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December 2022


dmillz25
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On 11/27/2022 at 11:49 AM, LibertyBell said:

The timing here is a lot better than it was in 2018.

Once past February it's extremely difficult for urban areas to get extreme snowfall totals.

 

Yep. You get March 2018 type blocking in mid to late December and you have massive potential. March 2018 a month earlier and everybody would have been buried instead of the white rain garbage a lot of urban areas got.

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14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought NYC did good I'm 2018. At least 2 6 plus events. Maybe I am mistaken.

A lot of that was white rain. Good snowfall numbers but visually it was mostly wet even in the colder spots in Queens where I live. The potential for something much greater in the immediate metro was so close but just a month too late. Areas outside the city got historic totals.

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I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

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3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Found this. Yeah I see the hole around NYC.

image.thumb.png.fbd95be1cd10e407f4a44405ddad4478.png

 

Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+). 

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22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember 2010 progression with a cutter that made the dome collapse in Minnesota.

Was chilly all month.

Then finally boxing day came around.

Results were epic till Feb 1, then more snow with the snow to rain in Feb and the overrunning event in March that produced 4 to 6 across the area.

Snow in all 4 months.

Let's see how much success is realized this time (conscious that this blocking is not as strong as 2010 so results may vary).

I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5. 

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With an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern forecast to predominate during at least the first 1-2 weeks of December, the guidance has evolved toward a higher probability of cold anomalies in eastern North America. There are two clusters of monthly outcomes (1950-2021) when the EPO, AO, and PNA all averaged < 0 during December. Those two clusters account for 75% of December EPO-/AO-/PNA- cases. The CFSv2 currently favors the first idea. The second would feature even more widespread cold in the CONUS. Both scenarios feature widespread cold in Europe. It should be noted that teleconnection forecasts lose skill after 10-14 days.

image.jpeg.e0216c5d5e2a12f9f9953d25367ee391.jpeg

image.jpeg.cc85a1fc57f2b1f72a60373828eed6ba.jpeg

 

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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is amazing with the big spike in the PNA ridge .

PNA spike and deep west based NAO and TPV roaring underneath could also be too much of a good thing ie cold but dry. But alas, all conjecture at this range and MUCH better than zero HL blocking and a hostile PAC. It isnt a shut the blinds pattern fo sho

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