Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But isn't it even more than just blocking with Ninas? I thought another reason were also problematic because of having little to no STJ...and more NS interference. That element isn't as problematic in Niños, is it?

Also, I'm still trying to visualize how 1995-96 worked...was the blocking so strong it forced everything under us, or?

Extreme blocking can help with slowing things down and mitigate some of that. It can’t, however, juice up the STJ.  But we can get legit snowstorms out of the weaker STJ waves or a hybrid NS system in a Nina. 1996 was a lot of things. The northern pacific didn’t behave like a Nina much of that wither. The stj was more active than normal.  The blocking. And I think some was just change. We got lucky and hit on almost every threat.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS is not the GFS toaster oven…

Interesting that the EPS and GEFS now have the PNA nearing neutral around the 13th. Perhaps that could be an early storm signal with some brief west coast ridging?

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-pna-box-9723200.thumb.png.eb3acabab4eb4c752774484270b614fb.png

Alongside -EPO, and AO/NAO relaxing from their -3SD minimums. Probably too early into the pattern's progression, but worth noting. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-precip_24hr_inch-0976000.thumb.png.1b46c0ecbb6e71b4aaaf2ea877170012.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bigtenfan said:

At what point does this projected pattern  stop being a question of  Lucy picking  up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days?

The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years.

Going all in on his  2" of snow call for DC this winter. :lol:

One thing I hate is a guy like this making that call…he has no idea if it will rain or not next week let alone 3 weeks from now…and not seeing the upcoming potential just to double down on 2 inches of snow because he made that call a month ago…he has no clue what will happen…no one does…he’s a turd sandwich 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If these looks up top end up verifying it is going to be a pretty big coup for mid-long range modelling. We were talking about this possibility almost two weeks ago now. And the look has actually gotten better since then. I would like to see a little more ridging on the west coast. And I wouldnt mind the can getting kicked down the road a couple of weeks. It would help you guys on the coastal plain a ton IF something does pop off. It is just so much better to be tracking a legit pattern instead of the garbage we have been tracking early in the past couple of winters. Hell, I think I jumped last year around New Years. The writing was on the wall. At least we have a possible game to play. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BristowWx said:

One thing I hate is a guy like this making that call…he has no idea if it will rain or not next week let alone 3 weeks from now…and not seeing the upcoming potential just to double down on 2 inches of snow because he made that call a month ago…he has no clue what will happen…no one does…he’s a turd sandwich 

I thought his snowfall forecast was pretty extreme. Could it happen... sure. Will it likely happen? Who knows. His winter forecast was for 4" to 10" all the way west past Hagerstown.

That would be one of the lowest snowfall winters all time for Hagerstown. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...