed.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Christmas snow has real potential this year, and even beyond as a -EPO regime likely begins later in December. Could be a very interesting period prior to Christmas and leading into the New Year.   As Eric mentions,  this was Anthony's call from mid November. There is also significant clustering from the EPS ( from BAMWX ) today that shows the potential for a very cold and active weather pattern in the East beyond the middle of December.     

 

 

 

 

Check out the amplitude of the EPO ridge at the very end of the GEFSX run. In conjunction with the -AO/NAO. That trifecta is pretty rare, and maybe a meteorologically impossible occurrence according to at least one on this site. @psuhoffman

[BristowWx]

^what kind of weather would that pattern give us?  Cold certainly… but dry?  

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

When you say negative, do you mean @JI has become increasingly negative…or is that just the AO? Asking for a few winter weather geek friends on AmericanWX.  

Love the trends! Let’s keep this look long enough to cash in over and over and over. Fingers crossed.

Well, the I believe the JI emotioanl equation is        ( negative   Ji )  +  (  JI  loves snow )  + ( - AO )  + ( - NAO ) + ( - EPO ) = Happy JI     

[frd]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Check out the amplitude of the EPO ridge at the very end of the GEFSX run. In conjunction with the -AO/NAO. That trifecta is pretty rare, and maybe a meteorologically impossible occurrence according to at least one on this site. @psuhoffman

Well, the cold and storm trifecta you refer to there is actually a possibility based on the evolution of the modeling, but it is only modeling, so......

The - EPO regime should return, the AO is forecast to stay mostly negative, the - NAO may be reinfoirced with wave breaking, the zonal winds are forecast to remain weak or go weaker, the PV is disturbed , and I believe you need low zonal winds to foster a prolonged - NAO period. That is one crazy look.    

 

 

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Is it wrong that I’m pulling for the toaster scenario? Just asking for a guy that’s still working outside.

Yes, yes it is

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ask him how much rain he's expecting tomorrow and see if he's right

His best quote ever is when he declared that Sandy would not affect the mid Atlantic. That didn’t play out too well.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

^what kind of weather would that pattern give us?  Cold certainly… but dry?  

A ton of snow for coastal DE. Dry at BWI.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A ton of snow for coastal DE. Dry at BWI.

Excellent Smithers…Excellent

[WxUSAF]

Fantastic thread here on ensemble clusters for the upcoming pattern

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years.

Going all in on his  2" of snow call for DC this winter. 

There's a reason he didnt get his contract renewed in Philly.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's a reason he didnt get his contract renewed in Philly.

ship him to JAX…track frost advisories and severe t-storms 

[nj2va]

52 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

If the AO can achieve - 3 during this coming December it would really mean a lot towards a favorable winter pattern with increased odds of snowfall and cold in the East. The last four days the trends have been increasingly negative.     

 

 

I'm sure its been posted here somewhere, but I'd love to see stats on -AO in early winter and their staying power throughout the season.  I thought I read somewhere that typically -AO/-NAO early in winter have staying power/consistency vs a one and done type pattern.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Fantastic thread here on ensemble clusters for the upcoming pattern

 

 

Wow that was awesome !

I know he is a master of using ensemble clustering.  He has tons of data where he can compare current modeling to past ensemble clusters.   

 

 

[bigtenfan]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land.

Thanks so much for the quick answer

[frd]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm sure its been posted here somewhere, but I'd love to see stats on -AO in early winter and their staying power throughout the season.  I thought I read somewhere that typically -AO/-NAO early in winter have staying power/consistency vs a one and done type pattern.

There certainly is a connection, just need to find the research.  I have read that a  - 3 AO in December, or possibly earlier, tend to get repeated during the winter.   

If a - NAO episode is involved as well it raises the bar for our area and the low lands.  

[CAPE]

Front end of the window for an uncomplicated modest wave riding along the boundary just to our south imo. This may not a big deal(or could be nothing), but a chance of flakes falling to maybe a couple inch type deal. A bigger ticket potential lies few days beyond this, maybe as soon as the 13th.

[WxUSAF]

^that looks a lot like the 12z GGEM and euro

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

A ton of snow for coastal DE. Dry at BWI.

You just want to go to Dogfish Head Brewery in the snow again, don't you Squidward? 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Check out the amplitude of the EPO ridge at the very end of the GEFSX run. In conjunction with the -AO/NAO. That trifecta is pretty rare, and maybe a meteorologically impossible occurrence according to at least one on this site. @psuhoffman

?

[Round Hill WX]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's a reason he didnt get his contract renewed in Philly.

Not sure what you alluding to. Doug was at NBC10 and was getting poached by CBS3 near the end of his contract. NBC10 attempted to renew him but negotiations failed. He went to CBS3 and NBC10 enforced the “no compete” clause which kept him from joining CBS3 for 6 months. That doesn’t happen if the “contract isn’t renewed.”

When his CBS3 contract expired he came home to WRC when Bob Ryan retired. 

[cbmclean]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

?

I think you had a debate AGAINST that guy that said the EPO/AO/NAO combo was physically impossible, so I think that is what CAPE is referring to.

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Not sure what you alluding to. Doug was at NBC10 and was getting poached by CBS3 near the end of his contract. NBC10 attempted to renew him but negotiations failed. He went to CBS3 and NBC10 enforced the “no compete” clause which kept him from joining CBS3 for 6 months. That doesn’t happen if the “contract isn’t renewed.”

When his CBS3 contract expired he came home to WRC when Bob Ryan retired. 

Your mention of Bob Ryan made me a bit nostalgic . Anyone remember Gordon Barnes?  Felt like he was a radio meteorologist in the 80's.  Remember clearly listening to him forecast a storm 3 days in advance..."30% chance of snow" we ended up with 11" of powder.  No knock on Gordon...just a sign of the times. Play it safe until its not safe. lol 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I think you had a debate AGAINST that guy that said the EPO/AO/NAO combo was physically impossible, so I think that is what CAPE is referring to.

That’s possible. It’s hard to remember all the stupid I’ve argued with over the years. Trying to just ignore more now.